Friday, December 9, 2016
Friday, December 9, 2016 Morning Crude Comments from MB
Crude recapturing $50 handle yesterday now aiming for higher prices. I like selling the $51.95 price risking .35 to make 1.00, also like selling the $52.20, risking .25 to make 1.00. I like buying the $51.00 handle risking .25 to make .50.
$52.20 (***)
$51.95 (**) Second Higher Target + Resist
$51.55 (*) First Higher Target + Small Resist
$51.20 (*) Early Pivot
$50.95 (**) First Lower Target + Support
$50.70 (*) Second Target
$50.45 (**) Third Target + Support
$50.00 (***)
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Friday, December 9, 2016 Morning S&P Comments from Michael Blythe
Good morning. Quiet overnight, less than 5 handles of range, volume is around 80K mini’s in each the Dec and Mar contracts. Today I will be using the MAR levels in the report. Light calendar, I’m not expecting much.
2252 (***) Third Target + Resist
2249 (*) Target 2
2246 (**) First Higher Target + Some Resist
2240 (*) Early Pivot
2237 (*) First Lower Target + Small Support
2231 (**) Second Lower Target + Better Support
2228 (***) Pivotal
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Friday, December 9. 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MB
Good morning. Bond weakness continues. Only place I would buy is 148’00 but I don’t expect that to print today. Instead I’ll look to sell back through 148’24. I also like selling 149’16 with smaller size adding at 149’22, using a 12 tick stop on the average while targeting 24-32 ticks.
149’22 (***) Third Higher Target + Resistance Band Begins
149’16 (**) Second Higher Target + Some Resist
149’04 (*) First Higher Target
148’24 (*) Early Pivot
148’20 (*) First Lower Target
148’11 (**) Second Lower Target + Some Support
148’00 (***) Third Lower Target + Better Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Thursday, December 8, 2016
Thursday, December 8 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MB
Bond market was trying to build a floor for much of this week but just broke key areas as ECB hitting the wires.
I would not consider buying today (as of 7:00 am). I like fading a rally at the (**) levels. However, given the sensitivity of this market to ECB reaction, I am hesitant to give exact trade ideas.
151’19 (***)
151’09 (**) TGT 3 + Bears Need to Hold
151’00 (*) TGT 2
150’18 (*) First Higher Target + Small Resist
150’06 (**) Pivotal for Control
149’17 (*) TGT 1
149’11 (*) TGT 2 + Small Support
148’30 (*) TGT 3 + Small Support
148’11 (***)
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Thursday, December 8, 2016 Morning Crude Comments
Crude $50 gave way, intraday charts showing lower highs and lower lows, now the question is, how sufficient is a 5% pullback?
If the morning is slow to moderate in terms of volatility, I like buying $49.70 with small size, risking .25 to make .50, or selling the $50.45 price risking .25 to make .75.
$51.00 (***)
$50.75 (*)
$50.45 (**) First Higher Target + Bears need to Defend
$50.00 (**) Pivotal
$49.70 (**) First Lower Target + Support
$49.39 (*) Second Lower Target
$49.08 (*) Third TGT + Some Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Wednesday, December 7, 2016
Wednesday, December 7, 2016 Morning Crude Comments from MB
Crude now having trouble with the $51.00 handle, increasing the likelihood we get a test of the $50.00 psyschological/technical level today. Given the EIA # today, going to have to widen entry criteria at least somewhat depending on volatility.
My ideas for the day do not include holding any position into the 9:30 # without a break even stop. However, a first hour (8:00-9:00 cst) or 10:30 - later test of $50.00 I like buying risking .15 to make .45. I’d also attempt to buy $49.70 anytime today, risking .25 to make .75.
From the sell side, I like selling $51.00 and adding at $51.20, risking .25 on the ave, while targeting .75.
$51.25 (***) TGT 3 + Strong Resist
$51.00 (**) TGT 2 + Stronger Resist
$50.75 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist
$50.50 (*) Early Pivot
$50.20 (*) First Lower Target
$50.00 (**) Second Target + Support
$49.70 (**) Thirdy Target + Support
$49.10 (***)
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Wednesday, December 7, 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MB
Small rally in bond market overnight, but a persistent market trying to lift a bid, another two handles higher and I think it will be a gift for shorts.
As for today, I like shorting the 151’20 price with smaller size and adding at 151’26, risking 16 ticks on the ave to make 32 ticks minimum. As an alternative, I could see having a smaller position buying 150’15 and adding small at 150’04, using a 12 tick stop on the ave to make 24-32 ticks. However, I like the sell much better.
151’26 (***) TGT 3 + Strong Resist Zone Begins
151’20 (**) Higher TGT 2 + Better Resist
151’08 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist
150’31 (*) Early Pivot
150’15 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support
150’04 (**) Lower TGT 2 + Some Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tuesday, December 6, 2016
Tuesday, November 6, 2016 Morning Crude Comments
One of my ideas triggered yesterday, buying $51.10 looking for a .50 move, and we just barely got that overnight, and this morning Crude is looking weak after making a lower high, now it’s making a lower low as it appears that the $50 price could be tested soon.
I think over $50, and I still have to look to buy dips. My idea for the day is buying $50.20 small and adding at $50.00, risking .25 to make .75.
$51.60 (*) Second TGT + Some Resist
$51.30 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist
$51.00 (*) Early Pivot
$50.50 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support
$50.20 (*) Lower Target 2 + Some Support
$50.00 (***) Pivotal
$49.70 (**)
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tuesday, December 6, 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MB
Good morning. Somewhat of a mixed bag since yesterday in the Treasury complex and so the bias has to remain to the trend which is lower. Yesterday, If you took both trade ideas then we did well on both sides, however the short idea from the 150’29 ave need a break of 150’10 to get the full handle, I am bidding 150’13 on half and moving stop to break even.
For today: I only want to be short below 150’10. Only new idea today is selling 151’04 with small size, risking 16 ticks to make 32 ticks.
151’20 (***) TGT 3 + Resist
151’08 (**) TGT 2 + Resist
150’30 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist
150’21 (*) Early Pivot
150’10 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support
149’26 (*) Second Target
149’10 (***) Third Target + Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
