Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on May 12, 2008

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Fari Hamzei


Today, finally the Shorts were handed their heads, as Nasdaq-100 (NDX) closed above its MR1 (Monthly Resistance One) Level. This is a multi-month breakout and almost a new high for 2008. SPX is poised to do the same shortly (its MR1 is at 1418xx) and then next it will challenge its 200 Day Mov Avg now approximately standing at ~1429.

Stay LONG....we like oil services and select techland names here.

There will be no mid-week comments from me as I will be speaking at The Three Gurus Event (http://www.thethreegurus.com/) in Las Vegas.

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday May 2nd, 2008

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Fari Hamzei

As we wrote last night for our MSA List Members, we felt that early this week, FED knew the April NFP will come in better than consensus estimate and that is why they signaled they may be done lowering rates for now... historically, any time FED stopped lowering the FF rates, it boded well for all Equities. So, STAY LONG as SPX yesterday broke a multi-month breakout channel...

and Trade with Courage.

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 25, 2008

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Fari Hamzei

With a bid to the Financial (most sold sector in Q1) last two days, we shall stay the course. Our Market Pulse Indicator (MPI) is a bit stretched but with SPX trading very clearly in the Zone (+1 to +2 sigma), all is well with our Long SPX Position on April 10 (~1360). Our next target for DJIA sits at ~13075 (200 day MA) to ~13150 (+3 simga) confluence.

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Fari Hamzei


"And, Nostradamus, shall lead them...."

With SPX and NDX closing at two sigma, and McClellan Oscillator readings of 168 and 94, we are a bit stretched. But there is huge bid to the market and I doubted this bid will wane till we go thru AAPL Earnings Report on Tuesday AH.

DJIA, having gone thru our 12,700 multi-month channel breakout target, is now poised to hunt down the current levels of +3 sigma (12,987) and 200 Day MA (13,093) confluence.


By the way, next Wednesday morning, Alexis Glick, the very cute & very smart anchor (a five sigma event by itself) for FOX Business Network has invited me to her "The Opening Bell" segment @ their NYC HQ, so there will be no mid-week commentary from me. Alexis, a former head of NYSE Floor Operations for Morgan Stanley & Co and a Columbia grad, is as smart as they come. We just linked her blog to to this blog.

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 11, 2008

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Fari Hamzei

Technically, the damage caused pre-open today by Jeff Immelt & Co was heavy, GE being the 3rd largest US company by market cap. SPX closed below zero sigma (20 day MA) and NDX stopped exactly at zero sigma. McClellan Oscillators closed at -30 and -36 for NYSE and NAZZ, respectively. With this backdrop, next week could be pretty tough for the longs. We have Q1 Earnings, Tax Selling and April OX. Sounds like the script was written in a backroom of Central Casting.

As you know, we went long as of Thursday close (1360.54). While we are not panicking yet, nonetheless, we are alarmed at the huge miss by one of the most reliable reporting companies (and still the only original member of Dow 30).

But next week is another week, and God willing, we shall fight another battle.

Notice of the Change of Our Market Bias

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Fari Hamzei


From: Fari Hamzei [mailto:Fari@HamzeiAnalytics.com]
Sent: Friday, April 11, 2008 4:42 AM
To: Jim Schmidt (Timerdiges@aol.com)
Subject: Timer of the Year Competition



Dear Jim,

We are going LONG SPX as of Close of Thursday, April 10 @ 1360.54.
Please confirm the receipt of this email.




All the best;


Fari Hamzei
Founder
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

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This Timer Chart is for our readers.

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 4, 2008

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Fari Hamzei

As of this writing (1 hour before the close on Friday, April 4th), we are in an extremely overbought condition (+195 reading on NYSE McClellan Osc and +137 for NASDAQ) -- thus, a pause is in order next week before the April OX, the following week!!!

Given that the equity markets reacted well to the March Non-Farm Payroll's -80K bad news, this tell us that six months down the road, we should be trading higher. Again we re-iterate our belief that the bad news is priced in and the Street is viewing the FED rescue of BSC from a near catastrophe as pro-active.

On a pull-back, we plan to go long SPX again for your coveted "Timer of the Year Competition."

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Editors' Note: Per March 31st, 2008 Issue of Timer Digest, Fari is ranked 1-1-2 in the Nation among 150 market timers. That is 1st in the last 3 months, 1st in the last 6 months and 2nd in the last 12 months.

Notice of Change of Market Bias

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From: Fari Hamzei [mailto:Fari@HamzeiAnalytics.com]
Sent: Tuesday, April 01, 2008 2:12 PM
To: 'Timerdiges@aol.com'
Subject: Notice of Change of Market Bias


Dear Jim,

For your coveted Timer of the Year Competition, we are going NEUTRAL on S&P-500 Stock Cash Index (SPX) at the CLOSE today. Please confirm your receipt of this email.

Fari Hamzei
Founder
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

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Additional notes for our readers:
Our reasoning is very simply -- we are up some 90+ handles since March 17.
It is too good to give up and we are very overbought here with NYSE McClellan Oscillator (A/D Line) reading of ~155 and SPX is at +2 sigma ....Fari

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday March 28, 2008

Tweet Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday March 28, 2008

Fari Hamzei

When the McClellan Oscillators hooked earlier this week, the short-term trade was to sell the market indices. Don't be fooled, the longer trend is still up and we should be oversold shortly as this is all part of the bottoming process.

Stay the course and enjoy the Spring Madness...

Markt Timing Bias Change

Tweet Markt Timing Bias Change

March 17, 2008

Fari,

We have logged your S&P 500 Buy signal as of the 03/17/08 Close.

Thanks,

Jim

---

In a message dated 3/17/2008 3:59:26 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time, Support@HamzeiAnalytics.com writes:


Dear Jim,

For your coveted Timer of the Year Competition, we are going LONG S&P-500 Stock Cash Index (SPX) at the CLOSE today. Please confirm your receipt of this email.

Cheers............

All the best;

Fari Hamzei

Founder

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Next Seminar: The Three Gurus in Las Vegas

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Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday March 14, 2008

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Fari Hamzei

This week, Uncle Ben and Comrade Paulson, with a coordinated attack plan in their back pocket, came in to rescue the Credit Markets, in general, and now we find out, the Bear Stearns & Co. (NYSE: BSC) in particular. BSC is an 85-year old primary broker dealer for the Treasury Bills, Notes and Bonds. All of this ahead of Spring Equinox and Mar OX.

Market smelled blood and went short big time. It is a bleak Friday on both Wall Street and Main Streets. With low Consumer Confidence numbers, record gold and oil prices, and a big investment house having its market cap getting clipped by 50%, the bottoming process is well under way.

Given the most recent market action (near -2 sigma on major indices), we fully expect that The President's Working Group on Financial Markets, better known as PPT, will move in next week and that is the time to hunt for some bargains. Novices better stay on the sidelines till the dust settles.

We Closed our Short SPX Position with Timer Digest

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Fari Hamzei

The following email went out to our MSA List Members this morning at 1037 CST (w/o the chart).


Timer Digest just confirmed that we are FLAT SPX as of last night close.

NYSE McClellan Oscillator yesterday hit -279 while NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator closed at -179. DJIA, SPX, DJ Trans & RUT each closed just a tad above -3 sigma, NDX was at -3 sigma, VIX, VXO & VXN closed above +2 sigma.



So late last night, we decided to cover our SPX SHORT position from 1507 (put on 6/8/07) and booked 234 SPX points for now.

Again we repeat, we are NOT LONG SPX here. We are FLAT SPX. If and when we go LONG, we will update you all immediately.

Timer Digest Market Commentary

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Fari Hamzei


"And, Nostradamus Shall Lead 'em....."


As Uncle Ben & Co. pre-empted the BLS' Feb NFP Release early this morning, much to the liking of GW, Dick Cheney and the rest of the usual suspects on both ends of the Pennsylvania Ave. in Washington, it was a different story on Wall Street. The Smart Money sold, and sold relentlessly. And, as the Mortgage Mess CEOs showed up to defend their 8-digits pay packages on the Hill, the fall in share prices steepened.



Pre-open we had warned that today could be a negative 300 day on the Dow. Well, we closed half as much on normal volume. This tells us the bleeding should continue as VIX, VXO and VXN patterns have not reached an climatic structure from a sigma channels standpoint.



Could we see that pattern completed next week? We don't think so. Not so fast at least.

But....the following week is March Options X featuring FOMC Meeting on Tuesday, March 18th and Quadruple Witching Expiration on Thursday, March 2oth. Good Friday, March 21st, falls on the Spring Equinox (often an inflection point). And, indeed, this Spring, could be a time for renewal on Wall Street and the Main Street. But first, we do need to go thru a FLUSH of the weak longs by then.


Have a great weekend ...... STAY SHORT a little bit longer!!

Timer Digest Market Commentary

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Fari Hamzei

Our early morning call today for DJIA touching its -1 sigma price (~12250) was covered by Robert Gray on FOX Business Channel at the bottom of the last hour of the market. Our next target is -2 sigma on SPX which today stands at 1316.




Our Equity Markets are in the process of building a bottom but the WEAK LONGs have to take in more pain in the short term. Look for a big volume day with a huge (4 to 5 sigma) spike on VIX, VXO and VXN. We are not there yet !!



Editors' note: This commentary was sent to Timer Digest about 14:50 CST today.

Timer Digest Market Commentary

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Fari Hamzei


We again reiterate our position: SELL SHORT & HOLD...

Here is why:

Sub-prime writedowns continue to resurface by the "usual suspects" announcing on both sides of the Pond (CONUS and Western Europe). The Three Amigos' hands (Uncle Ben, Comrade Paulson & Chris Cox) are all but tied behind their backs. They can no longer drop FF rate unilaterally as depicted by recent rise in Gold and Crude Oil spot/forward prices. With UofMich Senti at 16-yr lows due to high energy prices, falling home prices and credit concerns, consumers continue to worsen their sentiment and economic outlook. And now the inflation expectations component is edging back up.


Editors' note: This was sent to Timer Digest about 01:32 CST today.

Timer Digest Market Timing Commentary

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Fari Hamzei

With Feb Options X this week and overall negative sentiment in every traders' mind, it is not a surprise that market participants have been dumping stocks on Fridays. This week is a slow economic news week which will make the popular stocks bleed further.

Be aware of expiration week reversals -- come Tuesday or Wednesday of the expiration week........till then stay short your core positions... we should see 11,700 on DJIA before the next dead cat bounce commences.

Cheers......

Timer Digest Market Commentary

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Fari Hamzei

Given that on Feb. 1st, the McClellan Oscillators for NYSE & NASDAQ went into a massive over-bought condition, the sell-off this week should not be a surprise to any avid student of our markets. Our current target is 1267 area on SPX (down to -3 sigma).



What was interesting is the intensity of big names being discarded, i.e., GOOG, RIMM, AAPL and CME. These were the darlings of Wall Street during the run-up last year.

Here is Sigma Channels for SPX Volatility Index (VIX): Given that we are still at +1 sigma, this leg down has ways to go (up to +3 sigma).




At this point, ceteris paribus, we fully expect the January lows to be exceeded (to the downside) since the reversal on Jan. 23rd did NOT come from oversold conditions and which told us (as we mentioned here before) the ensuing run-up will not be more than a dead cat bounce.

STAY SHORT.......

Timer Digest Market Commentary

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Fari Hamzei

While the Equity and Debt Markets were having a wild ride on Tuesday, Uncle Ben joined the White House to pressure Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid & Co. to move faster on a gigantic Stimulus Package. The real facts are a) Washington is too slow to move effectively in this Internet Age and b) the damage done by the Subprime Go-Go Days is simply huge.

The collective brain of the market is smarter than all of the above. While we may have seen a short-term-bottom-in-progress yesterday, this is no more that a dead cat bounce. Tuesday action reminds me of April 4, 2000. There is a lot of pain ahead for the longs.

Here are some charts. We will get into more details in our Webinar this afternoon.


I wanted us to see a -300 or lower reading on NYSE Advance-Decline McClellan Oscillator as we did last March.



Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below 12K but NYSE Volume did not get over 3 Bils. Notice we did not reach -3 sigma as we did last Aug 16th.



Notice we almost hit 5 sigma on VIX. This is rare.

Timer Digest Market Commentary

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Fari Hamzei

We finally had our bounce last week. But the volume was so-so at best. This week, Financials and Big Oil are under pressure with Precious Metals up. Today, we witnessed a large number of high Dollar-weighted Put/Call Ratios for major equity names. It was very broad-based. It reminds us of late last February before the Big Drop.

Longs should be very careful here till we get closer to the FED Meeting on Dec 11th.

Timer Digest Market Commentary

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Fari Hamzei


With NYSE Advance-Decline McClellan Oscillator hooked up from deeply oversold levels (-261 on Monday), the short-term bounce is finally here. The Friday after Thanksgiving, seasonality charts remind us that we have a bullish bias. Going further out, what bothers me is that all the market timers are trying to pick the bottom somewhere in here, which tells me we are not close to THE bottom.



I am still looking for huge volume day with indiscriminate selling climax, accompanied with outlandish vol expansion. The good long entry is several days later when we observe the vol retest. Until then, SELL THE RALLIES.




Have a Great Thanksgiving and always remember to take care of the less fortunate ones.....