Friday, July 24, 2015
Final #VX Futures Spread for Friday, July 24, 2015
CBOE Blog published a post explaining the last time this time-series were used to pinpoint the low of S&P-500 Index which was registered with TimerDigest.com on July 8th.
#ES_F #TF_F #NQ_F Bias Update and Levels for Friday, July 24, 2015
Other than NQU5
(due to AMZN’s earnings after the
close yesterday) ESU5/SPY and TFU5/IWM are still in a macro lower
high formation and now AAPL can be added
to the list as well. No doubt AMZN
ignited the squeeze in NQU5 but what
I took note to was the fact that ESU5 did not squeeze
in the same manner as NQU5 and TFU5 did absolutely nothing after AMZN reported.
The question now is will this Friday (today) be the same as the Friday
after GOOGL reported earnings which had NQ
flying to the moon while ES/SPY &
TF/IWM remained in a tight range chop
& grind session, or will ES
& TF/IWM catch up to NQ this time, or will the NQ rally be short-lived especially if AAPL does not rally today.
For today IWM needs
to remain below 124.80 and also
breach below 123 in order to remain in
the lower high formation with ease, ESU5/SPY
must hold below 2108s-2112s zone and
then breach below 2090, and AAPL must hold below 126.90 and then breach below 123.60.
Eye will be more on APPL
today more so than NQ, but I
will be watching the 4608 level for NQ as the line in sand (LIS) if
yesterday’s late day rally will hold or not.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 24, 2015
Eye is on 49.80 for
CLU5 today if above 49.05; if CLU5 does not breach above 49.80
there is still potential for CLU5
continuing lower to 47.50 (possibly
today) then 45s/44s in the coming
days/weeks.
If above 49.80 the
next area of interest is the low volume area (LVA) at 50.50. Once/if above 50.50
the bulls will surly have 51.40.51.60
zone on the radar as the key area to regain in order to have chance of heading
back towards 53s then 55s.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Thursday, July 23, 2015
Final #VX Futures Spread for Thursday, July 23, 2015
CBOE Blog published a post explaining the last time this time-series were
used to pinpoint the low of S&P-500 Index which was registered with TimerDigest.com on July 8th.
#ES_F #NQ_F & #IWM Bias Update & Levels for Thuesday, July 23, 2015
Right now all three indexes ESU5/SPY, NQU5/QQQ, and TFU5/IWM have macro lower highs to be Short against, especially in TFU5/IWM which has been a bearish
divergence for most of this week other than yesterday.
Today I will be looking to start new swing Short positions in all three indexes if
any or all three indexes bounce to +3Sigma
or even at center Sigma and I will
do so as long as ESU5 holds below 2114s, NQU5 holds below 4635s,
or IWM holds below 125.80. Once/if above these mentioned
levels I will negate my short-term Short
swing bias, and then re-engage at higher mapped out levels depending the
daily and 60min Sigma & CI indicators.
Once engaged in the swing index Shorts I will then be looking for ESU5 to breach below
2098s-2094s zone to confirm the Short
bias, NQU5 below 4578, and IWM below 123.55
otherwise there will be better chance of more sideways chop and grind before
another attempt to make new ATHs.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, July 23, 2015
Until CLU5 is first
above 49.75-49.80 zone then above 50.35 there is still potential for
lower. If so 48.70 is a potential
lower target for today and then 46s/45s
in the coming days/weeks.
Although the CLU5
short-term and macro charts are indicating lower I am not stalking a new swing Short until/if at higher levels; I am also not ready
to get Long yet either until once/if back above 49.80 or at
lower levels.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Wednesday, July 22, 2015
Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, July 22, 2015
CLU5 is now
breaching the key 50 level and until
first above 50.50-50.65 zone then
above 51 there is potential to head
towards 46s in the coming days/weeks.
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tuesday, July 21, 2015
#FXI Update Bias and Levels for Tuesday, July 21, 2015
For now FXI is
consolidating just below the 43.20-43.75
zone mentioned in several post and until above 43.75 there is chance of a lower high formation before heading lower. Once/if above 43.75 I will negate my current bearish bias
but for now the first key lower target is at 41.45-40.90 zone and if breached downside should resume back to
retest 38s.
If above 43.75
before lower there will be potential to reach 45.05-45.55 zone.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
#AAPL bias update ahead of earnings for Tuesday, July 21, 2015
All that can be said about AAPL is “High Expectations”
in fact very high. In my July 9th post I mentioned there was a very
good chance AAPL would likely grind higher
ahead of earnings if AAPL held above
the 120s-118s support zone pre-earnings,
which was the case. However I did not expect AAPL to go straight up and back to at/near ATHs and/or get through 127s/128s
with such ease before reporting earnings.
I also mentioned in my July 9th post that the
primary reason I am keeping a close eye on AAPL
is because the AAPL and ES emini/SPY charts have basically been identical
during the entire first half of the year in 2015, which I believe AAPL is playing a big role in holding
the S&P 500 within the range since
early this year (charts confirm) and doing so because of the “High Expectations” that AAPL's
iwatch sales would be the next catalyst for AAPL to soar higher and then also lead ES emini/SPY much higher as well.
In the July 9th post I talked about how I cannot get
excited about the iwatch until AAPL’s
watch does not need to be linked to a phone; this is why I am not so certain AAPL will meet the “High Expectations” regarding iwatch sales.
As for earnings today I will be very surprised if AAPL disappoints (or at least I will be surprised if AAPL disappoints in a
big way) but the question for me is will AAPL
be able to have massive bullish follow through in order to lead ES emini/SPY above the current range on
high volume if AAPL’s earnings are
anything less than last quarter, especially if earnings are not getting a boost
from iwatch sales ???
Every mutual fund, hedge fund, & retail investor is
already fully invested in AAPL so I
do not see new buyers stepping in (on heavy volume) above the range since
February without the catalyst of the “High
Expectations” from iwatch sales being achieved nor do I see strong upside potential other than an initial earnings short-covering
pop to 136s then 139s/140s targets, along with also having the
potential of short-lived upside if China starts to take a toll on iphone sales or
China starts to be on the minds of most investors.
Post earnings I will have an eye on the high volume area (HVA) at 128-126 zone for the remainder of the week to confirm if Longs are safe or if there will be potential that AAPL will not have the ability to lead or bring in new buyers above the range for ES emini/SPY.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, July 21, 2015
What was support is now resistance; until CLQ5 gets back above 51s
there is still potential for lower with 49.90
as a must hold today otherwise 49.40-49.30
zone then 48.50 are targets likely to
be reached before higher.
To negate reaching lower targets CLQ5 must first get and hold above 50.50 to breach the current downtrend channel then also get above 50.75-51.10 zone.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC