Showing posts with label Humphrey Hawkins Report. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Humphrey Hawkins Report. Show all posts

Friday, February 16, 2007

Equity Index Update

Equity Index UpdateSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Brad Sullivan
February 16, 2007

The index markets traded in a light volume narrow range as Dr. Bernanke finished his testimony on Capitol Hill. The SPH7 contract produced a range of 0.4% for the entire session as players held their bids from Wednesday’s sharp advance.

This morning the indices are marked slightly lower on news that MSFT’s Vista software projections are a bit too optimistic. After trading through yesterday’s low in the SPH7 contract, buyers bid the pre-market higher on a rumor that AMR would be taken private in a deal led by GS. The morning’s economic data was right in line on the PPI with a headline reading of -0.6% and a core reading of +0.2%. Housing Starts came in a bit weaker than anticipated. Since that news, the indices have lost their slight bid and now rest around -1.00 pre-open.

We are focusing on an early close in the treasury market, option expiration in the equity markets and a pretty aggressive back and forth trade in the dollar. The Yen carry trade and its potential unwinding is in the back of everybody’s mind. However, I still hold that only a move below 115 in the Yen/Dollar would get the carriers frightened. And if that were to happen, it would be a short term detriment to the equity markets.

Keep a close eye on the “normal” expiration trade, which consists of a sharp mark higher just prior to and through the first minute of the open. Afterwards, look for a break around -0.3% in the SP before sideways action hits.

Thursday, February 15, 2007

Equity Index Update

Equity Index UpdateSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Brad Sullivan
February 15, 2007

The index markets caught a strong bid on the heels of Fed Chair Bernanke’s testimony on Capitol Hill. Dr. Bernanke gave a rather stunning assessment of the current domestic economy as he came across quite “dovish” versus his global counterparts (Trichet anyone?) on the future direction of interest rates, inflation and employment. On the inflation front …“while we have not had much new information, the recent readings on inflation are encouraging.” Perhaps his key catch phrase was “sustainable and not overheated” when discussing the current economic situation --- Golidlocks is alive.

The index markets did not wait for another utterance from the esteemed Fed Chair as buyers took in 95,000 SP mini contracts from 9:00 to 9:05 cst. An aggressive stance to be certain, and when the dust had cleared new trading highs for the move were established in both the SPX and DJIA. Interestingly, the Russell 2000 felt the brunt of rotational selling and finished the session with slight gains. This highlights the internal strength of the current marketplace. The Russell 2000 broke to new highs after nearly two months of a 3% trading range…in doing so the index rallied around 2.5% from its previous closing high. The SPX remains about -5% below its all-time highs established in the spring of 2000 and retested later that fall. Could we be in a position where the small and mid-cap indices mark time while the SPX makes a run at 1515?

Today is chalk full of data for the markets…and so far it has been generally favorable to “goldilocks.” The Philly Fed data at 11:00 cst always smacks of lunchtime desperation trading, so be cautious.

Disclaimer and Terms of Service

© Copyright 1998-2023, Hamzei Analytics, LLC. Hamzei Financial Network is published by Hamzei Analytics, LLC, Naples, FL 34112, Admin@HamzeiAnalytics.com (310) 306-1200. The information herein was obtained from sources which Hamzei Analytics, LLC believes are reliable, but we can not and do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Hamzei Analytics, LLC or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities or commodities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Neither Hamzei Analytics, LLC nor its principals intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security or commodity. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security or commodity based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment or trading advice. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or conclusion on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Always consult your financial adviser(s) before making any investment or trading decisions.