Friday, July 15, 2016
Friday, July 15, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe
Good morning. Overnight, Globex failed to make any real noise on volume hitting 200K at 7:00 am CST. This week Globex has seen gains of +37.5 handles compared to cash hours that has seen a loss of -.75 handles. With the overnight breaking the higher trend and trading flat, I would expect for today to have the best chance of the week to actually close negative by more than a handle or two given some potential end of week profit taking and possible mid month rebalancing. Expiration Friday’s tend to be relatively strong however in July they are basically flat.
Having said this, I am not necessarily anticipating a down day but giving it best odds of the week. It looks like another quiet 10-12 handle cash range unless this mornings economic numbers cause any unforseen noise.
Levels to the downside are 2153 (*) early pivot then 2155 (*) initial support followed by 2151 (*) then 2146 (**) which I would expect to be a good buy opportunity today.
Higher levels are 2160 (*), if that level breaks early the initial target would be the 2168 high followed by 2171 (*) and 2176 (*).
I may give the opening range a look today but overall I am unbiased and want to be on the side of the opening print, long above, short below with the exception of a possible early morning low that I’d be willing to buy.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Thursday, July 14, 2016
Wednesday, July 13, 2016
Wednesday, July 13, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe
Good morning. Volume is not slowing down as much as I anticipated with yesterday’s 1.7 million traded mini’s but price certainly is slowing as it feels that it is winding up tight.
Last two days had similar price action, buying the open paid very small while buy the early pullback paid the daily range. With Globex volume slowing down (157K this morning going into 6:45 am CST) I am becoming less optimistic about buying opens except on smaller size but will try to continue to buy an early low.
At some point this week, I expect an early low to fail to hold but until it does I have to keep trading the trend, after all is it Jul Expiration week which tends to have positive stats. I am also thinking that the upside is feeling limited and I have become willing to find a spot or two above to fade this week on smaller size as I would think out of three remaining days that there will be one of each higher/lower/flat closes but I cannot say in which particular order.
Downside prices: 2145 (*) early downside risk marker/pivot followed by 2141 (*) below that I’ll watch yesterday’s RTH low at 2138 (*) then 2134 (**) and 2130 (**).
To the upside: 2147 (*) is a higher risk marker/ early pivot then 2149-50 (*) area which is yesterday’s high as well as my weekly risk marker referred to all week, then 2155 (*) which would be first target followed by 2160 (**) where I would expect gains today to be capped.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
