Friday, August 14, 2015
Final #VX Futures Spread for Friday, August 14, 2015
Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Friday, August 14, 2015
ESU5 Daily
center Sigma is now at 2091s and
until a daily close above the Daily center Sigma and also a close above the key
resistance zone I mentioned yesterday at 2096s-2098s
the lower high formation remains intact. However yesterday I also mentioned 2074s as a key support and if defended
the bull case from Wednesday’s reversal rally will likely or should be confirmed.
Buyers did protect 2074s
yesterday during RTH but then failed to reach and close above Daily center
Sigma which was at 2093s at
yesterday’s cash open. Today I will be looking for the same but today’s support
I am eyeing is at 2070s/69s unless
the Bulls and/or RTH BTDers succeed in getting ESU5 back in value/+2078s;
if so the zone which must get breached in order to head towards Daily center
Sigma is 2083s-2085s.
If below 2070s/69s
before higher the final or line in sand (LIS) for the bulls to defend is 2061s otherwise Wednesday’s rally will
be negated and the lower high formation will most likely continue with follow
through heading into next week.
Today’s lower high formation threshold for IWM is at 120.75-121.35 zone with a new lower target
at 117.40s now that the previous 118s target was reached this week. For
NQUS the lower high formation threshold
is at 4545s/4546s.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Thursday, August 13, 2015
Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Thursday, August 13, 2015
Today will be all about confirmation to confirm yesterday’s ESU5 rally or if yesterday’s rally will
just be a one day event. The ideal scenario for the bull case is a “back test”
to value; either a back test to last
week’s value area low (VAL) at 2074s
or to yesterday’s VAH at 2071s or
both. If so and if value holds the
bull case will likely be confirmed; however the overnight (OVN) high for ESU5 is exactly Daily center Sigma (yellow) at 2093s
and until a daily close above Daily
center Sigma the lower high formation I have been mentioning for several
weeks will have chance to remain intact.
If ESU5
does get above 2093s today the line
in sand (LIS) to keep the lower formation continuing again this week is at 2096s-2098s zone and if reached ESU5 will then have to reverse and
close back below Daily center Sigma
to avoid the potential of back to the slow, low volume, and chop & grind climb
back to new ATHs.
For IWM today’s threshold to remain in the lower high formation is at 121.75-122.10 zone and for NQU5 the threshold is at 4570-4588 zone.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Wednesday, August 12, 2015
Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, August 12, 2015
I am currently watching 44.55-45.15
zone as the first key resistance for
CLU5. All lower
targets I have been posting and mentioning over the past few weeks have all been achieved so now I am looking for bounces to either re-swing Short and/or confirmation for upside potential from oversold conditions.
targets I have been posting and mentioning over the past few weeks have all been achieved so now I am looking for bounces to either re-swing Short and/or confirmation for upside potential from oversold conditions.
If above 45.15 I
will then have an eye on last week’s value area high (VAH) at 46.60; until above 46.60 my bias will remain at slight bearish to neutral but if above
46.60 I will then have a bullish
bias for a target at 48.00-48.20
zone.
If below 43.00 before higher potential lower targets are at 42.10-41.90 zone then 40s/39s.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tuesday, August 11, 2015
Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Tuesday, August 11, 2015
Indexes remain in the lower high formation even after
yesterday’s extremely low volume rally which for now volume is definitely
confirming yesterday was just a Short
covering relief rally on the heels of another Greece headline along with help
from AAPL trading above last’s value
area +116.85.
Not only did ESU5 perfectly form a lower high right at the current downtrend line but the lower high was also
formed at Daily center Sigma which
will be key for the bulls to regain including also breaching and holding above 2105s as well in order to avoid the
lower high formation continuing again this week.
With many individual stocks, sectors, and world stock markets
already in correction mode I honestly cannot explain how the S&P500 is still holding within the
range of the past eight months other than holding range due to the Yellen Put
and/or hope of dovish Fed actions especially now that earnings have failed to
lead the S&P500 to new ATHs. However one thing I do know is
without volume or a catalyst to equal high volume to new ATHs any new ATHs on low
volume will likely just be a repeat of all of 2015 which means new highs will again be short-lived during the topping process.
For today IWM must
first regain 123 to negate the lower
high formation otherwise 118s is the
next lower target, ESU5 must first regain
2096s-2098s zone, and NQU5 must first regain 4586s/87s.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
