Friday, July 1, 2016
Friday, July 1, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe
Good morning. First day of a new month/quarter tends to lean toward buying, but after a 5% S&P 500 rally from the Monday lows, it’s difficult to balance between what *may* amount to profit taking to close the week and the strong trend which shows no weakness at the moment. So at this point the bias is neutral.
My intentions for the day are simple. The 8:30 CST cash open, above that price I intend to be a buyer only, below the open I could do anything, however since Monday the ESU6 has not seen much action below the RTH opening print.
Downside prices are 2088 (**) which I see as a very good early indicator, followed by 2085 (**) and then 2081 (*). Below 2080 the path to 2075 appears to be very clear of technical debris. To the upside, 2092 (*), 2100 (**) and 2120 (***) are all that has my attention.
Worth noting that It is the Friday before a three day holiday, can’t close the door on it being a quiet day, even though it’s first of the month. After all, a considerable amount of buy power has been used this week.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Thursday, June 30, 2016
#NFLX Bias & Levels Update for Thursday June 30, 2016 by @mocktrade
NFLX bias is now
at neutral from bearish due to the breach back in the previous wedge which does
give buyers an edge; however until/if first above 92.30 then above the 78.6% Fib at 93.50 NFLX could or may now remain in a sideways pattern until
sometime after the July 4th holiday.
In order for NFLX to have a chance at pushing/holding above 93.50 the wedge must now contain otherwise if breaching back out of the wedge to the downside
again and then also breaching below the line in sand (LIS) at 87.00 the 82s and 80s-78s zone
targets will be back on the on the table.
Ethan Premock Futures & Options Strategist at Hamzei
Analytics, LLC
#PCLN Bias & Levels Update for Thursday June 30, 2016 by @mocktrade
Originally and before both the June FOMC rate decision and
Brexit I was holding a bullish bias for PLCN
and I was in hope for a exit out of the Call side of a Strangle from/if a follow
through move (with legs) above the 1385s
resistance. PCLN did breach above 1385 on Thursday the day before Brexit but
unfortunately the move occurred on very low volume and was also very short-lived,
which then forced me to hold through the Brexit vote.
Then on Monday (June 27th) PCLN had continual bearish follow through from Friday so I started
to look at potential supports to exit out of the Put side for a profitable Strangle
rather than the Call side. The first key support I saw was at the bottom of a
low volume area (LVA) at 1161s/60s.
Thankfully the 1161s/60s
target was reached which allowed me to exit the Strangle with a decent (not
huge) profit after an almost full 250 point reversal.
Now I am taking note to the fact that although PCLN is currently trading a little more
than 100 points above Monday’s low PCLN
in not in the same type rally mode as the overall market, and is also losing energy
at about the middle of a 100 point range between 1303 & 1203. This has me eyeing another (new)
Strangle entry if PCLN now trades sideways for the rest of the week between 1285 & 1240. If so I plan to engage today/tomorrow with a September or
October expiration.
Once/if engaged in the new Strangle I will then be looking
for either a move above 1303s
once/if first breaching above 1291
or a move below 1203s once/if first below
1228s.
Ethan Premock Futures & Options Strategist at Hamzei
Analytics, LLC
Thursday, June 30, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe
Good morning. Impressive resilience by global equities with a continued (but weaker) bid overnight. At this point convictions are likely useless. I bought some lotto puts into the close yesterday (mentioned in the room) from a pure risk/reward viewpoint as a 85 handle rally *seemed* excessive without any pullback.
For bears, they need for the ESU6 lower high in the European session to help push back through the 2056 Globex low and maybe with the quarter end trade, there could be some push back to 2050 (at least)
Bulls, just need a higher low, which gives them a lot of room at this point, price could retrace back to 2040 and bulls be theoretically OK.
Today I’ll be simple. If price is above the cash open then I will only be long, if below the open then I will lean short but be open to buying because for the moment, it is a buyers market.
Levels to the downside are 2062 (**) and 2056 (*). Below 2056 I don’t have anything until 2045 (*). Upside interest is 2067 (*) which I will use as an early risk marker then 2075 (*) followed by 2080 (***) area which I would expect to see considerable resistance.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
Wednesday, June 29, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe
Good morning. Another run higher for global equities last night that helped the ESU6 push up to 2043.50. The mini is now over 60 handles from Monday’s low and 2050 roughly marks the halfway point from last weeks’s high to Monday’s low. I have a difficult time assuming that equities will make a V-shape recovery and expect at least somewhat of a retest of this weeks lows (at some point) while forcing bulls to make a lower high on the daily chart. Having said this, I am still in a macro sell the rallies mode until 2050-2060 proves support. To me, the risk/reward looks favorable for some lotto type puts and I am starting to price week 1 and week 2 options.
Price levels to the downside are: 2032 (**) 2028 (**) 2023 (*) 2019(*) 2014 (***)
Upside prices: 2050 (**) 2054 (**) 2060 (**) and 2064 (***)
For me, 2041 is the pivotal price heading into the cash open and I lean to trading with whomever controls that area.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tuesday, June 28, 2016
#NFLX Bias & Levels Update for Tuesday June 28, 2016 by @mocktrade
As today’s first hour of trading comes to an end NFLX is trying to get back in the wedge
which was breached for the first time yesterday. Now if buyers fail to regain 88.95 today’s upside will likely just
be a technical relief rally following Brexit.
Buyers will gain an edge if above 88.95 but even if so buyers will still have some work to do to
avoid lower highs forming anywhere below last week’s weekly VAH at 91.70. If above 88.95 the possible areas sellers may try to defend and form a lower
high are at 90.30-90.55 zone then 91.60-91.70 zone with 92.30 being the line sand (LIS) for
sellers. If above 92.30 the 78.6% Fib at 93.50
will become the next upside target.
If the wedge does hold as resistance today/tomorrow and definitely if NFLX pushes back below 87.00 before higher I will then go back
to a full bearish bias for a current pre-Brexit Strangle which will now have
potential lower targets at 82s then 80s-78s zone.
Ethan Premock Futures & Options Strategist at Hamzei
Analytics, LLC