#NFLX Bias & Levels Update for Thursday June 30, 2016 by @mocktrade

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NFLX bias is now at neutral from bearish due to the breach back in the previous wedge which does give buyers an edge; however until/if first above 92.30 then above the 78.6% Fib at 93.50 NFLX could or may now remain in a sideways pattern until sometime after the July 4th holiday.

In order for NFLX to have a chance at pushing/holding above 93.50 the wedge must now contain otherwise if breaching back out of the wedge to the downside again and then also breaching below the line in sand (LIS) at 87.00 the 82s and 80s-78s zone targets will be back on the on the table.

Ethan Premock Futures & Options Strategist at Hamzei Analytics, LLC 

#PCLN Bias & Levels Update for Thursday June 30, 2016 by @mocktrade

Tweet #PCLN Bias & Levels Update for Thursday June 30, 2016 by @mocktrade

Originally and before both the June FOMC rate decision and Brexit I was holding a bullish bias for PLCN and I was in hope for a exit out of the Call side of a Strangle from/if a follow through move (with legs) above the 1385s resistance. PCLN did breach above 1385 on Thursday the day before Brexit but unfortunately the move occurred on very low volume and was also very short-lived, which then forced me to hold through the Brexit vote.

Then on Monday (June 27^th) PCLN had continual bearish follow through from Friday so I started to look at potential supports to exit out of the Put side for a profitable Strangle rather than the Call side. The first key support I saw was at the bottom of a low volume area (LVA) at 1161s/60s.

Thankfully the 1161s/60s target was reached which allowed me to exit the Strangle with a decent (not huge) profit after an almost full 250 point reversal.

Now I am taking note to the fact that although PCLN is currently trading a little more than 100 points above Monday’s low PCLN in not in the same type rally mode as the overall market, and is also losing energy at about the middle of a 100 point range between 1303 & 1203. This has me eyeing another (new) Strangle entry if PCLN now trades sideways for the rest of the week between 1285 & 1240. If so I plan to engage today/tomorrow with a September or October expiration.

Once/if engaged in the new Strangle I will then be looking for either a move above 1303s once/if first breaching above 1291 or a move below 1203s once/if first below 1228s.

Ethan Premock Futures & Options Strategist at Hamzei Analytics, LLC 

#NFLX Bias & Levels Update for Tuesday June 28, 2016 by @mocktrade

Tweet #NFLX Bias & Levels Update for Tuesday June 28, 2016 by @mocktrade

As today’s first hour of trading comes to an end NFLX is trying to get back in the wedge which was breached for the first time yesterday. Now if buyers fail to regain 88.95 today’s upside will likely just be a technical relief rally following Brexit.

Buyers will gain an edge if above 88.95 but even if so buyers will still have some work to do to avoid lower highs forming anywhere below last week’s weekly VAH at 91.70. If above 88.95 the possible areas sellers may try to defend and form a lower high are at 90.30-90.55 zone then 91.60-91.70 zone with 92.30 being the line sand (LIS) for sellers. If above 92.30 the 78.6% Fib at 93.50 will become the next upside target.

If the wedge does hold as resistance today/tomorrow and definitely if NFLX pushes back below 87.00 before higher I will then go back to a full bearish bias for a current pre-Brexit Strangle which will now have potential lower targets at 82s then 80s-78s zone.

Ethan Premock Futures & Options Strategist at Hamzei Analytics, LLC 

#NFLX Bias & Levels Update for Thursday June 23, 2016 by @mocktrade

Tweet #NFLX Bias & Levels Update for Thursday June 23, 2016 by @mocktrade

NFLX target at the 78.6% Fib (89.80) achieved yesterday along with also reaching the bottom of the wedge today at 88s, which is likely to now hold ahead of the Brexit vote. If the wedge does not hold or contain and if NFLX sees more selling today 87.95 will become a potential lower target before 86.50-86.15 zone which includes today’s daily support (DS3).

For me NFLX has a ways to go before I can become extremely bullish; the Brexit overall market reaction will definitely have to work in favor for NFLX buyers. If NFLX can at least first get back above the 92s/93s area then above last week’s value area/+95.05 following the Brexit vote I will expect NFLX to then reach the 97s/98s area, otherwise failing to get above 95.05 will equal odds more in favor for NFLX reaching the 80s/79s target in the coming weeks.

Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC 

#AMZN Bias & Levels Update for Thursday June 23, 2016 by @mocktrade

Tweet #AMZN Bias & Levels Update for Thursday June 23, 2016 by @mocktrade

I do not currently have a position nor a Strangle in AMZN ahead of the Brexit vote but I am seeing AMZN as a definite stock which should be hedged just in case the overall US stock market’s reaction is bearish for equities following the Brexit vote regardless of stay or not.

What I am taking note to is while AMZN has been the strongest of the FANG stocks (especially compared to NFLX & GOOGL) AMZN has now also failed to breakout to new highs for more than 6 straight weeks along with volume decreasing dramatically over the past 6 weeks as well except during the one day AMZN sold off a bit this past Friday.

Decreasing volume at/near ATHs is usually not a good sign for further upside with legs (or at least is a sign for limited upside) no matter how solid a stocks fundamentals are, which is also usually a sign odds are more in favor for a meaningful pull-back before resuming higher.

If not for the potential of a positive market outcome following the Brexit vote my mindset would definitely be thinking AMZN should be heading to 685s-682s zone before making another attempt at new ATHs; however if equities rally post the Brexit vote a AMZN bearish scenario will likely be negated and new ATHs will also be very likely, but with AMZN struggling to make new highs for so long (6+ weeks) on decreasing volume I would be hedging my AMZN exposure via short-term Puts if I was currently in a Long position.

If an AMZN bearish scenario does follow the Brexit vote and if also breaching below 682s the hedge via Puts would protect the potential for/if AMZN started to head to the next lower target at 665s-660s zone. If below 660s the line in sand (LIS) for buyers would be 649s-647s zone otherwise odds will favor a move to 630s/29s and possibly lower. 

Ethan Premock Futures & Options Strategist at Hamzei Analytics, LLC 

#NFLX Bias & Levels Update for Tuesday June 21, 2016 by @mocktrade

Tweet #NFLX Bias & Levels Update for Tuesday June 21, 2016 by @mocktrade

Over the past couple of weeks I mentioned that if not for the June rate decision being a possible game changer my bias for NFLX was more on the bearish side due to the auction chart favoring a move/breach below the key 92.00 support.

NFLX has now breached below the 92.00 support (and did so today) which I now expect NFLX to continue lower while/if holding below weekly value resistance for the remainder of the week just below 93.50 with 95.15-95.70 zone as the line in sand for sellers.

If above 95.70 either pre or post the Brexit vote I will then look at 98s as a potential upside and very important target for buyers to get through in order for me to fully change to a bullish bias; however for now or until if/then or until/if first above 95.70 my current bearish bias will remain with potential to reach the 78.6% Fib target at 89.80 before the bottom of the wedge at 88.45-87.95 zone, which will be a most hold to avoid a possible NFLX disaster with risk of a move below 80s/79s.

Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Anlytics, LLC 

#NFLX Bias & Levels Update for Thursday June 15, 2016 by @mocktrade

Tweet #NFLX Bias & Levels Update for Thursday June 15, 2016 by @mocktrade

Not much change in my NFLX thoughts and bias as the past week or so ahead of the FOMC rate decision; while/if holding above 92.00 buyers will have odds in their favor to head towards the top of the current wedge and if so 99.35 then 101s become potential targets.

However to me if it was not for the potential of a favorable FOMC rate decision reaction the NFLX auction is favoring a breach below 92.00 to at least the 89s area, and if this bearish scenario plays out I would then like to see NFLX breach out of the current wedge and then push well below 87s in the coming days for the Put side of a new Strangle which was engaged in on Thursday (June 8^th) to really benefit. If not I will expect there to be better odds for a move above 101s in the coming days or weeks.  

Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Anlytics, LLC 

#PCLN Bias & Levels Update for Wednsday June 15, 2016 by @mocktrade

Tweet #PCLN Bias & Levels Update for Wednsday June 15, 2016 by @mocktrade

For PCLN I was originally in hope for a follow through move above 1371 to occur before FOMC rate decision in order to start scaling out of the Call side of a current Strangle, which was engaged when PCLN was consolidating between 1302 and 1250.

Obviously my original plan was negated once PCLN breached below weekly value support at 1335s and especially once PCLN breached back below 1325. Now it’s back to waiting on the rate decision reaction before expecting any type of move with legs and energy.  

In the coming days or weeks I will be looking for a PCLN move either above 1385 or below 1228 otherwise I will have to scratch the current Strangle and exchange it for a longer expiration.

For a bullish bias I would like to see PCLN hold above 1275s-1270s zone after FOMC rate decision and then start making its way back above 1325, and then once/if above 1342s buyers should remain in control for a move to at/near and above 1385.

If PCLN fails to hold above 1270 odds will definitely be in favor for a move to 1253s-1250s zone before 1230s-1228s zone. Once/if below 1228s PCLN will then have potential for a breach below 1200.

Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Anlytics, LLC 

#AAPL Bias & Levels Update for Monday June 13, 2016 by @mocktrade

Tweet #AAPL Bias & Levels Update for Monday June 13, 2016 by @mocktrade

AAPL continues to have issues getting and holding above 100 following the Warren Buffett headline from almost a full month ago, which the chart is telling me AAPL is very likely now on its way to 95.50-95.30 zone while/if holding below 98.45 with 100 as the line in sand (LIS) for sellers. I am also thinking that if not for the FOMC rate decision this week the auction is definitely suggesting a 93s/92s retest (93.95 & 92.40) before making another attempt to get/hold back above the key 100 level.

While waiting on FOMC rate decision AAPL may also consolidate between 100s and 95s; if so the move to 93s/92s may not come until after rate decision, which I would prefer rather than occurring before rate decision in order to confirm a solid bullish bias in the weeks ahead. If 93s/92s area does not hold post FOMC rate decision I will expect odds to be more in favor for AAPL heading to 82s before the very important 76s/75s target area.

Currently I am holding a new AAPL Strangle with a Jan 2017 expiration which was engaged last week for the FOMC rate decision. If the bearish scenario just mentioned does play out to the 76s/75s area I will most likely be buying with both hands once/if reached, or if AAPL reacts positively to the FOMC rate decision I will ideally then like to see AAPL with a daily close above the first key low volume area (LVA) at 102s-104s zone to increase the potential for the Call side of the Strangle reaching its primary objective with AAPL getting/holding above 110 before yearend.  

Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Anlytics, LLC 

#NFLX Bias & Levels for a New Strangle on Thursday June 9, 2016 by @mocktrade

Tweet #NFLX Bias & Levels for a New Strangle on Thursday June 9, 2016 by @mocktrade

Current bias for NFLX is bearish and if not for the June rate hike decision next week I would be looking for a swing Short entry at/near 99.85-100.65 zone which includes weekly value resistance; until back in weekly value/+100.65 odds are in favor for NFLX heading to 94.25 and possibly 93.05-92.35 zone as well. 

Normally trading/holding below weekly value is a no brainier for me to look for Short trade entries but with the June rate decision next week (which will be an absolute game changer for both sides) I am forced to engage in a Strangle strategy rather than a naked Short trade. 

As long as NFLX holds within the 98.60-96.80 range today/tomorrow I will most likely engage in a new NFLX Strangle with a September expiration; very possible for me to do so by day’s end today (June 9^th). If so I will then be looking for a breach above 101s/102s or a breach below 90s/89s following the June FOMC rate decision.   

Ethan PremockFutures & Options Strategist Hamzei Anlytics, LLC 

#AAPL Bias & Levels Update for Thursday June 9, 2016 by @mocktrade

Tweet #AAPL Bias & Levels Update for Thursday June 9, 2016 by @mocktrade

AAPL is still/currently holding above the top of the previous consolidation range (+98.25) which was the range where I engaged in a new January 2017 Strangle ahead of the June FOMC rate decision; however AAPL is still trading within weekly value containment while below 100.50 and also holding within weekly value with very little energy. This tells me AAPL is likely either on hold until rate decision and/or needing a favorable FOMC rate decision as the catalyst for higher or to have better odds to finally get above and stay above 100s.

If staying above the current uptrend line with 97.70 as the line in sand (LIS) I do see potential for AAPL to get above weekly value/+100.50 and if so 101.80 becomes a potential upside target ahead of the June FOMC rate decision, but in order for AAPL to have more of a macro bullish bias AAPL will at least need a breach and daily close above the low volume area (LVA) at 102s-104s zone following the June FOMC rate decision.   

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Anlytics, LLC 

#PCLN Thoughts & Levels for June 8, 2016 by @MockTrade

Tweet #PCLN Thoughts & Levels for June 8, 2016 by @MockTrade

Currently I am holding a PCLN Strangle with an August expiration which was engaged when PCLN was balanced and consolidating between 1250 & 1302. Once PCLN breached above 1302 my bias turned from neutral to bullish; however in order for the Call side of the August expiration Strangle to push deep into profit PCLN now needs to breach and hold above 1374s/75s.

PCLN is now 20 points-ish below yesterday’s (Tuesday June 7^th) high of day (HOD) and is also currently trading below yesterday’s value area (VA) as well while below 1358s. Trading below value is not a good sign for a Long bias but until first below 1340 with 1325s-1320s zone as line in sand (LIS) I will assume the pull-back from yesterday’s HOD is just some profit taking following the +137 point upside move from the 1236s area back in mid/late May.

If PCLN was still holding within the previous balance area between 1250 & 1302 ahead of the June rate decision it would not matter to me which way PCLN traded post rate decision in regards to the current August Strangle, but now that PCLN is well above the previous balance area/+1302 it is definitely more ideal for PCLN to get above 1375s before FOMC rate decision next week. If so I will then have sights on 1393s-1402s zone then 1422s-1425s zone to consider scaling and/or exiting the entire August expiration PCLN Strangle.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Anlytics, LLC 

$AAPL Bias & Levels Update for Monday June 6, 2016

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On Friday I was taken note to AAPL consolidating between 97.10 and 98.25 which allowed me to engage in a new Strangle with a January 2017 expiration. I engaged in the Strangle strategy due to my belief AAPL will very likely either be well above 110.00 or well below 92.00 sometime between now and yearend.

There is no doubt Warren Buffett making a large purchase in AAPL stock provided absolute relief for buyers; the Buffett headline could not have come at a better time once AAPL breached the key 92.00 support. However a large purchase of AAPL stock by one person and/or by one investment holding company is not an overnight fix to whatever the concern was which had AAPL below the 92.00 support in the first place. This means there is still high potential for two way macro directional price action. 

The key now for buyers is to see if the Warren Buffett headline will just be a short-lived relief rally or if the Warren Buffett headline will actually provide the floor needed to keep sellers at bay.

For the Strangle strategy either scenario does not matter but another reason I engage in the Strangle strategy rather than a naked Long swing position is the concern for the overall market if the Federal Reserve does begin to gradually hike interest rates; if so there will be potential for an overall stock market topping process to begin before some sort of meaningful pull-back or correction which will definitely put pressure on a stock or company that needs a second billionaire bailout following Carl Icahn’s large purchase of AAPL stock back in 2013.

AAPL is now above the consolidation range (+98.25) but in order to get excited about the Call side of the new Strangle engaged in on Friday AAPL will first need to get/hold above 100.30 and if so 101.80-102.50 zone becomes a potential target. AAPL at 102s (if reached) will be good swing buyers but for odds to be more in favor of a macro bullish bias AAPL will need a daily close above the low volume area (LVA) at 103s/104s.

If buyers fail to hold above 98.25 with 97.10 as line in sand (LIS) this week or after the FOMC rate decision in June odds will begin to favor a move to 95.50-95.30 zone before the high volume area (HVA) at 94.25. Once/if below 94.25 AAPL will likely then be on its way back and below the key 92.00 support. If so the lower targets are at 82s then 76s/75s. 

Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Anlytics, LLC 

#GPRO Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Tweet #GPRO Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, September 16, 2015

For GPRO I cannot get bullish until a Daily close above Daily center Sigma +41s, and in order to reach 41s GPRO must first get through resistance at 38s and also get through the low volume area (LVA) just below 40.10.

Unless getting and holding above 41s post the FOMC rate decision GPRO is likely certain to test the IPO price at 28s and possibly lower to the -3Sigma target at 21s once/if breaching below 31.35.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#TSLA Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Tweet #TSLA Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Like NFLX TSLA is also on the move to the upside ahead of the FOMC rate decision and if holding above 255s/54s TSLA has potential to reach 265s/66s then 270s pre-FOMC. If so and if Long TSLA the 270s target is the spot (if reached) to consider scaling some profits &/or getting some protection on to protect profits via short-term Puts.

The TSLA Daily +3Sigma target is currently at 277s but unlikely to get achieved before FOMC tomorrow which is why the need for protection might be needed at or just below 270s if the rate decision does not favor more upside for the overall market.

If below 255s/54s either pre or post FOMC rate decision the line in sand  (LIS) for TSLA is at 248s-243s zone which includes Daily center Sigma and is a must hold in order to have chance of reaching the +3Sigma target at 277s post FOMC.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#NFLX Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Tweet #NFLX Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, September 16, 2015

On Monday I was thinking NFLX would remain in more of a sideways pattern between 97s and 93s ahead of the FOMC rate decision but instead NFLX is now on the move above 97s.

On Monday I also mentioned NFLX would have to get and hold above Daily center Sigma at 105s to breach the current downtrend post the FOMC rate decision, which is still case.

In order to now reach Daily center Sigma at 105s NFLX will need to either get above first resistance at 103.20 and/or hold above last week’s value area (VA) +101.30 with 97s as line in sand (LIS) post FOMC tomorrow. If not -3Sigma will become a target at 80s once/if first below the 84.30 support. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#AAPL Bias Update and Levels for Wednsday, September 16, 2015

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AAPL is still holding above last’s week’s value area high (VAH) +113.30 post Monday’s iphone sales headline and now seems to just be stalled while in wait mode for the FOMC rate decision.

If not for the potential of a rate decision game changer tomorrow my bias would be in definite favor to the Long side while holding above Daily center Sigma and last week’s value area low (VAL) at 111s/110s; with potential to reach the first resistance I mentioned on Monday at 122s, which is also a +3Sigma target.

However unless above 125s/126s (if a breach above 122s post rate decision) my bias will definitely flip to bearish with potential to reach the -3Sigma target at 101s/100s especially once/if below 109.50 then below the low volume area (LVA) at 104s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, September 15, 2015

CLV5 is also in a consolidation wait mode pattern like the overall stock market ahead of the FOMC rate hike decision. CLV5 is now in a perfect set up for a USO strangle while between 46s-43s and especially while trading at/near 44.  

The USO strangle is also being confirmed at the Daily center Sigma and a 50/50 scenario for either 17s or 11s. If CLV5 breaks above 46.05 then above 48s post the FOMC rate decision I will favor a bullish scenario, or if a breach first below 43.35 then below 40s I will favor a bearish scenario.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#ES_F #SPY Bias Update and Levels for Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Tweet #ES_F #SPY Bias Update and Levels for Tuesday, September 15, 2015

ESZ5 remains in a macro sideways, consolidation, and wait mode pattern ahead of the FOMC rate decision which unfortunately means a very long and boring week until Thursday. However while volatility is low this is a great week to get positioned before the overall market resolves itself post the FOMC rate decision, which I am doing so through several new strangle positions in SPY, USO, and several individual stocks as well.

I am personally not in the camp the Fed can or will hike rates in an environment post a pre-market flash crash which came on the heels of major global economic growth concerns especially out of China. I am more in the belief the Fed got greedy late 2014 and early 2015 when the US stock market was at/near ATHs and missed the boat/window for a first rate hike. Most likely the Fed did not want to cause any stock market concerns throughout the holidays and finish on a high note in 2014.

Although I expect a "no" rate hike it is only a personal bias and I have no idea how the market will react to a rate hike or not; this is why I am not positioning myself to one side. Even if there is a rate hike it is highly unlikely a +.25 rate hike will ignite the Fed & central bank bubble burst.That day is coming and likely in the very near future regardless of a rate hike this week or not or even in December.

If the market goes in full bull mode post the rate hike decision I will be looking to lock in most profits from the Call side of my strangles ahead of the key resistance for EZU5 at 2032s/33s.  

Once the Call side profits are achieved I will the be looking for macro lower highs to form below the 2032s/33s resistance as confirmation ATHs will most likely be negated and the upside post the rate decision will just be an initial reaction and what I hope will also be the beginning to the end of the artificial "bad econ data is good for stocks" era. It is going to take more than a "no" .25pt rate hike to justify new ATHs with all the global growth uncertainty. 

If the immediate reaction is bearish I will have an eye on the October 2014 low before ESZ5 heads to the Daily -3Sigma target and below 1800 to lock in profits from the Put side of all my strangle positions.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

      

#AMZN Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015

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AMZN  is now at/near to where it was trading in a sideways pattern just before the most recent market sell off/pull-back; and seems to now be in definite wait mode for FOMC rate decision.

The key area/zone I have an eye on is 512s which is last week's value area low (VAL) and Daily center Sigma at 510s. 

If holding above the 512s-510s zone post FOMC rate decision there will be potential to head to the first upside target at 538s-542s zone before the +3Sigma target at 568s-570s zone.

If a breach below 510 the lower targets are at 490s, 476s/75s, then the -3Sigma target at 452s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Analytics, LLC