Showing posts with label Virtual Trading Room. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Virtual Trading Room. Show all posts

Thursday, May 10, 2007

FOMC and The Morning After

FOMC and The Morning AfterSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
From our Virtual Trading Room Transcript
May 10, 2007
about 0549 PDT

Jason_Roney> With expiration next week, the monthly patterns suggest further upside by next friday's open. In fact the SP500 is just 1% from the March 2000 all time high close (1527 in the cash). Given the solid uptrend, there's reason to think we'll hit that level sometime next week. But in the short term, the next few days would seem to offer the bear's best chance for downside. As I'll note in the afternoon discussion, there is often a counter-trend move towards the end of the week prior to expiration week. As well, the market tends to struggle with any follow-through on the day after an FOMC meeting. But a look at the daily patterns suggest an even greater probability of short-term pause.

Jason_Roney> Here's some observations: (1) the SP Futures have 7 consecutive closes above the open price. there have been just 10 occurrences over the last 10 years (in 2007, April 23 and Feb 23 were next day - both closed down) and 7 of those closed below the open; (2) the NDX finished higher for the first 6 days of the calendar month. looking back to 1995, this happened just 3 times before and each time the index finished lower; and finally, (3) the Treasury Bond closed below the prior day's low while the SPX finished above the prior day's high. this happened at the March Meeting and resulted in a flat next day's trade with close below the open.

Jason_Roney> The bottom line is that Thursday's action has a higher probability of finishing below the day's open. The overall trend remains solidly higher into expiration but the next 1-2 days offer more downside than upside risk.

Click here to read the complete transcript of Jason's chat.

Click here to read the Trading the SP Gaps by Jason Roney.

Wednesday, April 4, 2007

Interesting Trades on Globex Last Night

Interesting Trades on Globex Last NightSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
From our Virtual Trading Room Transcript
April 4, 2007
about 0717 PDT

Brad_Sullivan> one thing worth noting
Brad_Sullivan> that happened in the SPminis last NIGHT
Brad_Sullivan> nearly 28,000 contracts traded at 1447.50
Brad_Sullivan> and it was all in a short time period
Brad_Sullivan> with buyers coming in at 1,500 contracts a clip
Brad_Sullivan> and they were immediately pared off
Brad_Sullivan> by a seller
Brad_Sullivan> I have to say that I have never seen anything like that
Brad_Sullivan> it happened around 5:30 pm CDT
Brad_Sullivan> not sure what it means if anything
Brad_Sullivan> but it wreaks of something

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Heard on the CME Floor

Heard on the CME FloorSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
From our Virtual Trading Room Transcript
March 21, 2007
about 1214 PDT

Brad_Sullivan> hearing that LOTS of buystops
Brad_Sullivan> were triggered
Brad_Sullivan> throughout this move
Brad_Sullivan> on the institutional side
Brad_Sullivan> worth remembering
Brad_Sullivan> most RATE CUTS
Brad_Sullivan> are net bearish for the index markets
Brad_Sullivan> 6 months out
Brad_Sullivan> keep a close eye on 810.50 in ER2 M7
Brad_Sullivan> and 1440.50 in SP M7
Brad_Sullivan> if we keep drifting lower

Friday, February 9, 2007

Heard on the Floor

Heard on the FloorSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
From our Virtual Trading Room Transcript
February 9, 2007
about 1136 PST

Brad_Sullivan> hearing from the [CME] floor
Fari_Hamzei > ????
Brad_Sullivan> that BSTEARNS
Brad_Sullivan> HAS SOLD NEARLY 4000
Brad_Sullivan> MAJORS
Cary_Kahn> wow
Brad_Sullivan> FROM 1447 TO CURRENT LEVELS
Cary_Kahn> nice day

Editor's Note: MAJORS is S&P-500 pit-traded big index futures contract.

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