On Friday I mentioned that I was thinking a zig zag corrective
pattern would be achieved to 1958s for
ESU5 sometime this week. I definitely
did not think ESU5 would be trading well
below 1958 or anywhere at/near the 1900 handle before the cash open Monday
morning. However over the past several weeks if I did not say it once I said it
100 times that the day is nearing for the “reality”
that US stocks cannot go up forever on the heels of a dovish Fed and the “bad
economic data is good for stocks” era.
I now expect all the investors and traders who ignored the fundamentals
of both US and Global economic data while the US stock market went straight up since
the hope of QE3 back in mid-2012 will now be the ones who tweet or post on
blogs the future fundamentals of companies like AAPL, FB, AMZN, TSLA, GPRO, and
many others in hope that their stock positions will at least return back to their entry
price to get out.
I also expect all the CNBC guest over the past few years who
have been piggy backing off a dovish Fed will now be the same who go on TV and
say “all signs where there for a crash due to the artificial environment the
Fed and central banks created”.
Unfortunately for those who became investors or traders post
2011 where brain washed and trained US stocks will never correct again and
investing/trading is like taking candy from a baby; these will be the first to
go and out of the bizz followed by at least 50% of the “BTD” chat rooms as well.
Below is an ES chart
I posted on twitter during the last week of 2014 in which I mentioned (and have
done so many times since then) the profile since the announcement of QE3 is a very
thin profile above a macro balanced area compared to the rallies just before
the dot.com and housing/financial crisis bubble bursts. This means that when
the time comes (which could be now) the drop from the QE3 and/or central bank
bubble burst is likely to be much deeper than the previous two bubbles.
During both the dot.com
and housing/financial crisis bubbles
each formed a macro lower high (red arrows) before their big macro drop/flush. This
central back bubble burst is likely to be no different and if so the scenario I
am will be looking for is if ESU5
does not have a daily or weekly close above 1958s this week with 2020s as final or line in the sand for
the bears I will expect the October low to get breached. If so ES will likely head to the low volume
area at mid-1700s where it will
bounce and should retest the October low as resistance. If the October low
holds as resistance ES will form a
macro lower high before heading to the macro balanced area at 1600s/1500s.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC