Showing posts with label Corporate Bonds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Corporate Bonds. Show all posts

Monday, December 19, 2011

Answers about Spread Ratios for Treasury Bonds & Notes

Answers about Spread Ratios for Treasury Bonds & NotesSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Long time institutional futures broker George Cavaligos answers questions about spreads for treasury bonds and notes. Specifically, Cavaligos discusses what the ratio should be between different bonds and notes used in a spread.

See George's Daily Commentary on http://nakedtrader.com

Original Webinar Date: October 19, 2011. For more educational webinars: http://hamzeianalytics.com/educational_webinars.asp

Friday, December 16, 2011

Treasury Bonds & Notes a New Global Currency

Treasury Bonds & Notes a New Global CurrencySocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
From the Q&A session of the Treasury Bonds & Notes webinar, George Cavaligos explains how, for many central banks, treasury bonds and notes are becoming a new global currency.

See George's Daily Commentary on http://nakedtrader.com

Original Webinar Date: October 19, 2011. For more educational webinars: http://hamzeianalytics.com/educational_webinars.asp

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

What Should New Bond Traders Know?

What Should New Bond Traders Know?SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
George Cavaligos lists several things beginning bond traders should know about the treasury market including what influences the treasury market and how to trade treasury bonds and notes. This clip is from the Q&A session of the Treasury Bonds and Notes Webinar with George Cavaligos.

See George's Daily Commentary on http://nakedtrader.com

Original Webinar Date: October 19, 2011. For more educational webinars: http://hamzeianalytics.com/educational_webinars.asp


Monday, December 12, 2011

Treasury Bonds & Notes for Stock Traders

Treasury Bonds & Notes for Stock TradersSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Excerpt from Treasury Bonds & Notes webinar with George Cavaligos, a long time institutional futures broker. Cavaligos explains the basics of the treasury market, treasury spreads, and the details of various treasury futures contracts as they relate to stock and equity futures traders.

See George's Daily Commentary on http://nakedtrader.com

Original Webinar Date: October 19, 2011. For more educational webinars: http://hamzeianalytics.com/educational_webinars.asp

Friday, October 12, 2007

Random Comments

Random CommentsSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fil Zucchi

I will refrain from too many comments on the nasty reversal we saw yesterday, since there are far smarter technical eyes in this community than me. Rather, a few thoughts on specific names and areas:

  • Keep a close eye on the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and its proxies, companies like Paragon Shipping (PRGN), Quintana Marine (QMAR), and Dryships (DRYS). In my view they reflect better than anything else the true state of the world tangible economy; and in hindsight I believe they will be seen as the telltale sign of coming runaway inflation. Since July the Index has gone parabolic, with dry bulk shipping rates going through the roof, and there’s anecdotal evidence that the flipping game that spread from stocks, to homes, to commercial real estate, has now infected the “vessels” asset class. Yesterday’s break in these stocks arrived after several days of vertical moves on massive volume. If the BDI follows the stocks breaks, you can kick one more leg from under the broader market.

  • Chatting with folks very close to distressed-debt vulture funds, the consensus is that the weaker of the major homebuilders, Tousa Inc. (TOA), Standard Pacific (SPF), Beazer Homes (BZH), and perhaps even Hovnanian (HOV), would be better off filing for bankruptcy sooner than later; the theory being that there is no way out for them anyway, and at least right now they have enough assets left to effectively reorganize, and the economy is not in recession (yet). If they wait until things really turn ugly fresh capital will be much more expensive.

  • With respect to the last point however, one daunting question is how many multiples of the bonds’ face values are the outstanding CDS against such debts? And where is that time bomb hidden?

  • Corporate bond watchers and equity players are having a heated debate as to whether the recovery in the debt markets of the last couple weeks will set off another wave of M&A, LBO’s, and buybacks. We are already seeing the buybacks, and strategic M&A. In my humble opinion, and based on anecdotal conversations with folks at major PE groups, LBO’s are done and they are not coming back (corporates traders disagree). Debt fueled buybacks have been as consistently successful as flipping a coin: just look at Intel (INTC), Dean Foods (DF), Amgen (AMGN), St. Jude Medical (STJ), not to mention a bunch of the homebuilders. That leaves strategic M&A, where premiums are not likely to be nearly as fat as they were in LBO’s.

  • The last time the Dollar Index (DXY) touched current levels it reversed and shot higher within two weeks. This is week two since the break of the 79 level and any semblance of a bounce is still AWOL. I may end up eating my words (wouldn’t be the first . . . or tenth time), but in my opinion the greenback has at most two more weeks to mount a rally or the next move down will start getting tagged as a “currency crisis”. Of course with M3 ramping at 14% in September and gold and oil going relentlessly higher one could argue that the currency crisis is already here.

  • On a slightly more cheery note, if one has to be long something, I continue to think that small regional banks with little mortgage exposure should benefit from the steepening yield-curve. The RKH Holder is a lazy way to play this. Also, not a day goes by that I don’t find an article concerning the lack of bandwidth in the metro networks and at the switching nodes. Away from the ne’er do wells – Alcatel-Lucent (ALU), Nortel (NT), Tellabs (TLAB) – I think there are tremendous opportunities, especially in software rich companies. Favorites include Ciena (CIEN), Infinera (INFN), F5 Networks (FFIV), Akamai (AKAM), and Limelight Networks (LLNW); once the cable guys finally decide how to avoid getting run over by the Bells FTTP deployments, and they start formulating their capital spending (which is inevitably coming), other viable names will be Ceragon Networks (CRNT), Arris (ARRS), Harmonic (HLIT) and BigBand Networks (BBND).

    And always know where the “emergency exit” is!!

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