Timer Digest Commentary

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Fari Hamzei

Yesterday we saw U.S. stocks close sharply higher as a drop in oil prices calmed worries about inflation and news of an unexpected rise in home sales raised hopes that the housing market is stabilizing. Unquestionably, the rumors of the impending freedom for British Royal Marines held captive in Iran since March 23rd, fueled the strong bid across BigCaps, TechLand and Small Caps. And as George W spoke in the Rose Garden, bashing the Dems, our favorite Defense stocks BA, NOC and RTN, provided us an early warning of the explosive move.

Good Friday has historically provided an up bias for the market; however next week, we expect some selling as we all need to meet our obligations to Uncle Sam by April 15th.

Interesting Trades on Globex Last Night

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From our Virtual Trading Room Transcript
April 4, 2007
about 0717 PDT

Brad_Sullivan> one thing worth noting
Brad_Sullivan> that happened in the SPminis last NIGHT
Brad_Sullivan> nearly 28,000 contracts traded at 1447.50
Brad_Sullivan> and it was all in a short time period
Brad_Sullivan> with buyers coming in at 1,500 contracts a clip
Brad_Sullivan> and they were immediately pared off
Brad_Sullivan> by a seller
Brad_Sullivan> I have to say that I have never seen anything like that
Brad_Sullivan> it happened around 5:30 pm CDT
Brad_Sullivan> not sure what it means if anything
Brad_Sullivan> but it wreaks of something

Equity Index Update

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Brad Sullivan

Welcome to Q2…it seems like yesterday we were making our new year resolutions and now we are 25% through 2007. From a market perspective, we have witnessed a shift from the downward sloping volatility over the previous 8 months and now find the index markets in a rather interesting position. Clearly the global indices are a crossroads in terms of velocity and direction. Was the February 27th decline a warning shot of what may lie ahead? Is the U.S. economy slowing to the point of a needed rate cut? Is the Sub-Prime fiasco about to play a much larger role in the domestic consumer? Will the U.S. dollar continue to drop against the rest of the world? If the FED is worried about inflation…when will it show up in our readings?

As you can deduce from my thinking…there are many scenarios facing the index market over the ensuing months. One aspect of the trade that appears to be a pretty good bet from where I sit is that volatility has put in a floor and will remain elevated (relative of course) to those lows seen earlier this year. Listed below are the global performances for the indices. Once again…the U.S. is a laggard.

Global Stock Market Recap