Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Put/Call Ratio Workshop

Put/Call Ratio WorkshopSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Title: Put/Call Ratio Workshop with Fari Hamzei

Date:Sunday, December 6, 2009

Time:5:00 PM - 7:00 PM CST


After registering you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the Webinar.

System Requirements
PC-based attendees
Required: Windows® 2000, XP Home, XP Pro, 2003 Server, Vista

Macintosh®-based attendees
Required: Mac OS® X 10.4 (Tiger®) or newer

Space is limited.
Reserve your Webinar seat now at:
https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/869185760

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

US Equity Markets at Crossroads -- A Quick Review

US Equity Markets at Crossroads -- A Quick ReviewSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

My tonight's webinar is poted here:

https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/Educational_Webinars.asp

Sunday, November 8, 2009

@MissTrade Interviews Jon (DrJ) Najarian @optionMONSTER of #3Gurus Plus at @CBOE

@MissTrade Interviews Jon (DrJ) Najarian @optionMONSTER of #3Gurus Plus at @CBOESocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

http://vimeo.com/6870037 from miss trade on Vimeo.

@MissTrade Interviews Sir Lawrence McMillan of #3Gurus

@MissTrade Interviews Sir Lawrence McMillan of #3GurusSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Larry McMillan Option Strategist Interview with Matt Davio aka @MIssTrade from miss trade on Vimeo.



Larry McMillan Option Strategist Interview with Matt Davio aka @MIssTrade Part 2 from miss trade on Vimeo.

Exclusive Interview: Options Legend Larry McMillan @optstrategist #3gurus @CBOE

Exclusive Interview: Options Legend Larry McMillan @optstrategist #3gurus @CBOESocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
http://su.pr/2V7xZE

@MissTrade Interviews Brian Shannon @AlphaTrends of #3Gurus Plus at @CBOE

@MissTrade Interviews Brian Shannon @AlphaTrends of #3Gurus Plus at @CBOESocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

http://vimeo.com/6955144 from miss trade on Vimeo.

Friday, November 6, 2009

@WallStCS interviews Fari Hamzei

@WallStCS interviews Fari HamzeiSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Exclusive Interview: Quant Trader Fari Hamzei of #3Gurus Offers Advice for Investing

http://su.pr/2do46R

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

@MissTrade Interviews @HamzeiAnalytics of #3Gurus Part II

@MissTrade Interviews @HamzeiAnalytics of #3Gurus Part IISocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

http://vimeo.com/7414604 from miss trade on Vimeo.

@FuturesTrader71 on Overcoming the Obstacles to Consistency

@FuturesTrader71 on Overcoming the Obstacles to ConsistencySocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

Playback Link for the @FuturesTrader71 Webinar:

http://hamzeianalytics.com/Educational_Webinars.asp

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Market Timing Webinar

Market Timing WebinarSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

Our latest Market Timing webinar is posted here

http://www.hamzeianalytics.com/educational_webinars.asp

Thursday, October 29, 2009

How Precision Market Timing can help you to nail a High Gamma Trade

How Precision Market Timing can help you to nail a High Gamma TradeSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

If you saw my Twitter posts starting last Friday after the Close, then my Market Timing Commentary here on Monday Night and then culminating on Wednesday evening with more Twitter Updates, starting about 528 pm Central Time, you knew why I was HEAVY LONG SP-500 Futures (entry 1039) and small amount LONG Nasdaq-100 Futures (entry 1678), holding overnight and into Q3 GDP numbers this morning:

1) McCellan Osc readings for NYSE and NAZZ Markets
2) Down to Up Volume Ratio Spikes
3) Sigma Channels Reading for SPX, NDX, RUT and DJ Trans Indices
4) Put/Call Ratios (dollar weighted) for key High Beta Big Cap stocks
5) Vol of the Vols --- Sigma Channels readings for VXO and VXN
6) Intraday TICK Exhaustion Analysis -- on-the-run

This resulted in gain of 9.5 handles per ES contract on avg -- and max was 11 handles per contract. As you can tell from time & sales data, NQs were also very profitable.

Of course we traded post GDP release -- last long trade taken was exited at 2:57 pm CDT today at 1062 (per our HFT Tweeter Feed).

It was a glorious day and a great week so far. Hope you all enjoyed it. Here are our Timer and Vols Charts as of tonight's Close. Remember, tomorrow is another day and another battle. Go get some rest.

Go YANKEES Go !!
















Monday, October 26, 2009

Market Commentary as of Monday, October 26, 2009 Close

Market Commentary as of Monday, October 26, 2009 CloseSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei














Timer Chart shows us the McClellan Oscillators (MOs) have entered into short-term oversold condition. For NYSE the Advance/Decline Issues MO is at -212, and for for NASDAQ, it is at -161. Down Volume to Up Volume Ratio for today was at 7.1 to 1. While it was not outlandish, we are moving closer towards a short-term (dead-cat ??) bounce here. I wrote about this process on Twitter after the close last Friday.

A side note: While we came in long ES into the RTH today, we ended up shorting the SP500 Futures in rougly 1088 area towards the end of the first hour, which we rode down (with great pleasure) into lows of the day, within the next two hours.

But -- all our subsequent trades today were on the long side because we felt buyers would step in somewhere in here. Given how the market internals closed today, the chance of a bounce should be good in the next day or two.













Here is another look with only SPX data -- that is the above MOs are for SP500 components only -- both for Advance / Decline Issues MO and Up / Down Volumes MO. This is a new chart for us -- datawise -- thus we would refrain making any far reaching comments till we are more comfortable with its behaviour.














What I would keep an eye on is the sigma channels for the major vol indices. While VXN hit our target of -2 sigma and then market sold off, the reversal to the upside should come in the +2 sigma area which would translate to 27 for VXO and 29 for VXN.

Trend Change is always very tough to trade. Best advise is too keep your bet size very small and monitor the market internals very carefully throughout the trading day.

Monday, October 19, 2009

The Three Gurus Plus at CBOE Options Webinar

The Three Gurus Plus at CBOE Options WebinarSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Now more than ever, today's options trader needs to focus on successful trading tactics and strategies.

No matter what you trade, or what your experience level, CBOE, the leader in options education and innovative online broker, tradeMONSTER have got you covered! Join The Three Gurus, Fari Hamzei, Price Headley and Larry McMillan plus a panel of their peers in a three-day online options education extravaganza, Nov. 10, 11 & 12, 2009. 3 Gurus Plus, featuring some of the top educators the options industry has to offer at the low volatility, out-of-the-money price of $99.

You'll be introduced to some of the latest trends and cutting-edge tools out there to give you that fresh perspective you need to help make profitable trading decisions.

Space is limited. Go to www.CBOE.com/3Gurus and register now for this unparalleled online event!

Thursday, October 15, 2009

How a pro index futures trader trades ES, DAX, etc

How a pro index futures trader trades ES, DAX, etcSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei


@FuturesTrader71 Impromptu Webinar on how he trades $ES_F

https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/Educational_Webinars.asp

If this is your first time playing back our GoToWebinar videos, you need to install the Citrix Codec on the top of the page.

Sunday, September 27, 2009

How Do I Make Great Futures Trades with ...

How Do I Make Great Futures Trades with ...SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
by James Falvo of FINZ.tv

http://finz.tv/posse/2009/09/25/how-do-i-make-great-future-trades-with-hamzei-analytics-hft-service-9-25-09/

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Proprietary Indicators and Market Timing Video

Proprietary Indicators and Market Timing VideoSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

http://hamzeianalytics.com/Educational_Webinars.asp

Scroll down to Sept 26, 2009
Webinar Agenda (Slides) are posted too

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Real-Time Lessons with Q&A in Hamzei Analytics High Frequency Trading Chatroom

Real-Time Lessons with Q&A in Hamzei Analytics High Frequency Trading ChatroomSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

Real-Time Lessons with Q&A in Hamzei Analytics High Frequency Trading Chatroom


http://finz.tv/posse/2009/09/24/real-time-lessons-with-qa-in-hamzei-analytics-high-frequency-trading-chatroom-9-23-099-24-09/

Monday, September 21, 2009

S&P 500 Futures Technical Picture

S&P 500 Futures Technical PictureSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

Two Major Technical Forces Are About to Collide in the S&P 500

http://www.ino.com/info/449/CD3778/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Inflation and the Fall of the Roman Empire

Inflation and the Fall of the Roman EmpireSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

A MUST READ FOR ALL http://mises.org/story/3663

Friday, September 18, 2009

MissTrade Missive with Fari Hamzei of @HamzeiAnalytics

MissTrade Missive with Fari Hamzei of @HamzeiAnalyticsSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

MissTrade Missive with Fari Hamzei of @hamzeianalytics from miss trade on Vimeo.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Real Time Trading Lessons

Real Time Trading LessonsSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

James Falvo and Jeffrey Lin of FINZtv just posted this on the Twitter:


Real-Time Lessons with Q&A in Hamzei Analytics High Frequency Trading Chatroom 9.15.09 :: POSSE Trader Journal http://bit.ly/4eK1zP



I thought you may want to take a peek at it.

Saturday, August 29, 2009

Test Drive our Proprietary Indicators on TradeStation

Test Drive our Proprietary Indicators on TradeStationSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

TradeStation recently contacted us and provided us a 30-day test-drive access for our client base wishing to start using our Proprietary Indicators on their platform.

If interested, contact us via email ADMIN@HAMZEIANALYTICS.COM and we send you their offer-codes early this coming week. This will cost you $25 for delayed or $50 for real-time data (instead of their normal $250 per month) and you pay that to TradeStation (certain exchange fees, usually, very nominal, may apply).

After you complete your sign-up and install the program on your hard-disk, email us your Customer Number (found in About >> Help) and we will send you a full set of our Proprietary Indicators for 30-day free trial. We will charge you nothing for this period. After 30-days, should you decide to continue, you may do so by visiting this link: http://www.hamzeianalytics.com/prop_indicators_details.asp

Market Timing as of Friday, August 28, 2009

Market Timing as of Friday, August 28, 2009SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Fari Hamzei


Wednesday, August 26, 2009

HFT Introductory Pricing is Over

HFT Introductory Pricing is OverSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

With Brad Sullivan joining us, as promised, our HFT introductory pricing period is over.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Brad Sullivan is back in our HFT Chatroom

Brad Sullivan is back in our HFT ChatroomSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

The venerable Chicago Super Trader, Brad Sullivan, will be rejoining our HFT Chatroom tomorrow. Here is bio, circa 2007.

He now runs money for a major algo shop two blocks from me here in Chicago: http://hamzeianalytics.com/docs/brad_sullivan.pdf


Here is how you can still join us at the introductory price: http://www.hamzeianalytics.com/hft_details.asp

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

The Day After FOMC

The Day After FOMCSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

This chart is courtesy of our newest HFT Chat Moderator, Scott McCray.

Scott McCray, former anchor at Los Angeles Ch 22 Biz TV (the precursor to CNBC), has accepted our invitation to be a Chat Moderator in our HFT Chatroom. Scott is an active options and futures trader with great point of view on Gold, Crude Oil and Stock Index Futures. He was the first person to quote our Dollar Weighted Put/Call Ratios on the air back in summer of 2000.

Here is how you can join us to benefit from Scott's on-the-run commentary: http://www.hamzeianalytics.com/hft_details.asp

Sunday, August 9, 2009

High Frequency Trading on Twitter

High Frequency Trading on TwitterSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

Trades Stock Index Futures and Options

with LIVE CHART STREAMER

and Java-based Chatroom

For more details, click here http://tl.gd/c8td

Saturday, August 8, 2009

Updated SP1 - MoMo Chart

Updated SP1 - MoMo ChartSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Updated Analysis:
The Song Remains the Same

Friday, August 7, 2009

SP1 MoMo Chart -- Market Timing

SP1 MoMo Chart -- Market TimingSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Our coveted SP1-MoMo chart is featured today on Chart Junkie by @wallCS (on Twitter): http://wallstcheatsheet.com/?p=1165

Best to review before the OPEN.


Follow us on Twitter by clicking here: http://twitter.com/HamzeiAnalytics

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Where is the Outrage ??

Where is the Outrage ??SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

Last Friday, the front page of the Wall Street Journal blared: “Nine Lenders That Got Aid Have $33 Billion Bonus Tab.”

Read more >>> http://tinyurl.com/n7jmkz

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Demystifying High Frequency Trading

Demystifying High Frequency TradingSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
I was interviewed by Damien Hoffman for GreenFaucet.com. Thanks !!

See http://www.greenfaucet.com/economy/demystifying-high-frequency-trading/77528

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Trading Apple Call Options thru the Earnings Report

Trading Apple Call Options thru the Earnings ReportSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

More color on that gigantic SPY put trade on Thursday

More color on that gigantic SPY put trade on ThursdaySocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

I now have more color on that gigantic SPY put trade (720K contracts) executed last Thursday on ISE:

It was a 120K by 240K put backspread rolled from August to December, executed on behalf a major US-based hedge fund;

120k of Aug 92 puts were traded up to Dec 95 puts

and

240K of Aug 80 puts were traded up to Dec 82 puts;

the transaction was virtually fresh cash-neutral for the fund.

-------------
What is a "put backspread" ??

From OXPS education webpages:

Put back spreads are great strategies when you are expecting big downward moves in already volatile stocks. The trade itself involves selling a put at a higher strike and buying a greater number of puts at a lower strike price.

Ideally, this trade will be initiated for a minimal debit or possibly a small credit. This way, if the stock gains ground, you won't suffer much either way. On the other hand, if the stock drops as you hope, the profit potential will be significant because you have more long than short puts. To maximize the potential for this position, many traders use in-the-money options because they have a higher likelihood of finishing in-the-money.

------
http://www.optionsxpress.com/educate/strategies/putbackspread.aspx

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Barron's The Striking Price Article on Market Volatility

Barron's The Striking Price Article on Market VolatilitySocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei was quoted today in Barron's options column by Steven Sears

http://tinyurl.com/ml6488

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Market Timing Commentary as of Thursday, July 23, 2009

Market Timing Commentary as of Thursday, July 23, 2009SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

Please Note: These charts are from the end of regular trading hours on Thursday, July 23, 2009.

MSFT, AMZN, AXP, COF, BRCM and JNPR all reported after the 4 pm NYC close today and they all missed, some by little, and MSFT & AXP, by not so little. All were taken to the woodshed for some much-neglected discipline. They are down, some heavy, in the after hours trading. We live and trade in a very frothy world, the management teams, were repeatedly reminded.

And for Reg. FD purposes, our Phoenix Traders went long JNPR Aug A-T-M Puts yesterday at about 2pm EDT. And, today at about 212 pm EDT, we doubled that position, very near the market high. After JNPR reported a double digit fall in revenues, a slide in margins and gave a disappointing outlook, I was asked on Twitter, why AAPL long calls on Tuesday and JNPR long puts today? My answer was simple: trading is all about market intel [something you won't find on CNBC]. We both laughed it out loud.

Let's go thru some charts. First my favorite, Sp1-MoMo chart. "Let's get really overbought" was name of the game today. After all, the venerable money manager Bill Miller of Legg Mason, wrote last night "the worst has passed" and "bargains abound in the US stock market" to his Legg Mason Value Trust fund.

NYSE Advance/Decline Line closed +2088 and SP1 back again above +2 sigma with MoMo at +45. Remember, as I mentioned in the last Friday video, posted further below, we could stay here and see these types of high readings both in relative (SP1) and absolute (MoM0) terms for some time. No guarantee we will just fall off the cliff here just because we are overbought. As always, I look for the requisite "catalyst" in geopolitics, Fed, White House, Wall Street, Pentagon, Big Oil, etc etc.

Next is our Wyckoff Chart. Notice we have moved 1,000 DJIA points in 9 trading days (spanning some 4 sigmas). Today, DJIA closed for the first time over 9,000, trading above last Jan 2nd high and came within 200 pts of Nov 4th Election Day price range.

In like fashion, DJ Trans moved some 4.5 sigmas: (Economy going forward will do well -- what commercial real estate problems, consumer credit, forget about it -- Washington will save 'em too -- and please, quit complaining about retail vacancy rates on Miracle Mile). And, RUT (risk-loving is back, its Index Futures at one point were up almost 4% today) and NAZZ Composite (closing higher 13-days in a row) all screamed in unison: Xmas is here early. Yeah, for sure !!

But not our beloved Vols. There were smarter of the bunch, and they stopped dropping in face of rapid ascend rate in the equities. VXN rode down the -2 sigma line, three days in a row last week, and as expected (as in last Friday video), it pulled backup, albeit, very very slowly until today. Both VXO & VXN closed higher today, as smart money started to buy some puts for downside protection. And Market Makers smelled it and adjusted those bid/asks, albeit by rapid-fire algo trades.

One fund rolled UP its SPY August downside protection at 92 strike into December 95 strike, for some 72,000,000 shares of SPY (S&P-500 ETF) it holds. Yes, 720K put contracts on SPY, a "jaw dropper," was one trade today that cleared at the ISE in NYC.

Last but not the least, here is our Timer Chart. With NYSE McClellan Oscillator (MO) at +226 and NAZZ at +144, with CI Indicators lit RED, SPX at +2 sigma, NDX above +2 sigma, we are short-term overbought again. Just look at Up/Down MO for NAZZ, it is almost +210. With Volume, being a coincident indicator, we should brace for a pullback.
Now with MSFT latest report, the TechLand recovery roadmap got a lot fuzzier. And with AXP and COF results showing consumer finances remaining in stress, the retail spending should remain below trend.

Now I said the same thing some eight weeks ago and nothing happened. We simply traded in a range. This time, it may be different. Tomorrow could be for the history books as the spin meisters will try to put a fresh new lipstick on this pit bull.


A Note of Thanks: We are immensely indebted to our learned colleague, Steven Sears, the Editor of The Striking Price Column at Barron's for his valuable & speedy research regarding the SPY trade today.




Sunday, July 19, 2009

Trading Futures during American-style Options Expirations

Trading Futures during American-style Options ExpirationsSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Trading Futures during European-style Options Expirations

Trading Futures during European-style Options ExpirationsSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Market Timing Commentary

Market Timing CommentarySocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Today we passed the 3,000 Followers mark on Twitter

Today we passed the 3,000 Followers mark on TwitterSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

As promised back in May, to commemorate this milestone, we are offering 3 of our most popular packages -- at 33% off of our regular prices -- Proprietary Indicators, Phoenix Options Newsletter and Index Futures Chatroom and Streamer, as our Summer Specials.

Sign-up links are posted on Twitter. Just go to http://twitter.com/HamzeiAnalytics to take advantage of this offer (which expires on end of business Friday, July 10th).

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Market Commentary as of Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Market Commentary as of Wednesday, July 8, 2009SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

We still stand by our May 22nd intermediate bias change, to the short side, which was again re-iterated on our June 12th blogpost here.

What is clear now is the very short-term over-sold condition we are in. The chance of short-term rebound (a dead cat bounce) has increased as we enter the Q2 Earnings Season.

This is evidenced by our MoMo reading (first chart) of below -30 as denoted by the green horizontal line and VXO trading near +3 sigma today (second chart).








Friday, June 12, 2009

Market Commentary as of Friday, June 12, 2009

Market Commentary as of Friday, June 12, 2009SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

As you can see in the charts below, starting with the left hand side, the rising S&P-500 Cash Index has been accompanied with lower and lower directional momentum, and thus creating a "bearish divergence" with the SPX.

In the right hand side chart, we show two proprietary modified Breadth (Advance Decline) data subgraphs. The longer term sub-graph (SP1) shows a modified cum A/D line superimposed with its sigma channels. The lower subgraph, MoMo, is a short-term A/D Oscillator. Notice the long-term vs short-term are also in a very pronounced "bearish divergence" pattern.

THIS TECHNICAL ANOMALY WILL NOT LAST FOREVER. It will resolve itself sooner than later. What is currently unknown is that the proper catalyst for the upcoming reversal.

If you are LONG, watch your trades very closely. If you plan to STAY LONG, start looking for some portfolio insurance (O-T-M Index /ETF Puts).


Sunday, June 7, 2009

Market Timing Commentary as of Friday, June 5th, 2009

Market Timing Commentary as of Friday, June 5th, 2009SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

A mixed picture at best, is one way to describe the latest US Equity Market charts and internals line-up.

And I am standing by my May 22nd short bias on SPX for Timer Digest's "Timer of the Year Competition." That being an intermediate term signal, my charts and indicators tell me to give this short a bit more time to work itself out. Here are some reasons why:

1. SP-500 Advance Decline Line Diverging (in an "M" pattern) from the Cash Index itself is trading higher (Chart 1, 2nd subgraph).
2. Volatility Indices receding again (setting up for a "W" before spiking higher - Chart 2).
3. Signs of Bond Vigilantes coming back -- TBT price action and options activity.






















Sunday, May 24, 2009

Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Notice of Change of Bias with Timer DigestSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei


Dear Jim,
Please log me in as SHORT on SPX as of Friday, May 22nd, 2009 Close of 887.00.

Have a great Memorial Day Weekend......Go Danica Go !!!



Tuesday, May 19, 2009

A Quick VXO (the original VIX) Update

A Quick VXO (the original VIX) UpdateSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

In my last webinar, on May 9th, I talked about VIX/VXO/VXN complex trading below 30. But as you recall, I talked about not the absolute level of this complex, but rather, its relative level (in Sigma Levels).

As you can see from the chart below, today, we broke 30 on VXO but we did NOT get to trade at -3 Sigma Level. That level now stands at 26. That is our next goal post. A bounce from 26 should mark a short-term "maxima" in prices for this leg.

More on this and other Mark Timing Tools, this Saturday in my webinar.


Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Market Timing Charts Update

Market Timing Charts UpdateSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

We had a few emails asking us for a quick update on our Market Timing Charts given the price action we have experienced in the last couple of days. Here they are:

Worth noting:
A) McClellan Oscillators have entered a slight oversold condition (down to less than -100 readings in three trading days).
B) SPX failed to touch its 200-day Moving Average.
C) NDX closed below its 200-day Moving Average. We talked about this possibility in our last Saturday Webinar
D) Down to Up Volume Ratios in NYSE and NAZZ were 11 and 22 to 1, respectively.



Note: Huge drop in DJ Trans and Russell 2000 to -1 sigma level. Bad leading indicator for the economy (going forward) and risk-takers (weak hands in small caps got their head handed to them).




Note: VXO bounced off -2 sigma yesterday and jumped today. Never made it to -3 sigma (our target). May Options X is here in the earnest.

Friday, May 8, 2009

Outside Bar on SPX and Rapid Deceleration of NDX Momentum

Outside Bar on SPX and Rapid Deceleration of NDX MomentumSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

These two observations, ahead of the much anticipated April Non-Farm-Payroll data to be released tomorrow at 0830 EDT, call for high level of vigilance and alertness. We discussed their ramifications in detail on the Twitter tonight.

Trade Well Tomorrow.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

The Ord Oracle on SPX and Gold

The Ord Oracle on SPX and GoldSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Tim Ord


Momentum is the name of the game for now and right now most momentum indicators are still moving higher (NYSE Summation index and Cumulative advance/decline line on chart above). Yesterday the SPX jumped through the 875 resistance and for now the 875 area made provide support. If the Momentum indicators don’t turn down for near term then the market may head to the January high near 940 level. We have draw a line from the 940 range which could turn into a Neckline of a Head and Shoulders bottom where the left shoulder came back at the November 08 lows. If the SPX tests the January highs on higher volume then that would be a very bullish development and give credit to the Head and Shoulders bottom pattern. A pull back still would be expect and could pull back down where the Left Shoulder bottom which is near 740 range. There is an old adage that says “Sell in May and Go away” and may hold true this year also. We will watch the Bullish Percent index, Summation index, Cumulative Advance/decline line and MACD closely for the next clues for a downturn in the market.


Above is the Venture Composite index ($CDNX). This index has around 528 small mining companies that are mostly small gold miners along with some small oil companies. This index is a gold proxy for small junior gold miners’ performance. In the middle window is the ratio between CDNX and XAU. When this ratio is rising is shows that the small gold miners (CDNX) is outperforming the big gold miners (XAU). In generals we expect this ratio to continue to rise for the longer term. What this ratio implies is that the smaller gold companies will outperform the larger gold companies in the months and possible years to come. However, we will wait to buy these issues until the pull back is complete. See next chart.


Above is GDX. We have labeled what we believe is the correct count for Elliott Wave. An Elliott Wave 5 was completed at the February high near 38. Currently GDX is performing a consolidation in the from of an ABC and GDX is about to start the next 5 count down in the “C” leg. The “C” should end near 27 which is also the bottom of Wave 4 and an Ideal place where normally consolidation end. From the 27 level, GDX should start another Elliott wave 5 count up that should not be less then the first Elliott wave 5 count up that started in October 08. The Elliott 5 count up from the 08 low traveled 22 points. Add 22 points to the next possible low near 27, would give an upside target to 47 at a minimum. A lot of times Wave 3 of larger degree (that is what the next wave up will be) is extended. Our view is that it will reach near 57. We still expect a pull back to possible 27 over the next several weeks so we will put off any new buys until then.

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Market Timing Commentary as of Friday, May 1st, 2009

Market Timing Commentary as of Friday, May 1st, 2009SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

As we mentioned on Twitter Saturday morning, we observed that market Vols are continuing to collapse [in a ~ 5.5-week cycle]. To see this from a better perspective, this week for the first time, we have included a second "Sigma of the Vols" chart. This second chart is Weekly. It allows us to step back and see a better picture. Even though to a naked eye, it looks as if the Vols have receded quite a bed (vs. last Fall high readings), both in absolute and relative values, the true short/term undercurrents are not so clear. This week we plan to data-mine our real/time datafeed for more unusual block-trade activity and it should be a good tell. More on that issue next week in our Saturday webinar. Suffice to say, that we are reading a few NYSE large liquidity providers may have had a lot to do with this.

In any event, our first target south for the Vols shall be -2 sigma on the Weekly chart. That puts the VXO/VXN/VIX Complex at approximately a 30 marker.






As we discussed last Sunday on this Blog, this week, as expected, NASDAQ-100 (NDX) tested its 200-day Moving Average (white curve in the right hand graph in the Timer Chart below) and the 1400 psychological level. The Timer Chart also shows that the McClellan Oscillators for NYSE and NAZZ eased off by Friday May 1st Close with readings of +133 and +67 (down from +167 and 86), respectively.

What is more important is that the Bearish Divergences we continue to see develop further in Prices vs McClellan Oscillators. Somewhere in here, somehow, a catalyst will force the Prices to give in. Again, brace yourself with a of tad of O-T-M ETF Puts as a low cost insurance here for your portfolio.


As the next chart, (our WEEKLY Wyckoff) shows, the volume was lower this week than last on higher index prices. Again this is not good.

Next notice DJ Transportation Index (lower left subgraph) is flat (and parallel with its 20-week Mov Avg -- thin yellow line) here. This Index normally telegraphs market expectation of general economy as a whole 6 to 9 month hence. It is FLAT here.

The lower right subgraph, the Russell 2000 (RUT), our favorite Small Caps Index, which gives us a sense of relative risk-taking by market participants in aggregate form, has a more gradual upward sloping graph and a lower Sigma Level compared to NASDAQ-100 (NDX), right above it. Market participants are piling into big caps to seek refuge from the market risk of small caps.

THIS IS NOT GOOD AT ALL for the LONG side of the Market.

Bottom Line: We should see some indices' price retracements soon. Maybe the catalyst will be the Money Center Banks Stress Tests Results, to be released a few trading hours before the April Non-Farm-Payroll, that which is slated for release on Friday May 8th at 0830 EDT.

Trade Well This Week.....


Friday, May 1, 2009

Twitter Challenge Update

Twitter Challenge UpdateSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

As the Stock Index Futures closed today, our Twitter Followers met our challenge and pushed us over the 2,000 mark.

Brasil61 won a copy of my book, Master Traders, in the ReTweeting raffle that helped us push over the top.

Thank you all.

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Market Timing Commentary as of Friday, April 24, 2009

Market Timing Commentary as of Friday, April 24, 2009SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

As we mentioned in our Saturday Webinar, we think this week the key chart is NASDAQ-100 (NDX). With the 200 day Moving Average at 1399, a test of 1400 psychological level is a given.

The McClellan Oscillators for NYSE and NAZZ began heading up again on Thursday and Friday with readings of 167 and 86, respectively. Given the intensity of the advance we have had from March 9th lows, we should NOT categorize these readings as overbought. Since the index levels are just above +1 sigma, we expect a tad higher readings this week on both these Indices and Indicators before a pullback.

Notice CIs are lit RED and in case of NDX, it still has an upward slope.


What is more important is the Bearish Divergence we continue to see in Prices vs McClellan Oscillators. Somewhere in here, the prices will give in. Brace yourself with a of tad of ETF puts a low cost insurance. Also worth noting is a slight upward bias in volume at both exchanges.

Vols are continue to get washed out of our system. That is a good sign. Again, we will go into full alert if we see a -3 or -4 sigma reading for VXO and/or VXN (see chart below).


We remain midly bullish for a few more days but one must be very alert here.

Master Tarder Jeffrey Spotts on Fox Business Channel

Master Tarder Jeffrey Spotts on Fox Business ChannelSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

Do not miss Hedge Fund Manager Jeffrey Spotts (who contributed to Master Traders) on Fox Business Channel talking about Ford Motor Co. (F)

Here is the link:
http://www.foxbusiness.com/video-search/m/22153362/time-for-a-stock-fiesta.htm

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Timer and Vols Charts (used in our last Webinar)

Timer and Vols Charts (used in our last Webinar)SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

We are Overbought with McClellan Oscillator reading of +223. Notice CI is lit RED but still with positive (rising) slope.


Vols are beginning to get washed out of our system. That is a good sign. We need to see a -3 or -4 sigma reading for VXO and VXN.

Friday, April 17, 2009

TBT Trade 140% Profit in 17 Calendar Days

TBT Trade 140% Profit in 17 Calendar DaysSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
From: phoenixalerts@hamzeianalytics.com [mailto:phoenixalerts@hamzeianalytics.com] On Behalf Of Phoenix Equity & Index Options Trading Service
Sent: Monday, January 26, 2009 9:45 AM
To: PHOENIX Equity & Index OptionsSubject: EXIT NOW: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our Ninety Fourth Trade is TBT Feb Calls
Exit this trade at the MARKET now
bid / ask is 5.90 to 6.10

F



From: phoenixalerts@hamzeianalytics.com [mailto:phoenixalerts@hamzeianalytics.com] On Behalf Of Phoenix Equity & Index Options Trading Service
Sent: Friday, January 09, 2009 12:47 PM
To: PHOENIX Equity & Index OptionsSubject: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our Ninety Fourth Trade is TBT Feb Calls

94th Trade: BUY to OPEN Five (5) UltraShort Lehman 20Yr+ T-Bonds (TBT) Feb 40 Calls (TBT BN) when TBT trades at 40.20 or lower (its Monthly Pivot Price)

Current Price of ETF is 41.10
Current Bid/Ask on the option is 3.00 to 3.20 -- with a 60 delta, your entry price should be around $2.45
-- so be patient.

Trade Type: This is a Sigma Scanner Trade
Rationale: Today, TBT is trading just below +1 sigma on 20 day MA.

Its Dollar-weighted Put/Call is 0.33 (Bullish)
Its UniVol is 51 (this is a volatile ETF)

Godspeed Phoenix.....
Fari Hamzei
FounderHamzei Analytics, LLC
Tel: (310) 306-1200
Fax: (806) 398-1200
Cell: (310) 995-8386
Email: Fari@HamzeiAnalytics.com
GMail: HamzeiAnalytics@GMail.com
YAHOO IM: Hamzei_Analytics

CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: This email message is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and may contain confidential and/or privileged information. Any unauthorized review, use, disclosure or distribution is prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender by reply email and destroy all copies of the original message.

QCOM Trade 60% Profit in 7 Calendar Days

QCOM Trade 60% Profit in 7 Calendar DaysSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
From: m_s_a@hamzeianalytics.com [mailto:m_s_a@hamzeianalytics.com] On Behalf Of Hamzei Analytics LLC Admin
Sent: Tuesday, March 31, 2009 10:24 AM
To: Matt
Subject: Update 2: EXIT Order: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our One Hundredth & First Trade is QCOM May Calls

we were not filled on Thursday with our 2.60 exit day order (see below) -- trying again on a GTC order

looks to me that in a day or two, QCOM will test its +2 sigma on the daily chart -- which is about 40.53
that's $1.40 from here
our May 40 Call option currently has a 51 delta
therefore, a move up to +2 sigma should bring up the market price of option to about 2.99

so let's put a GTC order to Exit this trade at $2.95 or better
this is NOT a day order

current Bid / Ask is 2.26 - 2.30

F




From: Hamzei Analytics LLC Admin [mailto:Admin@HamzeiAnalytics.com]
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 1:02 PM
To: MSA (M_S_A@HamzeiAnalytics.com)
Subject: EXIT Order: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our One Hundredth & First Trade is QCOM May Calls

Exit this trade at 2.60 or better -- this is a Day Order

current bid /ask is 2.43 -- 2.45

FH


From: Hamzei Analytics LLC Admin [mailto:Admin@HamzeiAnalytics.com]
Sent: Tuesday, March 24, 2009 2:01 PM
To: MSA (M_S_A@HamzeiAnalytics.com)
Subject: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our One Hundredth & First Trade is QCOM May Calls

101st Trade: BUY to OPEN Five (5) Qualcomm (QCOM) May 40 Calls (AAOEH) @ 1.85 or better -- this is a DAY ORDER

Current Price of QCOM is 38.18
Current Bid/Ask on the option is 1.90 to 1.91
After your Entry, put your SELL STOP @ 0.90
Trade Type: This is a Sigma Scanner Trade
Rationale: Today, QCOM is trading just above +1 sigma.

Its Dollar-weighted Put/Call is 0.32 (BULLISH)
Its UniVol is 50 (this is a volatile stock)


Godspeed Phoenix.....
Fari Hamzei
FounderHamzei Analytics, LLC
Tel: (310) 306-1200
Fax: (806) 398-1200
Cell: (310) 995-8386
Email: Fari@HamzeiAnalytics.com
GMail: HamzeiAnalytics@GMail.com
YAHOO IM: Hamzei_Analytics

CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: This email message is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and may contain confidential and/or privileged information. Any unauthorized review, use, disclosure or distribution is prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender by reply email and destroy all copies of the original message.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

High Probability Trades on Twitter Challenge

High Probability Trades on Twitter ChallengeSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
What you see below, is 80% return in five calendar days (actually, 2 trading days). This SNDA trade was a high probability trade using a proprietary two-factor scan. As our equity markets revolve to become more "normal," we should see more of this type of occurrence. It won't be every day. But I am willing to dig for them.

Here is my challenge to you:

We now have 660 people on Twitter in just 2 days of operations. Help us get to 2,000 followers on Twitter by May 1st (two weeks from now) and I will put one or two trades a month, like the SNDA trade, on the Twitter (again, with entry, stop loss and exit). It won't be easy but I will try to find them for you.

So, start by contacting your trading buddies and invite them to join us on the Twitter. Here is our handle www.twitter.com/HamzeiAnalytics. Better yet, Tweet your followers on the Twitter to follow us. You can even re-Tweet some of my tweets to your trading buddies. In the last two days, if you login, you can see, each day, I have nailed the last hour.

Fari


From: Hamzei Analytics LLC Admin [mailto:Admin@HamzeiAnalytics.com]
Sent: Monday, April 13, 2009 9:04 AM
To: MSA (M_S_A@HamzeiAnalytics.com)
Subject: EXIT NOW: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our One Hundred & Seventh Trade is SNDA May Calls


EXIT this trade at the Market....... NOW...NOW... NOW

Bid /Ask is 3.20 to 3.50
Last is 3.30

FH


From: m_s_a@hamzeianalytics.com [mailto:m_s_a@hamzeianalytics.com] On Behalf Of Hamzei Analytics LLC Admin
Sent: Wednesday, April 08, 2009 12:53 PM
To: AdminSubject: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our One Hundred & Seventh Trade is SNDA May Calls


107th Trade: BUY to OPEN Five (5) Shanda Interactive Entertainment (SNDA) May 50 Calls (QKU EJ) @ 1.90 or better -- this is a DAY ORDER

Current Price of SNDA 45.15
Current Bid/Ask on the option is 1.90 to 2.05
After your Entry, put your SELL STOP @ 0.85

Trade Type: This is a Technical Analysis Trade -- a 3% breakout above its 52-week high !!!

Rationale: Today, SNDA is trading just above its +2 sigma.




Godspeed Phoenix.....
Fari Hamzei
Founder
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tel: (310) 306-1200
Fax: (806) 398-1200
Cell: (310) 995-8386
Email: Fari@HamzeiAnalytics.com
GMail: HamzeiAnalytics@GMail.com
YAHOO IM: Hamzei_Analytics

Follow us on Twitter: www.twitter.com/HamzeiAnalytics
MSA EMails: Unsubscribe Update

CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: This email message is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and may contain confidential and/or privileged information. Any unauthorized review, use, disclosure or distribution is prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender by reply email and destroy all copies of the original message.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Get our options trades and market commentary faster on Twitter

Get our options trades and market commentary faster on TwitterSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

Here is our account http://twitter.com/HamzeiAnalytics

Follow us on Twitter -- it is FREE !!

Monday, March 23, 2009

It Is Time

It Is TimeSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei



Historically, a major bank bailout by Government is very bullish for the stock market 6 to 12 months hence.


Generous government financing announced today by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will underpin the so-called Public-Private Investment Program aiming to rid banks of up to $1 trillion in toxic asset-backed securities which are road blocking the economic recovery. Dept of Treasury kicked this Program off with $75-$100 billion that comes from its existing $700-billion bailout fund approved by Congress last fall. Both FDIC and Federal Reserve are also partners in this program to provide additional debt financing as a way to leverage up both TARP and TALF resources. This morning, both PIMCO and BlackRock have expressed strong interests to participate. This is all very good news.


This Program could be classified as the Mother of all Bank Bailouts. I say could, because, given all the recent false starts, it may take the Treasury up to couple months to properly set the Program up and then up 3 to 6 months to see any concrete results.
Given Stock Market is a forward discounting mechanism, it may be the right time to slowly step back in. As many of you know, to conserve capital, we scaled back our trading tremendously since October-November timeframe as our equity markets became over driven by outsized fear and not by logic. Now, with the events of last two weeks, my thinking is that we may want to slowly put our toes in. Initially, our trades will not be swinging for the fence. We need to hit a few singles and doubles first.


Given how everyone is on a very tight budget these days, we offer two avenues:


A) For the next three months, we will email 2 trades per month (from entry, stop management and exit instructions) to all MSA Members free of charge. This List has over 10,000 opted-in (3X of last year) and it may take several minutes to email out the order to all. The trades will be biased both long and short. As in the past, each trade will offer a rationale, a clear entry instruction (normally at a limit price) with a stop management price once we are in. Exit orders will be either limit or market orders.


B) Reduce our monthly fee by 50% for those who want to receive 1 to 3 trades per week very fast. Again, they will be both biased long and short. Here is the link http://www.hamzeianalytics.com/phoenix_spring_special.asp



And, do not miss our webinar this weekend. We will go over these items this Saturday and answer any questions you may have.

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