Showing posts with label #PreMarket. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #PreMarket. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 6, 2016

Wednesday, July 6, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe

Wednesday, July 6, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael BlytheSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend



Good morning. Interesting price action overnight and and a busy calendar today should give the ESU6 ample trading opportunit. On a larger frame, I am becoming less inclined to be in dip buying mode as a bias, and just trade as an opportunist this week.

Prices to the downside start with 2069.00 (*) which is an important early risk marker, followed by the 2067.00 (*)  Globex low area. I want to be short beneath the 2067.00 level and look for 2063 (**) as a minimum target and then 2057 (***) as a last line of defense for bulls before price action could turn ugly.

To the upside, 2075 (*) should offer some fair initial resistance followed by 2080 (***) which will be vital for bears to defend or bulls to break. Next is 2084 (**) and if bears lose this then I expect for 2100 to trade again.


All the best;

Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist 
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Friday, July 1, 2016

Friday, July 1, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe

Friday, July 1, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael BlytheSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend



Good morning. First day of a new month/quarter tends to lean toward buying, but after a 5% S&P 500 rally from the Monday lows, it’s difficult to balance between what *may* amount to profit taking to close the week and the strong trend which shows no weakness at the moment. So at this point the bias is neutral.

My intentions for the day are simple. The 8:30 CST cash open, above that price I intend to be a buyer only, below the open I could do anything, however since Monday the ESU6 has not seen much action below the RTH opening print.

Downside prices are 2088 (**) which I see as a very good early indicator, followed by 2085 (**) and then 2081 (*). Below 2080 the path to 2075 appears to be very clear of technical debris. To the upside, 2092 (*), 2100 (**) and 2120 (***) are all that has my attention.

Worth noting that It is the Friday before a three day holiday, can’t close the door on it being a quiet day, even though it’s first of the month. After all, a considerable amount of buy power has been used this week.

 All the best;

Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist 
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thursday, June 30, 2016

Thursday, June 30, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe

Thursday, June 30, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael BlytheSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend



Good morning. Impressive resilience by global equities with a continued (but weaker) bid overnight. At this point convictions are likely useless. I bought some lotto puts into the close yesterday (mentioned in the room) from a pure risk/reward viewpoint as a 85 handle rally *seemed* excessive without any pullback.

For bears, they need for the ESU6 lower high in the European session to help push back through the 2056 Globex low and maybe with the quarter end trade, there could be some push back to 2050 (at least)

Bulls, just need a higher low, which gives them a lot of room at this point, price could retrace back to 2040 and bulls be theoretically OK.

Today I’ll be simple. If price is above the cash open then I will only be long, if below the open then I will lean short but be open to buying because for the moment, it is a buyers market.

Levels to the downside are 2062 (**) and 2056 (*). Below 2056 I don’t have anything until 2045 (*). Upside interest is 2067 (*) which I will use as an early risk marker then 2075 (*) followed by 2080 (***) area which I would expect to see considerable resistance.


All the best;

Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist 
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Wednesday, June 29, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe

Wednesday, June 29, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael BlytheSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


Good morning. Another run higher for global equities last night that helped the ESU6 push up to 2043.50. The mini is now over 60 handles from Monday’s low and 2050 roughly marks the halfway point from last weeks’s high to Monday’s low. I have a difficult time assuming that equities will make a V-shape recovery and expect at least somewhat of a retest of this weeks lows (at some point) while forcing bulls to make a lower high on the daily chart. Having said this, I am still in a macro sell the rallies mode until 2050-2060 proves support. To me, the risk/reward looks favorable for some lotto type puts and I am starting to price week 1 and week 2 options.

Price levels to the downside are: 2032 (**) 2028 (**) 2023 (*) 2019(*) 2014 (***)

Upside prices: 2050 (**) 2054 (**) 2060 (**) and 2064 (***)

For me, 2041 is the pivotal price heading into the cash open and I lean to trading with whomever controls that area.

All the best;

Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist 
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Tuesday, June 28, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe

Tuesday, June 28, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael BlytheSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


Good morning. Lighter Globex volume on the way back up overnight, 300K at 7:30 am CST as “Turn around Tuesday” features the S&P Case-Shiller and Consumer Confidence later this morning. Yesterday affirmed the sell the rallies prospective and until bulls can push and hold above 2050 I believe this market will find the path of less resistance to the sell side. In this type of environment the Globex trade often become less of conviction and the cash open/close give the most relevant clues, as yesterday both were lower. Having said that, I have to keep an open mind intraday because even if this rally is sold, it may be difficult to find the top to sell.

Levels to the downside are 20003 (*) then 2000 (*) followed by 1994 (**), 1990 (**) and yesterdays 1981 (**) low. Upside prices are 2010 (**) followed by 2020 (**) and then the 2035 (***) area I expect to see as best place for a lower high on a larger time frame.

 All the best;

Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist 
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Thursday, June, 23, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe

Thursday, June, 23, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael BlytheSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


Good Morning. Further polls have suggesting more breathing room for the Bremain camp and European equities responded with a solid rally. The FTSE now has its best five day return since the February lows and the S&P Sep futures travelled back up to 2100. I learned on September 29, 2008 to never assume an outcome of a political event and with all the risk on flavor, my concern is after the buy the rumor becomes fact, there will be a sell the news response.

I am still trading small this week without much of a market feel, and the next two days are not generous to conviction minded traders. The results of the Brexit vote will not be known until after hours, any info beyond that fact is unknown to me.

Levels I am watching to the downside are the 2093 (**) low from late this morning, below that I believe the door is open to trade back to the 2089 (**) area which offers next support followed by 2085 (**) then 2078 (***). Upside, is 2098 (**) then the 2102 globex high (*) and I don’t have anything of substance until 2120 (**).

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Wednesday, June 22, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTrader

Wednesday, June 22, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTraderSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


Good morning. All is quiet, and by equity behaviour this week one wouldn’t have an indication of the possible volatility ahead tomorrow. Globex volume on the September mini is a whopping (sarcasm) 135K at 7:23 CST; and given yesterday’s eleven handle cash range and now globex range trading inside of that, I would expect a very quiet day.

Last I saw, there were four Brexit polls expected to be released today, and to the best of my knowledge, none of them have hit the wires as of yet.

Bias…what bias? Looking for a tight range and to hopefully fade the edges. My concern? Well…quiet day until polls are released, then a whipsaw. Will it happen….I don’t know; the markets seems to have lost interest now as sentiment has turned strongly to the Bremain camp since Sunday. The polls indicate that the British population has swung from a heavy lean to EXIT to now a heavy REMAIN stance. The polls are untrustworthy, and if the EXIT vote passes or polls start suggesting such, it will seem to catch this risk-on market off guard.

Levels to the downside are 2078 (**) I expect to hold on first touch, and then 2074 (*) followed by 2071 (**) and 2059 (***). Upside levels of interest are 2086 (**) then 2092 (**) and 2099 (**).

 All the best;

Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist 
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Tuesday, June 21, 2016 Morning Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTrader

Tuesday, June 21, 2016 Morning Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTraderSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


Good morning. Global markets still appear to be somewhat resilient as the risk off trade somehow still finds momentum. Yesterday after the close, a couple of Brexit polls were released showing mixed results. With still a large number of voters still undecided, this vote will come down to the wire and uncertainty will persist this week as the markets are held captive by each poll.

In my prospective, it’s hard to imagine the ESU6 making a higher high today and instead I  am looking for a lower high and possibly a lower low. At some point,  risk concern ought to come back into equities IMHO. There is a Brexit poll to be released at 7:30 am CST (in just a few minutes from what I am hearing) and this of course could shift the balance of equities going into the cash open.

Levels to the downside 2078 (**), 2074 (*) and 2071 (**). Below there the market will aim for a gap fill to 2059 (***). To the upside, 2088 (**) should offer good initial resistance, followed by yesterdays 2092 (**) area high.

My bias is to sell this rally but I will attempt to continue to be as pragmatic as possible and remain on the side of the intraday trend.

All the best;

Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist 
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Monday, June 20, 2016

Monday, June 20, 2016 Morning Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTrader

Monday, June 20, 2016 Morning Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTraderSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend




Good morning. Equity futures gapped higher to open last night as Brexit polls showed what seems to be a momentum shift and possibly now a majority of voters favoring to remain in the EU. I suspect from experience that index futures are going to be vulnerable to whatever headline, poll or statement that hits the wires this week, potentially leading to volatile price action. The economic calendar in the U.S. is fairly quiet this week, so the attention is on all Brexit-related matters.

This price action today will likely favor scalpers, but will present to difficulty for intraday position traders such as myself. In my morning plan, what I can rule out is attempting to sell perceived tops or buying perceived bottoms as a matter of conviction. Unless something significant comes to my attention intraday, I will only attempt to buy pullbacks within uptrends, and sell rallies within downtrends. I will use the cash session opening print, as well as the 0 sigma marker and simple higher highs/higher lows and lower highs/lower lows to define the trend.

Levels I am currently paying attention to on the downside are 2084 (**) as an early pivot marker, follwed by 2082 (*) then 2075 (*) followed by last nights 2072 (*) open, and Friday’s 2060 (*) close. These levels are wide, but after last night’s price action, I believe the more macro intraday levels are most reliable.

To the upside, last week’s 2089 (*) high, followed by 2097 (**). Again, micro support/resistance levels are not suitable today IMHO, and these may be considered levels of interest to watch or targets, more than outright support/resistance projections.

All the best;

Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist 
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Friday, June 17, 2016

Friday, June 17, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by

Friday, June 17, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend



Good morning. After the reversal in U.S. equities yesterday, global markets saw moderate follow through overnight. However, the ESU6 traded up to 2075 area and was once again resisted there, leading to a retracement of the sessions gains and trade below 2070.

Today is June expiration, which has very good stats; but this week has not been kind to bullish stats. With the lack of buy momentum overnight, I expect for some two-sided tape today as the expiration as well as continued Brexit balancing will create a mixed environment. Bears controlled last week’s close and this week’s open, it will be interesting to see who may control this week’s close.

Friday is the most difficult day of the week to counter-trend trade the intraday momentum (based on my studies). Therefore, I will keep an eye on the 8:30 CST opening print and look for buys above and sells below, with the exception of possibly looking for a first hour low to buy.

Prices to watch lower will be 2064 (*) followed by 2061 (**); below there, I believe the door opens for a revisit of yesterday’s low, and wouldn’t consider a buy until the 2050 (**) area. To the upside, the 2071-2072 (*) area could offer initial resistance followed by the pivotal 2075 (***) price. The line in the sand to sell rallies or buy a breakout seems to be that 2075, a break above; and I would expect for some buy stops leading up to 2080 (**) and possibly 2089 (***).


All the best;

Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist 
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Thursday, June 16, 2016 Morning #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTrader

Thursday, June 16, 2016 Morning #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTraderSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend



Good morning. The equity indexes have confirmed the “sell the rallies” personality this week and buyers failed again yesterday to gain traction leading the ESU6 into a very weak close. Meanwhile, that weakness saw follow through overnight as the major global indices maintained a risk off trade.

For me, it’s unproductive to preplan to buy any dip (not ruling out circumstances intraday) and lower price levels could be considered more as points of interest or targets rather than outright support projections.

Downside prices are 2052 (*) globex low, 2048 (*), 2043 (**) Weekly S3, and 2039 (**) area. To the upside 2057 (*),  2063(**), 2069 (*) and 2072 (***)

While I am not predetermined to buy a pullback, after five lower sessions, two remaining days this week, and nearly 70 handles from this contracts high last week, my experience tells me to keep an open mind with this price action. IF this selling is due to event risks (Brexit) THEN at some point it will be priced in, and once everyone has flattened or shorted, it’s possible to see upside price action, especially as the week closes tomorrow.



All the best;


Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist 
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Wednesday, June 15, 2016 S&P 500 Futures Closing Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTrader

Wednesday, June 15, 2016 S&P 500 Futures Closing Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTraderSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Tuesday, June 14, 2016 S&P 500 Futures #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTrader

Tuesday, June 14, 2016 S&P 500 Futures #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTraderSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend



Good morning. Brexit concerns seem to be finally entering the market with less than ten days until the vote and polls seeming to indicate the British population favoring a withdraw. Yesterday, the ESU6 broke and closed below the 2074 level which now has me leaning toward selling rallies.

Overnight, the ESU did hold the VWAP for this year at 2060 but continued to make its lower highs. Positive stats for June expiration week as well the historic June calendar showing a tendency to find a low into the midmonth rebalance will keep me cautious as the two day Fed Meeting begins today. I will again be trading with smaller size and hopefully an open mind.

At this point, the move to risk off ahead of the vote has been very orderly, nothing that suggests panic.

Levels to watch on the downside are the globex low at 2060 (*) followed by 2057 (**) then 2049 (***). To the upside, first resistance is 2067 (*) then 2072 (*) and 2079 (**) near yesterday’s VPOC.

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