Showing posts with label #ZB_F. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #ZB_F. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Tuesday, January 3, 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MB

Tuesday, January 3, 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MBSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend




No surprise that the Treasury market resumes it’s down course as the dollar and equities rally, and gold trades in the red. The week offers a decent calendar, and the modest rally in bonds over the last few sessions maybe enough to give it fuel to new lows.
 
My bias is clear to sell rallies at this point. I like selling 149’24, risking 8 ticks to make 32 ticks, or selling 150’10 risking 8 ticks to make 32. If I cannot grab a rally to sell, I will attempt to sell through the 149’02 level, depending on how the chart sets up. I think its reasonable to target a full handle on any short at this point. Bears should have enough for that, and if not, my bias maybe wrong.
 
151’14 (***)
 
150’24 (**) Resistance + Third Higher Target
 
150’10 (**) Resistance + Second Higher Target
 
149’24 (*) Resistance + First Higher Target
 
149’10 (*) Last Print
 
149’02 (**) Overnight Low, the 149’00 level was pivotal for bulls to hold. I don’t think they      can/will on the retest + First Lower Target + Some Support
 
148’16 (**) Second Lower Target + Some Support
 
148’02 (***) Third Lower Target + Support
 
All the best;

Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Friday, December 30, 2016

Friday, December 30, 2016 Bond Comments from MB

Friday, December 30, 2016 Bond Comments from MBSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend




Good morning. I like selling 150’11, small risking 6 ticks to make 12, and/or buying 149’22 small risking 8 ticks to make 16.


151’14 (***) Third Higher Target + Resistance

150’28 (*) Second Higher Target

150’11 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist

150’02 (*) Early Pivot

149’22 (*) First Lower Target + Support

149’16 (*) Second Lower Target + Small Support

149’04 (*) Third Lower Target + Some Support



All the best;


Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Friday, December 23, 2016

Friday, December 23, 2016 Morning Bond Comments

Friday, December 23, 2016 Morning Bond CommentsSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend




Bond market still trying to lean higher with unimpressive volume during a disinterested pre holiday week. The cash bond market closes at 1:00 pm cst time today.



150’05 (***) Third Higher Target + Resistance

149’27 (*) Second Higher Target

149’18 (*) First Higher Target

149’09 (*) Early Pivot

148’26 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support

148’18 (**) Second Lower Target + More Support

148’10 (*) Third Lower Target + Support


All the best;

Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Monday, December 19, 2016

Monday, December 19, 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MB

Monday, December 19, 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MBSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend




Hello. Once again, bonds trying to hold up in a quiet overnight session. This week has a mixture of quiet but also some noticeable economic reports. Bonds have to rally back up to 150’00 at least some point.

I like selling the 148’15 price today, risking 8 ticks to make 16 minimum, if there is momentum lower then I’d attempt for 24 ticks. Or I can buy 147’18, risking 8 ticks to make 24.

149’09 (***) TGT 4 + Resist

`148’28 (*) TGT 3 + Some Resist

148’15 (**) TGT 2 + Fair Resist

148’06 (*) First Higher Target + Small Resist

147’28 (*) Early Pivot

147’21 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support

147’14 (**) Target Two + Better Support

147’04 (***) TGT 3 + Support


All the best;


Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Wednesday, December 14, 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MB

Wednesday, December 14, 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MBSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend




Hello and welcome to FOMC day. I expect a quiet morning trade before the volatile afternoon. It’s difficult (for me) to anticipate the market reaction to this Fed day. I have internal reasons to suspect either a quieter than usual reaction or stronger than usual reaction. My levels today are a little more macro, in the event of a more substantial reaction.

Before noon, I like buying 149’08 risking 8 ticks to make 16 or buying 148’18 risking 8 to make 24. Or selling 150’02 risking 8 to make 16.

*The above ideas are only good pre Fed and assume flat into the meeting *

I believe the stronger levels to be relevant today, but obviously cannot anticipate what I would do having yet to see the reaction to FOMC.

151’14 (***) TGT 4 + Resist

150’29 (***) TGT 3 + Resist

150’12 (**) TGT 2 + Resistance

150’02 (**) First Higher Target + Resistance

149’22 (**) Early Pivot

149’08 (*) First Lower Target + Fair Support

148’18 (**) Lower TGT 2 + Good Support

148’07 (*) Lower TGT 3 + Fair Support

147’10 (***) TGT 4 + Pivotal
                                                                                                                 

All the best;



Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Tuesday, December 13, 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MB

Tuesday, December 13, 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MBSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend




Hello. Light calendar today. Quiet, buy the dip action in the 30 year overnight. Looking at yesterday’s rally and some overnight follow through, I think bonds could continue to see higher into the FOMC decision.

I am willing to buy lower with smaller size. 148’23 and adding at 148’16. Risking 12 ticks on the ave to scale at 16 and 24 tick profits. I like selling the 149’22 price small, adding small at 149’28 and 150’02 (if necessary) risking 10 ticks on the ave to make 24 ticks.


150’02 (***) Target 3 + Good Resist

149’28 (*) Target 2 + Still in Resist Zone

149’22 (***) First Higher Target + Good Resist

149’09 Price as of this writing (just a reference)

148’23 (**) Early Pivot – Bias Long Above + Short Below

148’16 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support

148’08 (*) Lower TGT 2 + Some Support

147’26 (*) Target 3


All the best;

Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Friday, December 9, 2016

Friday, December 9. 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MB

Friday, December 9. 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MBSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend




Good morning. Bond weakness continues. Only place I would buy is 148’00 but I don’t expect that to print today. Instead I’ll look to sell back through 148’24. I also like selling 149’16 with smaller size adding at 149’22, using a 12 tick stop on the average while targeting 24-32 ticks.

149’22 (***) Third Higher Target + Resistance Band Begins

149’16 (**) Second Higher Target + Some Resist

149’04 (*) First Higher Target

148’24 (*)  Early Pivot

148’20 (*) First Lower Target

148’11 (**) Second Lower Target + Some Support

148’00 (***) Third Lower Target + Better Support


All the best;

Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thursday, December 8, 2016

Thursday, December 8 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MB

Thursday, December 8 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MBSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend




Bond market was trying to build a floor for much of this week but just broke key areas as ECB hitting the wires.

I would not consider buying today (as of 7:00 am). I like fading a rally at the (**) levels. However, given the sensitivity of this market to ECB reaction, I am hesitant to give exact trade ideas.


151’19 (***)

151’09 (**) TGT 3 + Bears Need to Hold

151’00 (*) TGT 2

150’18 (*) First Higher Target + Small Resist

150’06 (**) Pivotal for Control

149’17 (*) TGT 1

149’11 (*) TGT 2 + Small Support

148’30 (*) TGT 3 + Small Support

148’11 (***)


All the best;

Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Wednesday, December 7, 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MB

Wednesday, December 7, 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MBSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend




Small rally in bond market overnight, but a persistent market trying to lift a bid, another two handles higher and I think it will be a gift for shorts.

As for today, I like shorting the 151’20 price with smaller size and adding at 151’26, risking 16 ticks on the ave to make 32 ticks minimum. As an alternative, I could see having a smaller position buying 150’15 and adding small at 150’04, using a 12 tick stop on the ave to make 24-32 ticks. However, I like the sell much better.


151’26 (***) TGT 3 + Strong Resist Zone Begins

151’20 (**) Higher TGT 2 + Better Resist

151’08 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist

150’31 (*) Early Pivot

150’15 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support

150’04 (**) Lower TGT 2 + Some Support
 

All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Tuesday, December 6, 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MB

Tuesday, December 6, 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MBSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend




Good morning. Somewhat of a mixed bag since yesterday in the Treasury complex and so the bias has to remain to the trend which is lower. Yesterday, If you took both trade ideas then we did well on both sides, however the short idea from the 150’29 ave need a break of 150’10 to get the full handle, I am bidding 150’13 on half and moving stop to break even.

For today: I only want to be short below 150’10. Only new idea today is selling 151’04 with small size, risking 16 ticks to make 32 ticks.

151’20 (***) TGT 3 + Resist

151’08 (**) TGT 2 + Resist

150’30 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist

150’21 (*) Early Pivot

150’10 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support

149’26 (*) Second Target

149’10 (***) Third Target + Support


All the best;

Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Monday, December 5, 2016

Monday, December 5, 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MB

Monday, December 5, 2016 Morning Bond Comments from MBSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend


Weakness continuing in the fixed income futures markets overnight, hard to turn the bonds around ahead of the FOMC meeting. This week’s calendar is busy, but nothing that will be a big heavy hitter, as we start to anticipate next week’s meeting.

I like buying 149’14 with smaller size risking 8 ticks to make 16 (minimum) or shorting 150’24 with smaller size and adding at 151’02, risking 12 ticks on the average to make a full 32 tick handle.


151’20 (***)

151’02 (***) TGT 2 + Stronger Resist

150’24 (**)  Target above the pivot + Some Resist

150’11 (*) Early Pivot – sets bias

149’22 (*) First Target Below + Some Support

149’14 (**) TGT 2 + Stronger Support = worth a buy with smaller size

148’31 (***)


All the best;


Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist

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