For now I am still holding half of my Short swing bias against
the lower high formation I have been mentioning since last Thursday, especially after
seeing AAPL not participating in yesterday’s index rally along with a hand full of
other key stocks/leaders as well.
My thoughts now are the US stock market is definitely in some
sort of hope for very dovish remarks from the Fed today and likely so due to the
fact that earnings (ERs) so far have not been able to lead ESU5/SPY to new ATHs
even after great ERs from some of the big leaders GOOGL NFLX AMZN and APPL.
If ERs are failing to equal new ATHs
the only catalyst that is left to push the indexes to new ATHs on heavy volume is
the Fed.
I did try to hedge my remaining half SPY swing Short position via SPY Puts just before the close
on Tuesday due to FOMC this week but unfortunately my thoughts of a potential
stop run into close was negated by the double bottom so I missed the hedge
opportunity.
Regardless of FOMC I still have a close eye on AAPL to help give clues if I should remain
Short SPY via Puts (or not) which my eye is now on the daily center Sigma at 123.30-125.50
zone. Until above 125.50 AAPL will
have potential to head towards 121.80-121.50
zone then 117s.
For the indexes IWM
needs to hold below 122.45-122.95
zone for chance of continuing lower to 118s
with ease, ESU5 must hold below the
key weekly resistance at 2095s-2097s
zone, and NQU5 below 4585s.
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC