Showing posts with label #ES_F #SPY #IWM #TF_F #QQQ #NQ_F #AAPL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #ES_F #SPY #IWM #TF_F #QQQ #NQ_F #AAPL. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 28, 2020

#NQ_F Daily + Weekly SPR plus IB Levels Chart for Tuesday , January 28. 2020

#NQ_F Daily + Weekly SPR plus IB Levels Chart for Tuesday , January 28. 2020SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Monday, August 3, 2015

Index #ES_F #SPY & #AAPL #FB Bias Update and Levels for Monday, August 3, 2015

Index #ES_F #SPY & #AAPL #FB Bias Update and Levels for Monday, August 3, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

For now the lower high formation continues again this week in US indexes and also in some key names as well post earnings like AAPL and FB; however the overnight session for index futures and the pre-market session for indexes and stocks has been more on the flat side which means there is no definite confirmation that bearish lower high formation follow through is certain today or at least not yet.

Currently my ESU5 SPX SPY swing bias is leaning more on the Short side against the macro lower high which formed last week at ESU5 2108s. If above 2108s I will negate a shorter-term bearish bias and then start targeting 2114s/15s to start building macro long-term SPY Put positions which I will definitely and aggressively add to the Puts at any new low volume ATH, but if ESU5 gets and holds below the Daily Sigma center (yellow) at 2096s/95s before higher I will expect better chance that the lower high formation will have immediate follow through to the first ESU5 target at 2084s-2082s zone.

For IWM the lower high formation threshold is just below 125, for NQU5 the threshold is at 4646s, AAPL is at 123.90, FB is at 97.60, AMZN is at 549/550, IBB is at 390/391, and GPRO is at 63.30

Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Index #ES_F #SPY & #AAPL #FB Bias Update and Levels for Thursday, July 30, 2015

Index #ES_F #SPY & #AAPL #FB Bias Update and Levels for Thursday, July 30, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

So far the theme this earnings (ER) season has been rally of good ERs like NFLX GOOGL AMZN GPRO and then fade in the next few trading sessions or if at/near ATHs with high expectations pre-ERs stocks like AAPL and FB stall and/or drop if not blowout ERs.

Putting ERs aside or when ERs are unable to lead the S&P500, SPY, ES-emini index to new ATHs on heavy volume and when Fed events like FOMC this week become the only reason indexes catch a bid and do so on extremely low volume can only mean one thing which is a “topping process” or at least that is how it was pre-QE3. What most people, traders, and investors don’t know is if even when continuing higher new ATHs on very low volume is still a topping process; it’s all about volume to confirm the strength of breakouts and breakdowns.

Without a new catalyst such as ERs bringing in new buyers on heavy volume and when indexes only bid on Fed hope US equities will not be able to push much higher without some sort of meaningful pull-back or correction. Unfortunately my personal belief is QE3 has destroyed the honesty of historical stock market patterns which also unfortunately means the current mindset of the US stock market is BTD will never fail, but just like when no one believed the housing real estate market in 2004-2008 would ever stop reality always catches up and when the time comes the drop in US stocks will likely be a lot more than just a pull-back or correction.

I see the tweets throughout ever trading session and I can tell most people, traders, and investors believe stocks will never crash again; same mindset of most Americans just before the housing bubble burst in 2008 and also just before the bubble burst in 1999/2000 as well. I lived, traded, and bought/sold real estate in both the and housing bubble and I can a sure you this time is no different and is just a normal 7 to 8 year cycle. I will be willing to bet all the guest who go on CNBC and say “this time is different” will be the same guest who say “all signs where there for stocks to crash” which they will do so after the fact.

For now and as I tweeted yesterday (@mocktrade) the only index that breached the lower high threshold was ESU5, and until all others follow the lower higher formation in the indexes and almost all names who have reported ERs should continue as follows:

IWM while below 122.40-122.90 zone 118s remain a potential target.

ESU5 will have to first get and hold below 2080 to head towards 2050s otherwise 2108s-2112s zone more likely.

NQU5 until above 4582s-4585s zone there is potential for lower.

AAPL while below 125s a first potential targets remain at 121.80-121.55 zone then at 117s.

FB while below 97.60 and especially while below 96.75 the lower targets are at 90.40 then 88s.

AMZN must get back above 549/550 to avoid lower.

NFLX must get back above 110.55 to avoid lower.

GPRO must get back above 63.25 to avoid lower.

Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

#ES_F #TF_F #IWM #NQ_F #AAPL Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, July 29, 2015

#ES_F #TF_F #IWM #NQ_F #AAPL Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, July 29, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

For now I am still holding half of my Short swing bias against the lower high formation I have been mentioning since last Thursday, especially after seeing AAPL not participating in yesterday’s index rally along with a hand full of other key stocks/leaders as well.

My thoughts now are the US stock market is definitely in some sort of hope for very dovish remarks from the Fed today and likely so due to the fact that earnings (ERs) so far have not been able to lead ESU5/SPY to new ATHs even after great ERs from some of the big leaders GOOGL NFLX AMZN and APPL. If ERs are failing to equal new ATHs the only catalyst that is left to push the indexes to new ATHs on heavy volume is the Fed.

I did try to hedge my remaining half SPY swing Short position via SPY Puts just before the close on Tuesday due to FOMC this week but unfortunately my thoughts of a potential stop run into close was negated by the double bottom so I missed the hedge opportunity.

Regardless of FOMC I still have a close eye on AAPL to help give clues if I should remain Short SPY via Puts (or not) which my eye is now on the daily center Sigma at 123.30-125.50 zone. Until above 125.50 AAPL will have potential to head towards 121.80-121.50 zone then 117s.

For the indexes IWM needs to hold below 122.45-122.95 zone for chance of continuing lower to 118s with ease, ESU5 must hold below the key weekly resistance at 2095s-2097s zone, and NQU5 below 4585s

Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Monday, July 27, 2015

#ES_F #TF_F #NQ_F Bias Update and Levels for Monday, July 27, 2015

#ES_F #TF_F #NQ_F Bias Update and Levels for Monday, July 27, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

The macro lower high formation mentioned late last week in all indexes including AAPL as well is continuing at the start of this week, and until this formation in breached I will remain swing-Short via SPY puts from Thursday morning.

For today IWM must remain below 122s in order to continue lower to 120.20, ESU5 must remain below 2080s-2082s zone for chance of reaching 2055s/54s, NQU5 must stay below 4582s/83s to reach 4495s/94s, and AAPL must hold below 125.30 for chance to reach the first lower target at 122.20 then a key support at 121.80.

Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Friday, July 24, 2015

#ES_F #TF_F #NQ_F Bias Update and Levels for Friday, July 24, 2015

#ES_F #TF_F #NQ_F Bias Update and Levels for Friday, July 24, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Other than NQU5 (due to AMZN’s earnings after the close yesterday) ESU5/SPY and TFU5/IWM are still in a macro lower high formation and now AAPL can be added to the list as well. No doubt AMZN ignited the squeeze in NQU5 but what I took note to was the fact that ESU5 did not squeeze in the same manner as NQU5 and TFU5 did absolutely nothing after AMZN reported.

The question now is will this Friday (today) be the same as the Friday after GOOGL reported earnings which had NQ flying to the moon while ES/SPY & TF/IWM remained in a tight range chop & grind session, or will ES & TF/IWM catch up to NQ this time, or will the NQ rally be short-lived especially if AAPL does not rally today.

For today IWM needs to remain below 124.80 and also breach below 123 in order to remain in the lower high formation with ease, ESU5/SPY must hold below 2108s-2112s zone and then breach below 2090, and AAPL must hold below 126.90 and then breach below 123.60.

Eye will be more on APPL today more so than NQ, but I will be watching the 4608 level for NQ as the line in sand (LIS) if yesterday’s late day rally will hold or not. 

Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

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