Friday, December 16, 2016
Friday, December 16, 2016 Morning S&P Comments from Michael Blythe
Good morning. Bulls did what they needed, rebuilt a floor at 2250 and is using that to push higher. It’s an expiration Friday with bulls in charge, not out of the cards for a grind up to new highs or at least pushing close to 2270. Going to return to quiet and thin.
2273 (**) Third Target + Resist
2269 (*) Second Target + Some Resist
2264 (*) First Higher Target
2260 (*) Early Pivot
2256 (*) First Lower Target + Small but maybe good enough support
2252 (**) Second Lower Target + Support
2248 (***) Third Lower Target + Bulls Better Show up
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Friday, December 16, 2016 Morning Crude Comments from MB
Volume finally moving into the Feb contract with the overnight volume slightly higher than the Jan. So all levels are CLG7 now.
I like buying $51.60, risking .20 to make .50 or selling $52.88, risking .20 to make .50 and selling $53.15, risking .25 to make $1.00
$53.18 (***) TGT 3 + Resist
$52.88 (**) TGT 2 + Resist
$52.55 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist
$52.36 (*) Early Pivot
$51.97 (*) First Lower TGT
$51.58 (**) TGT 2 + Support
$51.10 (***) TGT 3 + Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Friday, December 16, 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MB
Return to orderly Treasury future trade yesterday. The 30 year trying to build at least a temporary floor. Over the last few weeks it has been normal to see about three sessions sideways to higher leading to a 2-3 handle bounce and then sellers reinitiate. I think the path of less resistance today, is weakness during the morning at least.
I like being short right now 148’24 as volume comes in at the open with a 8 tick stop looking for the first lower target. I like buying 148’12 small, with the potential of adding at 148’02, risking 10 ticks on the average, while looking for a bounce back to 149’00, or 24-25 ticks.
I like selling 149’16 and adding at 149’24, using a 12 tick stop on the average while looking for 32 ticks.
149’24 (***) Third Target + Best Resist
149’16 (**) Second Target + Better Resist
149’08 (*) First Higher Target + Small Resist
149’00 (*) Early Pivot
148’12 (**) First Lower Target + Some Support
148’02 (***) Second Lower Target + Better Support
147’04 (***)
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Thursday, December 15, 2016
Wednesday, December 14, 2016
Wednesday, December 14, 2016 Morning S&P Comments from Michael Blythe
Good morning everyone. Very quiet overnight trade preparing for FOMC. The market doesn’t seem to be expecting much of a response today, and I agree. However, markets often times defy expectation.
2290 (***) TGT 4 + Resist
2282 (*) TGT 3
2274 (**) TGT 2 + Resist
2269 (*) First Higher Target + Small Resist
2265 (*) Early Pivot
2260 (*) First Lower Target + Small Support
2255 (*) TGT 2
2249 (**) TGT 3 + Better Support
2240 (**) TGT 4 + Support
2233 (***) Pivotal
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Wednesday, December 14, 2016 Morning Crude Comments from MB
Hello. Volume is still in the Jan CL future so I am continuing to use that. Crude seems to be lingering lower to fill the gap from Friday’s close. This market is technically bullish, as well as fundamentally and seasonally bullish (short term, with some variations). Crude could be vulnerable to some excitement today with EIA # and FOMC.
Only place I am looking to buy is $51.50, risking .25 to make $1.00. I like selling $53.10, risking .20 to make .50
$53.40 (***) TGT 5 + Resist
$53.20 (**) TGT 4 + Resist
$53.00 (**) Third Higher TGT + Resist
$52.80 (*) Second TGT + Small Resist
$52.53 (**) First Higher Target + Some Resist + Bears Make their stand here
$52.18 (*) Early Pivot
$51.90 (*) First Lower Target + Small Support
$51.48 (***) Second TGT + Pivotal Support + Bulls can’t lose
Below $51.48 I’m watching round numbers $51.00, $50.50, $50.00 etc
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Wednesday, December 14, 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MB
Hello and welcome to FOMC day. I expect a quiet morning trade before the volatile afternoon. It’s difficult (for me) to anticipate the market reaction to this Fed day. I have internal reasons to suspect either a quieter than usual reaction or stronger than usual reaction. My levels today are a little more macro, in the event of a more substantial reaction.
Before noon, I like buying 149’08 risking 8 ticks to make 16 or buying 148’18 risking 8 to make 24. Or selling 150’02 risking 8 to make 16.
*The above ideas are only good pre Fed and assume flat into the meeting *
I believe the stronger levels to be relevant today, but obviously cannot anticipate what I would do having yet to see the reaction to FOMC.
151’14 (***) TGT 4 + Resist
150’29 (***) TGT 3 + Resist
150’12 (**) TGT 2 + Resistance
150’02 (**) First Higher Target + Resistance
149’22 (**) Early Pivot
149’08 (*) First Lower Target + Fair Support
148’18 (**) Lower TGT 2 + Good Support
148’07 (*) Lower TGT 3 + Fair Support
147’10 (***) TGT 4 + Pivotal
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tuesday, December 13, 2016
Tuesday, December 13, 2016 Morning Crude Comments from MB
Seems like crude gave bulls a gift yesterday giving them an opportunity to buy in regular session. Now bulls need to make higher lows and higher highs. I like fading the resistance zone, starting small at $53.70 adding small at $53.80 and $53.90. Risking .25 on ave to make .75 on ave. I like buying $52.60 small, risking .20 to make .50.
$54.50 (***) Target 3
$54.20 (*) Target 2
$53.90 (**) Top of Resist Zone
$53.80 (*) First Higher Target
$53.70 (*) Resistance Zone Begins
$53.45 (*) Early Pivot
$53.00 (*) First Lower Target
$52.60 (*) Second Lower TGT + Some Support
$52.15 (**) TGT 3 + Better Support
$51.80 (*) TGT 4
$51.50 (***) TGT 5 + Pivotal Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tuesday, December 13, 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MB
Hello. Light calendar today. Quiet, buy the dip action in the 30 year overnight. Looking at yesterday’s rally and some overnight follow through, I think bonds could continue to see higher into the FOMC decision.
I am willing to buy lower with smaller size. 148’23 and adding at 148’16. Risking 12 ticks on the ave to scale at 16 and 24 tick profits. I like selling the 149’22 price small, adding small at 149’28 and 150’02 (if necessary) risking 10 ticks on the ave to make 24 ticks.
150’02 (***) Target 3 + Good Resist
149’28 (*) Target 2 + Still in Resist Zone
149’22 (***) First Higher Target + Good Resist
149’09 Price as of this writing (just a reference)
148’23 (**) Early Pivot – Bias Long Above + Short Below
148’16 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support
148’08 (*) Lower TGT 2 + Some Support
147’26 (*) Target 3
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
