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Friday, November 9, 2012
Final #TLT #PutCallRatio for Friday, November 9, 2012
*OFFER EXPIRES NOVEMBER 12th.
Comments on Euro Currency
Attached is a chart of the ECZ2.
The RISK OFF trade
remains in tact as treasuries and the dollar are bid this
morning.
Good news out of china has slowed the Aussie's decline and
makes our short bias in the euro that much more attractive. Price action in the ECZ2 is still negative and we would look to take profit on half of our short at
126.25 (approx 50% retracement of the up trend that began in July).
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Thursday, November 8, 2012
Final #TLT #PutCallRatio for Thursday, November 8, 2012
Daily #Equity #Markets Commentary Nov. 8 By @pnavarro88
Update 2 for Euro Currency by @JimIuorio
Attached is a chart of December Euro Currency (ECZ2).
We maintain our short bias and will do so until we have
settlement above 128.25.
We still believe that fiscal cliff
uncertainty will force the dollar higher and the market may
recycle European headlines that could disproportionately weaken
the Euro. We are not suggesting that there are not real and
new problems in Europe. We are only pointing out the markets
tendency to justify moves with hand picked headlines.
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Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Stock Market Timing Charts
Timer Chart: Down Volume to Up Volume Ratios are not at capitulation levels but CIs are flat. 1380 is 200-day MA and next key test for SPX. NDX today broke 200-day with AAPL totally unloved.
Wyckoff Chart: As you all recall from our last market timing webinar, our main concern here has been the sell-off in DJ Utils in the last two weeks. And, today we saw DJIA, DJ Trans & RUT punch thru their respective 200-day MAs.
SP1_momo Chart: Our weekly and daily timing models for SPX are still BUY on WEEKLY and BUY on DAILY (as of yesterday close). If 200 bar MA is punched thru (1380), next target becomes 1343. Keep in mind, these levels are adaptive.
Vol of the Vols Chart: Very minor bump in vol indices. Data still does not support any specific scenario yet.
No signal on TRIN Chart.
MAC+ Chart: Our MAC+ [synthetic] indicator was outstanding today. It was the main reason we were done trading for the day before 0900 CT. Just look at the 5-min MAC+ (right hand side chart) avalanche staying within -1 to -2 sigma channels. The 30-min MAC+ also went straight down (center chart).
As we pointed out on Saturday on @HunterKillerSub, next target is 55%. Today we closed at almost 61%.
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Bottom line: We should continue lower till Down Volume to Up Volume Ratios signal a capitulation.
Final #TLT #PutCallRatio for Wednesday, November 7, 2012
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Daily #Equity #Markets Commentary Nov. 07 By @pnavarro88
Update on December Euro Currency
Attached is a daily chart of December Euro Currency (ECZ2).
On Friday we initiated a short bias from 128.70. This morning's price action has provided incentive to increase shorts with an eye on 126.00 as objective. The election has caused a rush to the safety of the US Dollar and Treasuries. A resurfacing of negative European headlines should cause the Euro to be disproportionately punished compared to other currencies.
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Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Daily #Equity #Markets Commentary Nov. 6 By @pnavarro88
Final #TLT #PutCallRatio for Tuesday, November 6th, 2012
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Final #TLT #PutCallRatio for Monday, November 5th, 2012
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Monday, November 5, 2012
HFT Bonds Daily Video Analysis with @GCavaligos November 5, 2012
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Comments on Euro Currency
Attached is a daily chart of December Euro Currency (ECZ2).
There has been a clean breakout of the
previous support levels around 128.30.
At this point we would move our stop loss to a settle above
128.92. Ongoing uncertainty could
result in money moving into the U.S. Dollar and, so far,
the Euro has been the
first to be cast aside. Oddly, the fiscal cliff, which would be negative to the U.S. economy, would benefit the Dollar because of the reflexive
"risk-off" habit of market participants.
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Comments on Aussie Dollar
Attached is a 30 day chart of December Aussie Dollar (ADZ2).
We have maintained a short bias for several days with
little satisfaction and several brushes with stop levels. At
this point we will will tighten our stop-loss parameters to a
settle above 103.40.
As the dollar continues to benefit from
a "risk-off" trade, the Aussie has concurrently benefited from
better news from China, making the trade a wash...
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