Friday, August 21, 2015
Thursday, August 20, 2015
Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, August 20, 2015
If CLV5 can get through the low volume area (LVA) above 43.30 I have an eye on a potential new swing Short via USO Puts just below the CLV5 44.00 level. If reached I will build/add to the position at 44.35 and 44.80 with a stop just above CLV5 45.00.
If CLV5 is unable to reach 44s I will then expect more downside to mid-41s then 39s.
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Wednesday, August 19, 2015
Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, August 19, 2015
ESU5 SPY
S&P500 went from several weeks of a lower high formation
to a macro wedge this week within the 2015 eight month boring range and did so
on hope for no ¼ point rate hike in September due to more bad news
out of China, Oil making new lows this week, and the lowered guidance from
Walmart yesterday.
However and even though breaching the lower high formation the reality of both US and global bearish divergences finally seems to be
impacting the potential for new ATHs, which for me that confirmation is not
coming from today’s (Aug 19th) morning sell off but rather due to
the fact ESU5 continues and has now failed at getting and holding above Daily center Sigma several times so far in the 2nd half of 2015. New ATHs are now likely not to be seen unless a very
dovish Fed appears (??).
I continue to find it extremely funny (in fact hilarious) at
how the entire US stock market is solely and only dependent on a ¼ point
rate hike in September (or not) now that 2015 earnings have failed to lead the S&P500 to new ATHs. Everyone knows a ¼ or even a ½ point rate hike after six
years of zero interest rates will have little to no impact on the economy
and/or any impact to the day to day/pay check to check person which is about
82% of Americans.
What a small rate hike will affect is the easy money the US stock
market has made including all of the easy and artificial 800+ S&P500 points
on the heels of the “bad is good for stocks” QE3 era. This tells me the other
18% of Americans who participate in investing/trading (including 401ks) could
care less about the overall economy and is only concerned about the easy money coming
to an end or not, otherwise the reality of global economies, global stock
markets correcting, and low oil prices would already have the S&P500 well
into a long overdue correction from extremely (and artificial) overbought
conditions.
QE3 was nothing more than a way to artificially inflate assets
for the “wealth effect” through 401ks which now has the US stock market
addicted to the Fed. The “wealth effect” has been so important ever since unemployment
hit +9% that I will be willing to bet the government would not waste five years and waste resources to blame a “flash crash” on one trader if a “flash
crash” now happened in the opposite direction and was a “flash melt up” for an even better “wealth
effect”.
For now the S&P500 remains
out of reality due to its Fed addiction but the reality is “reality will catch
up” one day just like when realty returned after every American became an expert real estate investor overnight back in 2004-2008. This does not mean stocks like AAPL, FB, TSLA, NFLX, GPRO, DIS, and even TWTR do not have a fundamental “Growth” story and future; it just means these
stocks will correct technically regardless of fundamentals when the overall
market corrects which is definitely not a matter of “if” and only a matter of “when”
reality returns to US stocks.
For the remainder of the week or post Fed minutes I will have
an eye on 2088s-2094s zone and 2061s/60s for ESU5, for IWM 121.30 and 118, for NQU5 4546s and 4471s/70s, and for AAPL (a huge market leader) 116.60
and 114.45 then 112.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
