Not
sure what to think of the Sunday night overnight (O/N) gap down just yet; hard
to imagine there will be any meaningful follow through being FOMC/Yellen week
especially while ES holds above the initial gap down low made right at
the OVN open and/or if also continuing to grind above the uptrend line from
last week’s low as well.
Until/if
the current uptrend line from last week’s low is breached I will assume the
usual which means RTH focus will most likely only be on FOMC and whatever
spooked OVN futures last night will magically (and once again) be fixed by NY
lunch-time today.
After
the cash open I will first have an eye on 2082s/83s as first resistance
which is also value at 2083s. Once/if back in value the 80%
Rule will apply to the upside with potential to reach the 2nd
resistance target at 2086s before heading to the 80% target at 2089s-2091s
zone.
If
change is truly here (unlikely) ES would need to hold below value/-2083s
during RTH and then head to the first lower target for today at 2070s-2068s
zone then 2064s-2062s zone. Until a move/hold/close below 2062
there is no need to map out lower targets as odds favor BTD during a
FOMC/Yellen week.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC