Showing posts with label Sentiment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sentiment. Show all posts
Thursday, July 24, 2014
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Monday, October 1, 2012
Monday, April 9, 2007
Bond Market
Sally Limantour
Friday’s non farm payrolls number was a bit of a shock and has dashed any hopes of a rate cut in the near future. Revisions of the past two months were strong and the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% matching a low back in May 2001. Interesting too was the strong leap in construction employment in an industry that has negative headlines on a daily basis. Remember that February’s number was quite negative and the 56,000 new jobs created in March construction is most likely an adjustment. The important thing is the trend and the direction for the past three months in construction employment is still down.
As of April 3rd the COT report showed the spec and fund combined net short position of
126,351 bond contracts. We have to assume this position is larger as the market is a full point lower now and it will be important to see the COT report this Tuesday. The 109 level I have been looking for in the Treasury bond futures (USM7) is close at hand and although the COT reflects a large short position amongst the spec community, bond prices can still go lower before a good bounce. In fact, many times I have seen bond prices move an additional 3-4 points even with an extreme COT position.
Friday’s non farm payrolls number was a bit of a shock and has dashed any hopes of a rate cut in the near future. Revisions of the past two months were strong and the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% matching a low back in May 2001. Interesting too was the strong leap in construction employment in an industry that has negative headlines on a daily basis. Remember that February’s number was quite negative and the 56,000 new jobs created in March construction is most likely an adjustment. The important thing is the trend and the direction for the past three months in construction employment is still down.
As of April 3rd the COT report showed the spec and fund combined net short position of
126,351 bond contracts. We have to assume this position is larger as the market is a full point lower now and it will be important to see the COT report this Tuesday. The 109 level I have been looking for in the Treasury bond futures (USM7) is close at hand and although the COT reflects a large short position amongst the spec community, bond prices can still go lower before a good bounce. In fact, many times I have seen bond prices move an additional 3-4 points even with an extreme COT position.
Talk of interest rate cuts will now be on the back burner as the Fed will remain on hold. Inflation is ticking up and having just returned from the Bahamas where I attended the Natural Resource Summit of the Americas, I am still convinced we are in a major bull market in commodities and this sector will outperform. It is both a supply and demand issue in many of the raw materials and we should see opportunities ahead in the base metals, precious metals, molybdenum (try saying that word three times fast) uranium, energy, alternative energy, water supplies and food. This is a theme I will continue to cover and focus on both in futures and the natural resource stocks.Looking ahead in bond land this is a slow data driven week with the biggest news coming on Wednesday as the FOMC releases the minutes from March 21. Following this we have Chicago Fed Moskow speak about the US economy, then Thursday’s chain store sales and Friday’s report of the PPI, the Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and the international trade numbers for February. It is not inconceivable for the 30 year Treasury bonds to trade back to long term support at 108.00.
Thursday, March 8, 2007
The Mysteries of Up & Down Volume
Jason Goepfert
Over the past week, we’ve seen a laundry list of extremes across a variety of shorter-term sentiment- and breadth-related indicators.
One of the more remarkable is that of the relationship between “up” volume and “down” volume on the NYSE. Up volume is simply the number of shares traded in stocks that closed higher than the previous close, and vice-versa for down volume.
Last Tuesday, that ratio was skewed 100-to-1 in favor of the downside, the worst since the crash of 1987. A week later, however, buyers returned in force and the skew was 15-to-1 in favor of upside volume. Historically, it’s rare to see two such opposite extremes within a week of each other, and it might be instructive to take a look at them.
Each of the four instances in the past 50 years was consistent in their pattern:
1. At least a 15-to-1 skew of down volume to up volume.
2. At least a 15-to-1 skew of up volume to down volume less than one week later.
3. A retest of the recent low within 30 days.
4. A rally off a successful test of that low.
The four charts below highlight each of the occurrences, and it provides a general outline of what we may see this time around if the pattern holds somewhat true. This time we’re seeing the volume reversal soon after a market high, whereas the others occurred after a major downtrend, so that’s one caveat here. And if the recent low breaks, it will invalidate this pattern and I would not be looking for higher prices based on this extreme volume reversal any longer.
October 23, 1957:
June 30, 1965:
May 27, 1970:
October 21, 1987:
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Disclaimer and Terms of Service
© Copyright 1998-2023, Hamzei Analytics, LLC. Hamzei Financial Network is published by Hamzei Analytics, LLC, Naples, FL 34112, Admin@HamzeiAnalytics.com (310) 306-1200. The information herein was obtained from sources which Hamzei Analytics, LLC believes are reliable, but we can not and do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Hamzei Analytics, LLC or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities or commodities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Neither Hamzei Analytics, LLC nor its principals intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security or commodity. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security or commodity based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment or trading advice. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or conclusion on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Always consult your financial adviser(s) before making any investment or trading decisions.
