Comments for Timer Digest as of Friday, August 1, 2008
Fari Hamzei
With the non-event July Non-Farm-Payroll behind us (except Jobless Rate spiking to 5.7%), the worry is now on GM, MER & C. If you do the math, GM has about 60-day cash on hand to pay its bills. That is awfully tight for a company with $180Bils in Revs. CDO write-downs for MER will force another round of write-downs for C and other major large international banks (22 cents on a Dollar sale by MER vs 50 cents on a Dollar held on books by C, and alike). Vikram Pandit, one of the best and brightest on Wall Street, has an uphill battle ahead of him in the next few quarters. The Credit Bears continue to Rule this Market.
Technically, the market structure has not changed. Look at NDX for month of July. It went completely sideways. The TechLand guidances have been very perturbing to many investors, small and large. The only bright spot seems to be the BioTechs (see BBH components).
Bottom Line: We expect more or less sideways action during the remaining dogs days of the Summer. Come Labor Day and the final push for the Presidential Elections, we should see some follow thru in the Equity Markets. Direction is unknown at this point.
