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Showing posts with label
2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe.
Show all posts
Showing posts with label
2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe.
Show all posts
Good morning. Quiet overnight, less than 5 handles of range, volume is around 80K mini’s in each the Dec and Mar contracts. Today I will be using the MAR levels in the report. Light calendar, I’m not expecting much.
2252 (***) Third Target + Resist
2249 (*) Target 2
2246 (**) First Higher Target + Some Resist
2240 (*) Early Pivot
2237 (*) First Lower Target + Small Support
2231 (**) Second Lower Target + Better Support
2228 (***) Pivotal
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. Bond weakness continues. Only place I would buy is 148’00 but I don’t expect that to print today. Instead I’ll look to sell back through 148’24. I also like selling 149’16 with smaller size adding at 149’22, using a 12 tick stop on the average while targeting 24-32 ticks.
149’22 (***) Third Higher Target + Resistance Band Begins
149’16 (**) Second Higher Target + Some Resist
149’04 (*) First Higher Target
148’24 (*) Early Pivot
148’20 (*) First Lower Target
148’11 (**) Second Lower Target + Some Support
148’00 (***) Third Lower Target + Better Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Bond market was trying to build a floor for much of this week but just broke key areas as ECB hitting the wires.
I would not consider buying today (as of 7:00 am). I like fading a rally at the (**) levels. However, given the sensitivity of this market to ECB reaction, I am hesitant to give exact trade ideas.
151’19 (***)
151’09 (**) TGT 3 + Bears Need to Hold
151’00 (*) TGT 2
150’18 (*) First Higher Target + Small Resist
150’06 (**) Pivotal for Control
149’17 (*) TGT 1
149’11 (*) TGT 2 + Small Support
148’30 (*) TGT 3 + Small Support
148’11 (***)
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. A sub 10 handle cash hours range yesterday in the S&P’s on total volume barely hitting 1 million, then overnight a quiet range with volume just at 92K as of 7:23 am cst this morning. The calendar is not exactly quiet but there doesn’t figure to be anything market moving as the trade will likely be to fade the edges of a tight range. Maybe (??) something picks up into the end of the month later this week but just from eyeballing it, the ESZ has traded in a 2.5% range in October which is remarkable given the seasonality as well as calendar (elections, FED etc).
Late September and early October saw resistance between 2150-68 where price is meeting again. I expect for whatever bids to come above 2150 to be in the overnight with these resistance points much more challenging to attack in the day session. It’s gonna be a grind above 2150.
Ps. I’m not including an early pivot with this price action. It’s harder to trade directional and more effective to fade edges as possible.
2168 (***)
2163 (*)
2159 (**) Third Upside Target – Stronger Resist Point
2154 (*) Second Upside Target + Resist Area
2150 (**) First Upside Target + Initial Resistance
2144 (*) First Lower Support + Initial Downside Target
2140 (**) Second Lower Support + Next Target
2135 (**) Third Lower Support
2129 (***)
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. Bears couldn’t convert a tired market into sell momentum, now the Globex buyers come in once more to push the index near the highs. Today, the light calendar continues and volume is low, just over 150K at 7:25 CSt.
Prices to the downside begin with 2162 (**) if bulls can convert this prior resistance to support on a retest then they will have their base for higher prices. Below that 2157 (*) 2153 (*) and 2150 (*) would be next areas to slow down sellers.
Upside prices begin with last weeks 2168 (**) area Globex high which is just above this mornings high. Followed by 2175 (*) and 2178 (**) where I would expect gains to be limited to today.
Yesterday I said the trade would be orderly, I’m not sure if that’s what I mean. I think today will again be orderly and quiet with the best trade likely a buy off the 2162 area. It’s less complicated to fade the ranges day’s like today if they can be identified after the first hour.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. The trend of stronger globex sessions continued overnight, however Friday showed another cash hours net loss for the ESU6 and going into this mornings open, it feels like jump ball between buyers n sellers. The overall trend remains a buyers market, and with the light calendar this week I would think that volume will continue to inch lower as the trade starts to look more and more like summer.
Downside prices begin with 2157 (*) which is my early pivot on the open then 2154 (**) that I believe bulls must defend intraday, below that I see room for the market to travel back to the 2146 (***) spot with that becoming the price marker for the week that bull must defend.
To the upside, 2163 (**) will likely offer some intraday resistance followed by 2167 (**) then 2171 (*) where I would expect for price to achieve its highest potential on the day.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. Overnight, Globex failed to make any real noise on volume hitting 200K at 7:00 am CST. This week Globex has seen gains of +37.5 handles compared to cash hours that has seen a loss of -.75 handles. With the overnight breaking the higher trend and trading flat, I would expect for today to have the best chance of the week to actually close negative by more than a handle or two given some potential end of week profit taking and possible mid month rebalancing. Expiration Friday’s tend to be relatively strong however in July they are basically flat.
Having said this, I am not necessarily anticipating a down day but giving it best odds of the week. It looks like another quiet 10-12 handle cash range unless this mornings economic numbers cause any unforseen noise.
Levels to the downside are 2153 (*) early pivot then 2155 (*) initial support followed by 2151 (*) then 2146 (**) which I would expect to be a good buy opportunity today.
Higher levels are 2160 (*), if that level breaks early the initial target would be the 2168 high followed by 2171 (*) and 2176 (*).
I may give the opening range a look today but overall I am unbiased and want to be on the side of the opening print, long above, short below with the exception of a possible early morning low that I’d be willing to buy.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. Volume is not slowing down as much as I anticipated with yesterday’s 1.7 million traded mini’s but price certainly is slowing as it feels that it is winding up tight.
Last two days had similar price action, buying the open paid very small while buy the early pullback paid the daily range. With Globex volume slowing down (157K this morning going into 6:45 am CST) I am becoming less optimistic about buying opens except on smaller size but will try to continue to buy an early low.
At some point this week, I expect an early low to fail to hold but until it does I have to keep trading the trend, after all is it Jul Expiration week which tends to have positive stats. I am also thinking that the upside is feeling limited and I have become willing to find a spot or two above to fade this week on smaller size as I would think out of three remaining days that there will be one of each higher/lower/flat closes but I cannot say in which particular order.
Downside prices: 2145 (*) early downside risk marker/pivot followed by 2141 (*) below that I’ll watch yesterday’s RTH low at 2138 (*) then 2134 (**) and 2130 (**).
To the upside: 2147 (*) is a higher risk marker/ early pivot then 2149-50 (*) area which is yesterday’s high as well as my weekly risk marker referred to all week, then 2155 (*) which would be first target followed by 2160 (**) where I would expect gains today to be capped.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. While risk/reward looks favorable for some 90+ dated puts on the equity index futures, the nearer term looks less inviting. Sure, most indicators reflect an oversold market, however on a micro basis, I am not interested in fighting this tape. Thus far, this summer has not seen a real volume slow down chop and now with Brexit out of the way the next 4-6 weeks could begin to slow down on a relative basis.
If it does, then shorting as a conviction will become increasingly difficult. Of course, with earnings season it’s possible that there could be some large volume down days that we must pay attention to from a less micro point of view but for the time being I’ll be limiting my short ideas to only accomodate low volume, range bound type trading days.
Levels I am watching lower are 2023 (*) Euro session Globex low and the overnight low of 2020 (*) the the 2016 (**) area from Friday’s midday low, which presents an appealing buy area 17 handles off the Globex high and then 2107 (***) that bulls will need to defend to maintain momentum.
Higher levels are 2129 (*) which is my early pivot, I feel very comfortable holding longs above this level as the 2133 (*) Globex high becomes first target followed by 2134 (**) which is the all time high on a continuous basis, next target is 2140 (**) and then the round 2150 (***) which will be an important weekly risk marker, partly due to some Fibonacci extensions that I only use when projecting prices never traded before.
I lean toward buying the open today, and letting it run as high as it will go or buying a pullback. With the economic calendar light and Globex volume closely resembling what recently amounted to range days, then if early volume is below the 20 day average for the first hour, I would consider a small short around 10-15 handles above the open if it matches close enough to my target areas.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC