Outside Bar on SPX and Rapid Deceleration of NDX Momentum

Tweet Outside Bar on SPX and Rapid Deceleration of NDX Momentum

Fari Hamzei

These two observations, ahead of the much anticipated April Non-Farm-Payroll data to be released tomorrow at 0830 EDT, call for high level of vigilance and alertness. We discussed their ramifications in detail on the Twitter tonight.

Trade Well Tomorrow.

The Ord Oracle on SPX and Gold

Tweet The Ord Oracle on SPX and Gold

Tim Ord


Momentum is the name of the game for now and right now most momentum indicators are still moving higher (NYSE Summation index and Cumulative advance/decline line on chart above). Yesterday the SPX jumped through the 875 resistance and for now the 875 area made provide support. If the Momentum indicators don’t turn down for near term then the market may head to the January high near 940 level. We have draw a line from the 940 range which could turn into a Neckline of a Head and Shoulders bottom where the left shoulder came back at the November 08 lows. If the SPX tests the January highs on higher volume then that would be a very bullish development and give credit to the Head and Shoulders bottom pattern. A pull back still would be expect and could pull back down where the Left Shoulder bottom which is near 740 range. There is an old adage that says “Sell in May and Go away” and may hold true this year also. We will watch the Bullish Percent index, Summation index, Cumulative Advance/decline line and MACD closely for the next clues for a downturn in the market.


Above is the Venture Composite index ($CDNX). This index has around 528 small mining companies that are mostly small gold miners along with some small oil companies. This index is a gold proxy for small junior gold miners’ performance. In the middle window is the ratio between CDNX and XAU. When this ratio is rising is shows that the small gold miners (CDNX) is outperforming the big gold miners (XAU). In generals we expect this ratio to continue to rise for the longer term. What this ratio implies is that the smaller gold companies will outperform the larger gold companies in the months and possible years to come. However, we will wait to buy these issues until the pull back is complete. See next chart.


Above is GDX. We have labeled what we believe is the correct count for Elliott Wave. An Elliott Wave 5 was completed at the February high near 38. Currently GDX is performing a consolidation in the from of an ABC and GDX is about to start the next 5 count down in the “C” leg. The “C” should end near 27 which is also the bottom of Wave 4 and an Ideal place where normally consolidation end. From the 27 level, GDX should start another Elliott wave 5 count up that should not be less then the first Elliott wave 5 count up that started in October 08. The Elliott 5 count up from the 08 low traveled 22 points. Add 22 points to the next possible low near 27, would give an upside target to 47 at a minimum. A lot of times Wave 3 of larger degree (that is what the next wave up will be) is extended. Our view is that it will reach near 57. We still expect a pull back to possible 27 over the next several weeks so we will put off any new buys until then.

Market Timing Commentary as of Friday, May 1st, 2009

Tweet Market Timing Commentary as of Friday, May 1st, 2009

Fari Hamzei

As we mentioned on Twitter Saturday morning, we observed that market Vols are continuing to collapse [in a ~ 5.5-week cycle]. To see this from a better perspective, this week for the first time, we have included a second "Sigma of the Vols" chart. This second chart is Weekly. It allows us to step back and see a better picture. Even though to a naked eye, it looks as if the Vols have receded quite a bed (vs. last Fall high readings), both in absolute and relative values, the true short/term undercurrents are not so clear. This week we plan to data-mine our real/time datafeed for more unusual block-trade activity and it should be a good tell. More on that issue next week in our Saturday webinar. Suffice to say, that we are reading a few NYSE large liquidity providers may have had a lot to do with this.

In any event, our first target south for the Vols shall be -2 sigma on the Weekly chart. That puts the VXO/VXN/VIX Complex at approximately a 30 marker.






As we discussed last Sunday on this Blog, this week, as expected, NASDAQ-100 (NDX) tested its 200-day Moving Average (white curve in the right hand graph in the Timer Chart below) and the 1400 psychological level. The Timer Chart also shows that the McClellan Oscillators for NYSE and NAZZ eased off by Friday May 1st Close with readings of +133 and +67 (down from +167 and 86), respectively.

What is more important is that the Bearish Divergences we continue to see develop further in Prices vs McClellan Oscillators. Somewhere in here, somehow, a catalyst will force the Prices to give in. Again, brace yourself with a of tad of O-T-M ETF Puts as a low cost insurance here for your portfolio.


As the next chart, (our WEEKLY Wyckoff) shows, the volume was lower this week than last on higher index prices. Again this is not good.

Next notice DJ Transportation Index (lower left subgraph) is flat (and parallel with its 20-week Mov Avg -- thin yellow line) here. This Index normally telegraphs market expectation of general economy as a whole 6 to 9 month hence. It is FLAT here.

The lower right subgraph, the Russell 2000 (RUT), our favorite Small Caps Index, which gives us a sense of relative risk-taking by market participants in aggregate form, has a more gradual upward sloping graph and a lower Sigma Level compared to NASDAQ-100 (NDX), right above it. Market participants are piling into big caps to seek refuge from the market risk of small caps.

THIS IS NOT GOOD AT ALL for the LONG side of the Market.

Bottom Line: We should see some indices' price retracements soon. Maybe the catalyst will be the Money Center Banks Stress Tests Results, to be released a few trading hours before the April Non-Farm-Payroll, that which is slated for release on Friday May 8th at 0830 EDT.

Trade Well This Week.....

Twitter Challenge Update

Tweet Twitter Challenge Update

Fari Hamzei

As the Stock Index Futures closed today, our Twitter Followers met our challenge and pushed us over the 2,000 mark.

Brasil61 won a copy of my book, Master Traders, in the ReTweeting raffle that helped us push over the top.

Thank you all.

Market Timing Commentary as of Friday, April 24, 2009

Tweet Market Timing Commentary as of Friday, April 24, 2009

Fari Hamzei

As we mentioned in our Saturday Webinar, we think this week the key chart is NASDAQ-100 (NDX). With the 200 day Moving Average at 1399, a test of 1400 psychological level is a given.

The McClellan Oscillators for NYSE and NAZZ began heading up again on Thursday and Friday with readings of 167 and 86, respectively. Given the intensity of the advance we have had from March 9th lows, we should NOT categorize these readings as overbought. Since the index levels are just above +1 sigma, we expect a tad higher readings this week on both these Indices and Indicators before a pullback.

Notice CIs are lit RED and in case of NDX, it still has an upward slope.


What is more important is the Bearish Divergence we continue to see in Prices vs McClellan Oscillators. Somewhere in here, the prices will give in. Brace yourself with a of tad of ETF puts a low cost insurance. Also worth noting is a slight upward bias in volume at both exchanges.

Vols are continue to get washed out of our system. That is a good sign. Again, we will go into full alert if we see a -3 or -4 sigma reading for VXO and/or VXN (see chart below).


We remain midly bullish for a few more days but one must be very alert here.

Master Tarder Jeffrey Spotts on Fox Business Channel

Tweet Master Tarder Jeffrey Spotts on Fox Business Channel

Fari Hamzei

Do not miss Hedge Fund Manager Jeffrey Spotts (who contributed to Master Traders) on Fox Business Channel talking about Ford Motor Co. (F)

Here is the link:
http://www.foxbusiness.com/video-search/m/22153362/time-for-a-stock-fiesta.htm

Timer and Vols Charts (used in our last Webinar)

Tweet Timer and Vols Charts (used in our last Webinar)

Fari Hamzei

We are Overbought with McClellan Oscillator reading of +223. Notice CI is lit RED but still with positive (rising) slope.


Vols are beginning to get washed out of our system. That is a good sign. We need to see a -3 or -4 sigma reading for VXO and VXN.

TBT Trade 140% Profit in 17 Calendar Days

Tweet TBT Trade 140% Profit in 17 Calendar Days

From: phoenixalerts@hamzeianalytics.com [mailto:phoenixalerts@hamzeianalytics.com] On Behalf Of Phoenix Equity & Index Options Trading Service
Sent: Monday, January 26, 2009 9:45 AM
To: PHOENIX Equity & Index OptionsSubject: EXIT NOW: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our Ninety Fourth Trade is TBT Feb Calls
Exit this trade at the MARKET now
bid / ask is 5.90 to 6.10

F

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From: phoenixalerts@hamzeianalytics.com [mailto:phoenixalerts@hamzeianalytics.com] On Behalf Of Phoenix Equity & Index Options Trading Service
Sent: Friday, January 09, 2009 12:47 PM
To: PHOENIX Equity & Index OptionsSubject: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our Ninety Fourth Trade is TBT Feb Calls

94th Trade: BUY to OPEN Five (5) UltraShort Lehman 20Yr+ T-Bonds (TBT) Feb 40 Calls (TBT BN) when TBT trades at 40.20 or lower (its Monthly Pivot Price)

Current Price of ETF is 41.10
Current Bid/Ask on the option is 3.00 to 3.20 -- with a 60 delta, your entry price should be around $2.45
-- so be patient.

Trade Type: This is a Sigma Scanner Trade
Rationale: Today, TBT is trading just below +1 sigma on 20 day MA.

Its Dollar-weighted Put/Call is 0.33 (Bullish)
Its UniVol is 51 (this is a volatile ETF)

Godspeed Phoenix.....
Fari Hamzei
FounderHamzei Analytics, LLC
Tel: (310) 306-1200
Fax: (806) 398-1200
Cell: (310) 995-8386
Email: Fari@HamzeiAnalytics.com
GMail: HamzeiAnalytics@GMail.com
YAHOO IM: Hamzei_Analytics

CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: This email message is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and may contain confidential and/or privileged information. Any unauthorized review, use, disclosure or distribution is prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender by reply email and destroy all copies of the original message.

QCOM Trade 60% Profit in 7 Calendar Days

Tweet QCOM Trade 60% Profit in 7 Calendar Days

From: m_s_a@hamzeianalytics.com [mailto:m_s_a@hamzeianalytics.com] On Behalf Of Hamzei Analytics LLC Admin
Sent: Tuesday, March 31, 2009 10:24 AM
To: Matt
Subject: Update 2: EXIT Order: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our One Hundredth & First Trade is QCOM May Calls

we were not filled on Thursday with our 2.60 exit day order (see below) -- trying again on a GTC order

looks to me that in a day or two, QCOM will test its +2 sigma on the daily chart -- which is about 40.53
that's $1.40 from here
our May 40 Call option currently has a 51 delta
therefore, a move up to +2 sigma should bring up the market price of option to about 2.99

so let's put a GTC order to Exit this trade at $2.95 or better
this is NOT a day order

current Bid / Ask is 2.26 - 2.30

F

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From: Hamzei Analytics LLC Admin [mailto:Admin@HamzeiAnalytics.com]
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 1:02 PM
To: MSA (M_S_A@HamzeiAnalytics.com)
Subject: EXIT Order: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our One Hundredth & First Trade is QCOM May Calls

Exit this trade at 2.60 or better -- this is a Day Order

current bid /ask is 2.43 -- 2.45

FH

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From: Hamzei Analytics LLC Admin [mailto:Admin@HamzeiAnalytics.com]
Sent: Tuesday, March 24, 2009 2:01 PM
To: MSA (M_S_A@HamzeiAnalytics.com)
Subject: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our One Hundredth & First Trade is QCOM May Calls

101st Trade: BUY to OPEN Five (5) Qualcomm (QCOM) May 40 Calls (AAOEH) @ 1.85 or better -- this is a DAY ORDER

Current Price of QCOM is 38.18
Current Bid/Ask on the option is 1.90 to 1.91
After your Entry, put your SELL STOP @ 0.90
Trade Type: This is a Sigma Scanner Trade
Rationale: Today, QCOM is trading just above +1 sigma.

Its Dollar-weighted Put/Call is 0.32 (BULLISH)
Its UniVol is 50 (this is a volatile stock)


Godspeed Phoenix.....
Fari Hamzei
FounderHamzei Analytics, LLC
Tel: (310) 306-1200
Fax: (806) 398-1200
Cell: (310) 995-8386
Email: Fari@HamzeiAnalytics.com
GMail: HamzeiAnalytics@GMail.com
YAHOO IM: Hamzei_Analytics

CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: This email message is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and may contain confidential and/or privileged information. Any unauthorized review, use, disclosure or distribution is prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender by reply email and destroy all copies of the original message.

High Probability Trades on Twitter Challenge

Tweet High Probability Trades on Twitter Challenge

What you see below, is 80% return in five calendar days (actually, 2 trading days). This SNDA trade was a high probability trade using a proprietary two-factor scan. As our equity markets revolve to become more "normal," we should see more of this type of occurrence. It won't be every day. But I am willing to dig for them.

Here is my challenge to you:

We now have 660 people on Twitter in just 2 days of operations. Help us get to 2,000 followers on Twitter by May 1st (two weeks from now) and I will put one or two trades a month, like the SNDA trade, on the Twitter (again, with entry, stop loss and exit). It won't be easy but I will try to find them for you.

So, start by contacting your trading buddies and invite them to join us on the Twitter. Here is our handle www.twitter.com/HamzeiAnalytics. Better yet, Tweet your followers on the Twitter to follow us. You can even re-Tweet some of my tweets to your trading buddies. In the last two days, if you login, you can see, each day, I have nailed the last hour.

Fari

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From: Hamzei Analytics LLC Admin [mailto:Admin@HamzeiAnalytics.com]
Sent: Monday, April 13, 2009 9:04 AM
To: MSA (M_S_A@HamzeiAnalytics.com)
Subject: EXIT NOW: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our One Hundred & Seventh Trade is SNDA May Calls


EXIT this trade at the Market....... NOW...NOW... NOW

Bid /Ask is 3.20 to 3.50
Last is 3.30

FH

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From: m_s_a@hamzeianalytics.com [mailto:m_s_a@hamzeianalytics.com] On Behalf Of Hamzei Analytics LLC Admin
Sent: Wednesday, April 08, 2009 12:53 PM
To: AdminSubject: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our One Hundred & Seventh Trade is SNDA May Calls


107th Trade: BUY to OPEN Five (5) Shanda Interactive Entertainment (SNDA) May 50 Calls (QKU EJ) @ 1.90 or better -- this is a DAY ORDER

Current Price of SNDA 45.15
Current Bid/Ask on the option is 1.90 to 2.05
After your Entry, put your SELL STOP @ 0.85

Trade Type: This is a Technical Analysis Trade -- a 3% breakout above its 52-week high !!!

Rationale: Today, SNDA is trading just above its +2 sigma.




Godspeed Phoenix.....
Fari Hamzei
Founder
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tel: (310) 306-1200
Fax: (806) 398-1200
Cell: (310) 995-8386
Email: Fari@HamzeiAnalytics.com
GMail: HamzeiAnalytics@GMail.com
YAHOO IM: Hamzei_Analytics

Follow us on Twitter: www.twitter.com/HamzeiAnalytics
MSA EMails: Unsubscribe Update

CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: This email message is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and may contain confidential and/or privileged information. Any unauthorized review, use, disclosure or distribution is prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender by reply email and destroy all copies of the original message.