For a couple of days now I have been tweeting (@mocktrade) a
potential bearish bias for #AAPL while below the weekly resistance at 125.25 and especially while holding
below center on the 60min Sigma & CI
indicator.
Also over the past several months the #AAPL and ESU5/SPX/SPY charts
have remained very similar while holding within a range during the entire first
half of 2015, which I believe was due to the hope that #AAPL’s iWatch would be
the next catalyst to send #AAPL stock to its next leg higher. If so #AAPL would then help lead indexes to break out higher with volume after failing
to find new buyers post the Q1 earnings season along with post many failed
index breakout attempts after Janet Yellen’s well timed 360 back to “data
dependent” just before the 126k NFP report during the first week of April 2015.
With dovish Fed language and more importantly Q1 earnings
unable to attract new buyers to achieve more new market all-time highs (ATHs) #AAPL
(the biggest market leader) is now a must to have blowout iWatch sales for
there to be potential to lead US indexes back to making new highs and higher.
My concern: I love AAPL the company but I am not a fan of the
iwatch or at least not yet due to the fact that the iWatch needs to be linked
to a phone. When the iwatch can be a phone on its own and can one day unlock
and start your car and/or also fully control the functions of a house (lights,
alarm, etc) my bias will definitely change; until then and for now I am more in
the belief that #AAPL shareholders are the primary buyers of the iWatch and are trying
to promote it by tweeting about it on twitter in hope of helping their Long
position.
I got more concerned about the iWatch when seeing only one
person at the iWatch table while all other tables were surrounded by people.
There is chance #AAPL could grind higher as Q2 earnings approach but unless iwatch sales are blowout (or even a big disappointment) there will
be extremely high odds #AAPL could breach below 120s then breach below 118/117
which will increase the chances of #AAPL leading the overall market lower along
with all the uncertainty in Greece and the uncertainty in the China stock
market.
I will have a close eye on #AAPL over the next several weeks to
help confirm and/or give clues for a macro bias for the overall market during the next quarter and
maybe for the entire 2nd half of the year.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC