Monday, September 14, 2015

#NQ_F Daily + Weekly SPR plus IB Levels Chart for Monday, September 14, 2015

#NQ_F Daily + Weekly SPR plus IB Levels Chart for Monday, September 14, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

#ES_F Daily + Weekly SPR plus IB Levels Chart for Monday, September 14, 2015

#ES_F Daily + Weekly SPR plus IB Levels Chart for Monday, September 14, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


Final #SPX #MOC #Imbalances for Monday, September 14, 2015

Final #SPX #MOC #Imbalances for Monday, September 14, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

#ES_F Confluence Table for Monday, September 14, 2015

#ES_F Confluence Table for Monday, September 14, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

#AMZN Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015

#AMZN Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


AMZN  is now at/near to where it was trading in a sideways pattern just before the most recent market sell off/pull-back; and seems to now be in definite wait mode for FOMC rate decision.

The key area/zone I have an eye on is 512s which is last week's value area low (VAL) and Daily center Sigma at 510s

If holding above the 512s-510s zone post FOMC rate decision there will be potential to head to the first upside target at 538s-542s zone before the +3Sigma target at 568s-570s zone.

If a breach below 510 the lower targets are at 490s, 476s/75s, then the -3Sigma target at 452s.




Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#FB Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015

#FB Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


For me FB is back to being dead/boring money and seems to always be while trading above 88. However regardless of being boring FB has definitely been one of the strongest &/or did not have much bearish follow through compared to most stocks during the most recent market sell off/pull-back.

Post FOMC rate decision I will have an eye on Daily center Sigma which is also last week's value area low (VAL) at 89.30 to help determine a bias and the potential for continuing higher to the +3Sigma target at 99s/100s once/if first getting above the 93.60 target and then also above 95.40.

If failing to hold above Daily center Sigma the next area which must hold is 85.50 otherwise -3Sigma becomes a potential target at 79s.



Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#NFLX Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015

#NFLX Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


NFLX is definitely looking like it is going to need some help from a favorable FOMC rate hike decision especially while trading below last week's value area/-97.45, otherwise the lower targets for NFLX are at 91s, 87s, then -3Sigma target at 78s/77s.

If getting back in value NFLX would then have to make it through and above the other side of value at 101.30 in order to have chance of breaching the current downtrend by getting back above Daily center Sigma at 105s/106s





Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#AAPL Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015

#AAPL Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


AAPL is getting a nice headline pop today but in order for AAPL to continue higher with ease post the FOMC rate hike decision APPL will need a Daily close above the key resistance at 122.40-122.80 zone which is the bottom of the previous balanced area before the most recent earnings (ERs) drop which is also Daily +3Sigma as well.

Post the FOMC rate hike decision later this week the first key area of support I will have an eye on is last week's value area high (VAH) at 113.30. As long as holding above 113.30 the odds will increase for higher in AAPL this week.

If below 113.30 the line in sand (LIS) is the other side of value at 110.65. If a Daily close below value this week the Daily Sigma is currently showing a -3Sigma target at 99s; however AAPL will also have to get through the low volume area (LVA) at 104s for chance and potential of achieving the -3Sigma target at 99s.      



Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Index #ES_F #SPY Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015

Index #ES_F #SPY Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend



Not expecting any major and/or meaningful moves in any index ahead of the FOMC rate hike decision this week. ESZ5 +30-50pts or -30-50pts from where ESZ5 is current trading should and will likely mean absolutely nothing ahead of this week’s FOMC due to the potential of a rate hike or not.

I still find it completely hilarious (as I have mentioned before in a previous blog post) at how the entire/overall US stock market remains 100% at the mercy to a +1/8th or +1/4th (.25) point interest rate hike. I cannot stress enough that a .25pt rate increase will have no dramatic negative impact to the US economy nor will it have any impact to the 82% of Americans who do not participate in the US stock market.

Not only will a +.25 rate hike have zero impart to the US economy a no .25pt rate hike this week (or in December) will not help any of the concerns and uncertainty in global economies especially China. All a .25pt rate hike is to US investors and trades is the likelihood and potential end to easy/free money and the beginning of the end to the “bad econ data is good for stocks” era.

My current thoughts are Shorts are going to cover no matter if the Fed does a rate hike or not due to no rate hike is good for stocks and if a rate hike CNBC will then be none stop that a +.25pt rate hike equals and suggest the US economy is now in the all clear.

Even if the initial reaction to rate hike is bearish I still think the market will find a reason to rally before a real and meaningful trend is determined. This means what will matter and be more important to me is the follow through in either direction and/or rejection reversal post the rate hike decision more so than the initial reaction.

For now the key ESZ5 areas I have an eye on pre-FOMC are 1970s-1975s zone and 1918s-1915s zone, and while in between these areas ESZ5 and the indexes will be in wait mode for FOMC rate decision.

Post FOMC the only chance of follow through to new ATHs is once/if a Daily close above 2032s/33s. A rejection of 2032s/33s or if macro lower highs begin to form below 2032s/33s my macro bias will favor a real correction of 10% or more which will occur in the coming weeks and will also occur during regular trading sessions rather than as a pre-market short-lived flash crash.

If no Daily close above 2032s/33s post the FOMC rate hike decision I will be looking for a Monday pre-market flash crash low test followed by an October low test as well once if below the 1860s-1850s support zone.




ES/S&P500 emini Futures still has a Daily -3Sigma target below -1800 but (and of course) there will definitely be potential for that to change if EZU5 turns to full bull mode post FOMC rate hike decision.

Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sunday, September 13, 2015

Is #SPX 2008 a good Analog for $SPX 2015?

Is #SPX 2008 a good Analog for $SPX 2015?SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
The correlation coefficient is too low, imho.

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