Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Get our options trades and market commentary faster on Twitter

Get our options trades and market commentary faster on TwitterSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

Here is our account http://twitter.com/HamzeiAnalytics

Follow us on Twitter -- it is FREE !!

Monday, March 23, 2009

It Is Time

It Is TimeSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei



Historically, a major bank bailout by Government is very bullish for the stock market 6 to 12 months hence.


Generous government financing announced today by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will underpin the so-called Public-Private Investment Program aiming to rid banks of up to $1 trillion in toxic asset-backed securities which are road blocking the economic recovery. Dept of Treasury kicked this Program off with $75-$100 billion that comes from its existing $700-billion bailout fund approved by Congress last fall. Both FDIC and Federal Reserve are also partners in this program to provide additional debt financing as a way to leverage up both TARP and TALF resources. This morning, both PIMCO and BlackRock have expressed strong interests to participate. This is all very good news.


This Program could be classified as the Mother of all Bank Bailouts. I say could, because, given all the recent false starts, it may take the Treasury up to couple months to properly set the Program up and then up 3 to 6 months to see any concrete results.
Given Stock Market is a forward discounting mechanism, it may be the right time to slowly step back in. As many of you know, to conserve capital, we scaled back our trading tremendously since October-November timeframe as our equity markets became over driven by outsized fear and not by logic. Now, with the events of last two weeks, my thinking is that we may want to slowly put our toes in. Initially, our trades will not be swinging for the fence. We need to hit a few singles and doubles first.


Given how everyone is on a very tight budget these days, we offer two avenues:


A) For the next three months, we will email 2 trades per month (from entry, stop management and exit instructions) to all MSA Members free of charge. This List has over 10,000 opted-in (3X of last year) and it may take several minutes to email out the order to all. The trades will be biased both long and short. As in the past, each trade will offer a rationale, a clear entry instruction (normally at a limit price) with a stop management price once we are in. Exit orders will be either limit or market orders.


B) Reduce our monthly fee by 50% for those who want to receive 1 to 3 trades per week very fast. Again, they will be both biased long and short. Here is the link http://www.hamzeianalytics.com/phoenix_spring_special.asp



And, do not miss our webinar this weekend. We will go over these items this Saturday and answer any questions you may have.

Thursday, December 25, 2008

Happy Holidays

Happy HolidaysSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

As this tumultuous year comes to a close, we are all grateful for our resilience in a very tough market. With volatility at the highest in a decade, coupled with heavy losses and redemptions at hedge funds, it has been truly bloody out there. The wisest course has been to lay low, waiting for clearer days to set sail again in these rough seas.

Yet at this holiday time we are reminded that the treasures of this world come and go. We must always be thankful, therefore, to God for our health and our confidence as we move forward. Above all, we must never forget those who are less fortunate during this Holiday Season.

Wishing you and yours peace and blessings at the Holidays, and a healthy and prosperous New Year.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

I think the worst is over

I think the worst is overSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

Last Wednesday thru Friday, NDX $wPut/Call Ratio hit 4.6, 5.9 & 40+ on huge $wVolume ($700M, $2.4B and $7.4B, respectively). That is a lot of put buying by the institutions (NDX options are NOT for mom & pop traders, even at normal vol levels (VXN stayed above 60 last week)). The last time we saw these $wPCR levels for NDX, it was during the 2001-2002 dotcom debacle.

For those of you who remember my calls on CNBC back then, the readings at these levels for NDX are very bullish 1 to 3 days forward. We should expect 100 pt move in NDX in 3 days (registered 41+ today) which means, most likely, the AAPL earnings report tomorrow after the close, will be viewed very favorably.

In addition, a major perma bear threw in the towel today, LIBOR had eased off overnight and US short-term interest rates went up. In the last hour, there was a lot of mutual fund buying today. This is all good for equities.

Bottom Line: The chance of revisiting the Oct lows is now highly diminished albeit not zero.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Warren Buffett has been buying here

Warren Buffett has been buying hereSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

"A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors."

from http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html

China is closed right now. This news will get more exposure over the weekend. Stay LONG !!!!

We like DDM, MOS, KBR, JPM, GS, MS, GE, DD, HIG, HPQ, QQQQ and SPY here.

Reg FD: We have established, for some of our affiliates (family and friends), long positions in the above names in the last two weeks for a long term hold (with no use of margin or leverage).

Saturday, October 11, 2008

What History Tells Us About the Market

What History Tells Us About the MarketSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122368241652024977.html

Friday, October 10, 2008

Food for Thought for this Chapter of our Journey Together

Food for Thought for this Chapter of our Journey TogetherSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

http://faithhopeandfiction.com/blog/comments.php?no=203

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