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No surprise that the Treasury market resumes it’s down course as the dollar and equities rally, and gold trades in the red. The week offers a decent calendar, and the modest rally in bonds over the last few sessions maybe enough to give it fuel to new lows.
My bias is clear to sell rallies at this point. I like selling 149’24, risking 8 ticks to make 32 ticks, or selling 150’10 risking 8 ticks to make 32. If I cannot grab a rally to sell, I will attempt to sell through the 149’02 level, depending on how the chart sets up. I think its reasonable to target a full handle on any short at this point. Bears should have enough for that, and if not, my bias maybe wrong.
151’14 (***)
150’24 (**) Resistance + Third Higher Target
150’10 (**) Resistance + Second Higher Target
149’24 (*) Resistance + First Higher Target
149’10 (*) Last Print
149’02 (**) Overnight Low, the 149’00 level was pivotal for bulls to hold. I don’t think they can/will on the retest + First Lower Target + Some Support
148’16 (**) Second Lower Target + Some Support
148’02 (***) Third Lower Target + Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. I like selling 150’11, small risking 6 ticks to make 12, and/or buying 149’22 small risking 8 ticks to make 16.
151’14 (***) Third Higher Target + Resistance
150’28 (*) Second Higher Target
150’11 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist
150’02 (*) Early Pivot
149’22 (*) First Lower Target + Support
149’16 (*) Second Lower Target + Small Support
149’04 (*) Third Lower Target + Some Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Bond market still trying to lean higher with unimpressive volume during a disinterested pre holiday week. The cash bond market closes at 1:00 pm cst time today.
150’05 (***) Third Higher Target + Resistance
149’27 (*) Second Higher Target
149’18 (*) First Higher Target
149’09 (*) Early Pivot
148’26 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support
148’18 (**) Second Lower Target + More Support
148’10 (*) Third Lower Target + Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hello. Once again, bonds trying to hold up in a quiet overnight session. This week has a mixture of quiet but also some noticeable economic reports. Bonds have to rally back up to 150’00 at least some point.
I like selling the 148’15 price today, risking 8 ticks to make 16 minimum, if there is momentum lower then I’d attempt for 24 ticks. Or I can buy 147’18, risking 8 ticks to make 24.
149’09 (***) TGT 4 + Resist
`148’28 (*) TGT 3 + Some Resist
148’15 (**) TGT 2 + Fair Resist
148’06 (*) First Higher Target + Small Resist
147’28 (*) Early Pivot
147’21 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support
147’14 (**) Target Two + Better Support
147’04 (***) TGT 3 + Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hello and welcome to FOMC day. I expect a quiet morning trade before the volatile afternoon. It’s difficult (for me) to anticipate the market reaction to this Fed day. I have internal reasons to suspect either a quieter than usual reaction or stronger than usual reaction. My levels today are a little more macro, in the event of a more substantial reaction.
Before noon, I like buying 149’08 risking 8 ticks to make 16 or buying 148’18 risking 8 to make 24. Or selling 150’02 risking 8 to make 16.
*The above ideas are only good pre Fed and assume flat into the meeting *
I believe the stronger levels to be relevant today, but obviously cannot anticipate what I would do having yet to see the reaction to FOMC.
151’14 (***) TGT 4 + Resist
150’29 (***) TGT 3 + Resist
150’12 (**) TGT 2 + Resistance
150’02 (**) First Higher Target + Resistance
149’22 (**) Early Pivot
149’08 (*) First Lower Target + Fair Support
148’18 (**) Lower TGT 2 + Good Support
148’07 (*) Lower TGT 3 + Fair Support
147’10 (***) TGT 4 + Pivotal
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hello. Light calendar today. Quiet, buy the dip action in the 30 year overnight. Looking at yesterday’s rally and some overnight follow through, I think bonds could continue to see higher into the FOMC decision.
I am willing to buy lower with smaller size. 148’23 and adding at 148’16. Risking 12 ticks on the ave to scale at 16 and 24 tick profits. I like selling the 149’22 price small, adding small at 149’28 and 150’02 (if necessary) risking 10 ticks on the ave to make 24 ticks.
150’02 (***) Target 3 + Good Resist
149’28 (*) Target 2 + Still in Resist Zone
149’22 (***) First Higher Target + Good Resist
149’09 Price as of this writing (just a reference)
148’23 (**) Early Pivot – Bias Long Above + Short Below
148’16 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support
148’08 (*) Lower TGT 2 + Some Support
147’26 (*) Target 3
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. Bond weakness continues. Only place I would buy is 148’00 but I don’t expect that to print today. Instead I’ll look to sell back through 148’24. I also like selling 149’16 with smaller size adding at 149’22, using a 12 tick stop on the average while targeting 24-32 ticks.
149’22 (***) Third Higher Target + Resistance Band Begins
149’16 (**) Second Higher Target + Some Resist
149’04 (*) First Higher Target
148’24 (*) Early Pivot
148’20 (*) First Lower Target
148’11 (**) Second Lower Target + Some Support
148’00 (***) Third Lower Target + Better Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Bond market was trying to build a floor for much of this week but just broke key areas as ECB hitting the wires.
I would not consider buying today (as of 7:00 am). I like fading a rally at the (**) levels. However, given the sensitivity of this market to ECB reaction, I am hesitant to give exact trade ideas.
151’19 (***)
151’09 (**) TGT 3 + Bears Need to Hold
151’00 (*) TGT 2
150’18 (*) First Higher Target + Small Resist
150’06 (**) Pivotal for Control
149’17 (*) TGT 1
149’11 (*) TGT 2 + Small Support
148’30 (*) TGT 3 + Small Support
148’11 (***)
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Small rally in bond market overnight, but a persistent market trying to lift a bid, another two handles higher and I think it will be a gift for shorts.
As for today, I like shorting the 151’20 price with smaller size and adding at 151’26, risking 16 ticks on the ave to make 32 ticks minimum. As an alternative, I could see having a smaller position buying 150’15 and adding small at 150’04, using a 12 tick stop on the ave to make 24-32 ticks. However, I like the sell much better.
151’26 (***) TGT 3 + Strong Resist Zone Begins
151’20 (**) Higher TGT 2 + Better Resist
151’08 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist
150’31 (*) Early Pivot
150’15 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support
150’04 (**) Lower TGT 2 + Some Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. Somewhat of a mixed bag since yesterday in the Treasury complex and so the bias has to remain to the trend which is lower. Yesterday, If you took both trade ideas then we did well on both sides, however the short idea from the 150’29 ave need a break of 150’10 to get the full handle, I am bidding 150’13 on half and moving stop to break even.
For today: I only want to be short below 150’10. Only new idea today is selling 151’04 with small size, risking 16 ticks to make 32 ticks.
151’20 (***) TGT 3 + Resist
151’08 (**) TGT 2 + Resist
150’30 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist
150’21 (*) Early Pivot
150’10 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support
149’26 (*) Second Target
149’10 (***) Third Target + Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Weakness continuing in the fixed income futures markets overnight, hard to turn the bonds around ahead of the FOMC meeting. This week’s calendar is busy, but nothing that will be a big heavy hitter, as we start to anticipate next week’s meeting.
I like buying 149’14 with smaller size risking 8 ticks to make 16 (minimum) or shorting 150’24 with smaller size and adding at 151’02, risking 12 ticks on the average to make a full 32 tick handle.
151’20 (***)
151’02 (***) TGT 2 + Stronger Resist
150’24 (**) Target above the pivot + Some Resist
150’11 (*) Early Pivot – sets bias
149’22 (*) First Target Below + Some Support
149’14 (**) TGT 2 + Stronger Support = worth a buy with smaller size
148’31 (***)
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist