Showing posts with label Market Timing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Market Timing. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Monday, May 27, 2013
WEEKLY Timer Chart with a special note
Notice in the longer perspective, the WEEKLY Timer Chart shows the UP move is still in tact. What we saw Wednesday and Thursday, in a rear-view mirror, could be nothing more than a bump till the WEEKLY sigma levels are breached.
Here is a short note from a loyal HA subscriber who is a money manager in Boston with over 40 years in the security markets. Over the years, I have come to value his uncanny prospective. His note was sent to me in response to a talking head's column on MarketWatch, trying to justify a call for a market crash in August. I thought it would be wise to share it in entirety:
"Frankly, another talking head
trying to get attention.
QE is only part of the market
move. Confidence, energy independence, knowledge economy, return of
manufacturing to the US, rise of middle class in China, reduction in China’s
wage differentials, reduction in US military expenses abroad, RE appreciation
and demise of prop desks.
Fact is, there are damn few
sellers ex algo’s."
Sunday, January 27, 2013
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Blending Fundamental Analysis & Technical Analysis with Hedge Fund Manager Jeffrey Spotts
(video clip from Jeffrey Spotts' 9/14/11 Webinar)
Hedge Fund Manager Jeffrey Spotts shares how he started on Wall Street and some of his influences for his investment style. Today, he continues managing with a blend of fundamental analysis using William O'Neil's methods and technical analysis using DeMark indicators.
In this excerpt, Jeffrey Spotts also shows examples of analyzing the foreign markets using DeMark on a longer term Quarterly time frame and some insights into how he does it.
Follow Jeffrey Spotts on Twitter: http://twitter.com/spottsontrends
Website: http://spottsontrends.com
Download this full webinar: http://hamzeianalytics.com/educational_webinars.asp
Title:
Hedge Manager Jeffrey Spotts speaks on specific equities, US stock market, European banks and the Treasury market.
Date:
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Time:
5:00 PM - 6:00 PM CDT
About Jeffrey Spotts
Following his 12-year tenure at Merrill Lynch Investment Managers, Mr. Jeff Spotts launched his first successful fund in 2001. His goal is to generate significant absolute returns in any market. His method includes a combination of analyzing the ”sponsorship trend”, relative strength position, and fundamental qualities of each company. Influenced by William O’Neil and Tom Demark, Mr. Spotts understands that price action is the most telling factor in the market, and that good timing can be achieved through a confluence of indications.
His audited track record since 1998 has produced a gross return of 1,980%, with no down calendar years, or monthly drawdowns greater than 11%.
Mr. Spotts regularly appears on FoxBusiness, Bloomberg TV and CNBC, with commentary on stock ideas and commodity trends.
In this webinar, Hedge Fund Manager, Jeffrey Spotts, speaking on specific equities, US stock market, European banks and the Treasury market. Mr. Spotts employs a combination of Demark and O’Neil-type analysis, in a manual-trading style.
Thursday, September 22, 2011
DeMark Indicators and Gold, Dollar, Bonds with Hedge Fund Manager Jeffrey Spotts
(Video Clip from Jeffrey Spotts' 9/14/11 Webinar)
Hedge Fund manager Jeffrey Spotts analyzes Gold, the Dollar, and bonds with a combination of DeMark analysis and relationships between these markets.
Follow Jeffrey Spotts on Twitter: http://twitter.com/spottsontrends
Website: http://spottsontrends.com
Download this full webinar: http://hamzeianalytics.com/educational_webinars.asp
Title:
Hedge Manager Jeffrey Spotts speaks on specific equities, US stock market, European banks and the Treasury market.
Date:
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Time:
5:00 PM - 6:00 PM CDT
About Jeffrey Spotts
Following his 12-year tenure at Merrill Lynch Investment Managers, Mr. Jeff Spotts launched his first successful fund in 2001. His goal is to generate significant absolute returns in any market. His method includes a combination of analyzing the "sponsorship trend", relative strength position, and fundamental qualities of each company. Influenced by William O'Neil and Tom Demark, Mr. Spotts understands that price action is the most telling factor in the market, and that good timing can be achieved through a confluence of indications.
His audited track record since 1998 has produced a gross return of 1,980%, with no down calendar years, or monthly drawdowns greater than 11%.
Mr. Spotts regularly appears on FoxBusiness, Bloomberg TV and CNBC, with commentary on stock ideas and commodity trends.
In this webinar, Hedge Fund Manager, Jeffrey Spotts, speaking on specific equities, US stock market, European banks and the Treasury market. Mr. Spotts employs a combination of Demark and O'Neil-type analysis, in a manual-trading style.
Hamzei Analytics is in its twelfth year of operations and serves both the professional and institutional traders, while providing custom proprietary analytics to a select group of hedge fund managers.
Anayzing Former Leadership Stocks with Hedge Fund Manager Jeffrey Spotts
(Video clip from Jeffrey Spotts' 9/14/11 Webinar)
See how hedge fund manager Jeffrey Spotts analyzes former and current leadership stocks like Apple using a combination of DeMark analysis, portfolio manager insight, and years of Wall Street experience.
Follow Jeffrey Spotts on Twitter: http://twitter.com/spottsontrends
Website: http://spottsontrends.com
Download this full webinar: http://hamzeianalytics.com/educational_webinars.asp
Title:
Hedge Manager Jeffrey Spotts speaks on specific equities, US stock market, European banks and the Treasury market.
Date:
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Time:
5:00 PM - 6:00 PM CDT
About Jeffrey Spotts
Following his 12-year tenure at Merrill Lynch Investment Managers, Mr. Jeff Spotts launched his first successful fund in 2001. His goal is to generate significant absolute returns in any market. His method includes a combination of analyzing the ”sponsorship trend”, relative strength position, and fundamental qualities of each company. Influenced by William O’Neil and Tom Demark, Mr. Spotts understands that price action is the most telling factor in the market, and that good timing can be achieved through a confluence of indications.
His audited track record since 1998 has produced a gross return of 1,980%, with no down calendar years, or monthly drawdowns greater than 11%.
Mr. Spotts regularly appears on FoxBusiness, Bloomberg TV and CNBC, with commentary on stock ideas and commodity trends.
In this webinar, Hedge Fund Manager, Jeffrey Spotts, speaking on specific equities, US stock market, European banks and the Treasury market. Mr. Spotts employs a combination of Demark and O’Neil-type analysis, in a manual-trading style.
Sunday, February 7, 2010
Market Timing Charts Revisited -- as of Friday Close, February 5th, 2010
Fari Hamzei
I had one of the greatest trading weeks in a while. IMHO, more than once, I got very lucky. These charts & comments were posted earlier today on our Open Twitter Feed ( http://twitter.com/hamzeianalytics ).
Let's start with our Timer Chart.
Above is Vol of the Vols Chart with an intraday spike of VXO to +3sigma and VXN to +2sigma. It was nothing out of ordinary, when we take into account the intraday volatility and range of the preceding few sessions and then Friday being Jan NFP (historically a high risk/high reward trading day).
Our coveted SP1_MoMo Chart: when we look carefully, we see a weak bullish divergence here between MoMo vs SP1, further vouching for a small dead cat bounce here.
% of SPX Components above their respective 200 Day MAs in the chart above is sinking fast. IMHO, for now, the PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE is **DOWN**.
See you all in the morning - bright and early -- Go Saints Go !!
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Market Timing Charts Revisited -- as of Friday Close, January 29th, 2010
Fari Hamzei
Here is our Timer Chart with NYSE McClellan Oscillator closing the week at -286, 7thday in the row below the negative 150 oversold threshold. We keep on reminding ourselves that a short/term bounce, albeit a dead cat bounce, should be near. Notice NASDAQ Volume MO is also pretty nasty -- many names being punished despite of good [/quality] earnings. Yet we have not seen a volume spike. Even with a dead cat bounce, the selling should resume till we see capitulation. Next stop for SPX should be its 200-bar moving average (which is a fast moving target here). IOHO, maybe around 1020. SELL THE RALLIES.
As far as vols are concerned, the ROC of Vols have slowed down but now lining up into a clean and rising +1 to +2 channel upward channels.
The % of SPX components over their respective 200 bar MovAvg chart needs no explanation. KIDs are running for the hills. Hearing IPO windows tightening up, private equity and VCs boyz are getting a bit nervous. It is still early.
Our coveted SP1 MoMo Indicators getting a real Royal Flush. Long Term [Modified] Breadth (SP1) looks worse than it did at October lows, while Short Term [Modified] Breadth (MoMo) does not. This tells us a strong push down, after a dead cat bounce (should we be lucky to witness it), is a must somewhere here. Next big news day, is this coming Friday Feb 5th (Jan Non-Farm Payroll at 0730 CT), could well turn out to be the Mother of All NFPs. Small accounts should step aside and stay on sidelines.
Bottom Line: Washington Policy Makers are dueling it out on weekend news programs. We were very happy to see Dr. Ben Bernanke finally was confirmed to serve another term at The Temple. (This is a great read http://bit.ly/ErrJ0 ).
Both intraday and long term Vols are rising and we are seeing some trending days. This is day traders paradise. We are in heavens. Brokers and Sausage Makers are not so lucky.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Tactical Market Timing as of Close of Friday, January 22, 2010
Fari Hamzei
We went thru a tumultuous week of corporate earnings, political, financial and geopolitical surprises, some with dire unintended consequences.
Those of you who attended my last market timing webinar held on Monday January 18th(http://hamzeianalytics.com/Educational_Webinars.asp), should remember my dire warnings. Our charts had a series of bearish divergence setups. Brad Sullivan's comments were also spot on. Now let's go thru our proprietary charts:
Our Timer Chart shows a shallow rise, and not a hard spike, in Down to Up Volume Ratio. This is a mood change IMHO. SPX was at MR1 Level (Monthly Resistance One) on Friday OX (Jan 15). Last three trading sessions, nastiest since prior March 9th lows, while producing a slightly higher volumes, pushed SPX down to MS1 Level (Monthly Support One). Our CI Indicator turned south sharply. No index was spared.
Percent of SPX components above their 200 day Mov Avg reversed hard, breaking their 20 and 50 MAs. Notice the divergence with price around the 95% Level. This is NOT good.
Our coveted SP1 Indicator broke its rising trendline as SPX went thru its -2 sigma band and its MoMo brethren reached a short-term oversold condition.
Bottom-Line: We should be nearing a short-term oversold condition culminating in a dead-cat bounce. Tape feels HEAVY. What is next could be very nasty for our fragile jobless recovery. Not sure PPT can do anything about this one.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
SIGNIFICANT INFLECTION POINT MAY BE AT HAND
Jeffrey Spotts, CMT
In our view, several markets, sectors, leadership groups and commodities are at an important turning point. Although we have been a bit early in this analysis, there are many opportunities for positioning in excellent risk/reward setups. Our view is that at least a weekly 4th wave pullback is in the making, allowing for a good long entry later this year. However, this condition may not present itself for several weeks, even months.
European markets have daily and weekly sell signals, perfectly set into TD PROP MOMENTUM levels:
UKX (FTSE Index) weekly repelled from weekly risk and TDST levels, with price flip (new “1” count down)
DAX index into weekly sequential 13 count with new “1” count (price flip)
CAC index into same weekly risk level and new count down
Asia weaker. The HSI and SHCOMP have broken down, with confirmed tops. Please note that Chinese markets have not made a higher high since November, unlike their European counterparts. Interestin article in Bloomberg whereby Chanos is being mocked for his newly positioned shorts in Chinese markets. Perhaps this is anectodal, complacent sentiment.
HIS weekly with 13 sell signal and close below previous 13 weeks of trading.
SHCOMP with weekly 13 sell signal, lower high, and price flip
Many leadership stocks in major markets have sell signals, adding to the quality of the market calls.
Apple Computer (AAPL) has rare monthly 13 sequential AND combo sell readings
Financial stocks seem to be making a parallel with the history of the Technology sector. Technology went through its bubble in 2000, after which the sector had a decent rally, and subsequent, long-term sell off, until bottoming this past low. Financials look to be finished with its rally, and is not poised to make further lows. Our focus is on the credit card sector, where politics, limits and regulation are coming.
American Express (AXP) weekly 13 combo sell and price flip
Commodity-related equities have undoubtably been the leadership in global equities over the past year. This group is highly correlllated to emerging markets. There seems to be room for significant pullbacks in these areas.
The Dow Jones US Basic Materials index (DJUSBM) with daily sell signals at high.
As stated, our view is that many markets are poised for a significant pullback, with at least a several week duration. Sentiment surely supports this with recent AAII and other investor polls.
Monday, January 4, 2010
Market Timing Webinar with Fari Hamzei
Our Sunday night's Market Timing Webinar is now posted here:
http://hamzeianalytics.com/Educational_Webinars.asp
Fari now has 10,600+ Followers on Twitter and Follows 22 Friends
http://twitter.com/HamzeiAnalytics
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
US Equity Markets at Crossroads -- A Quick Review
Fari Hamzei
My tonight's webinar is poted here:
https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/Educational_Webinars.asp
Thursday, October 29, 2009
How Precision Market Timing can help you to nail a High Gamma Trade
Fari Hamzei
If you saw my Twitter posts starting last Friday after the Close, then my Market Timing Commentary here on Monday Night and then culminating on Wednesday evening with more Twitter Updates, starting about 528 pm Central Time, you knew why I was HEAVY LONG SP-500 Futures (entry 1039) and small amount LONG Nasdaq-100 Futures (entry 1678), holding overnight and into Q3 GDP numbers this morning:
1) McCellan Osc readings for NYSE and NAZZ Markets
2) Down to Up Volume Ratio Spikes
3) Sigma Channels Reading for SPX, NDX, RUT and DJ Trans Indices
4) Put/Call Ratios (dollar weighted) for key High Beta Big Cap stocks
5) Vol of the Vols --- Sigma Channels readings for VXO and VXN
6) Intraday TICK Exhaustion Analysis -- on-the-run
This resulted in gain of 9.5 handles per ES contract on avg -- and max was 11 handles per contract. As you can tell from time & sales data, NQs were also very profitable.
Of course we traded post GDP release -- last long trade taken was exited at 2:57 pm CDT today at 1062 (per our HFT Tweeter Feed).
It was a glorious day and a great week so far. Hope you all enjoyed it. Here are our Timer and Vols Charts as of tonight's Close. Remember, tomorrow is another day and another battle. Go get some rest.
Go YANKEES Go !!
Monday, October 26, 2009
Market Commentary as of Monday, October 26, 2009 Close
Fari Hamzei
Timer Chart shows us the McClellan Oscillators (MOs) have entered into short-term oversold condition. For NYSE the Advance/Decline Issues MO is at -212, and for for NASDAQ, it is at -161. Down Volume to Up Volume Ratio for today was at 7.1 to 1. While it was not outlandish, we are moving closer towards a short-term (dead-cat ??) bounce here. I wrote about this process on Twitter after the close last Friday.
A side note: While we came in long ES into the RTH today, we ended up shorting the SP500 Futures in rougly 1088 area towards the end of the first hour, which we rode down (with great pleasure) into lows of the day, within the next two hours.
But -- all our subsequent trades today were on the long side because we felt buyers would step in somewhere in here. Given how the market internals closed today, the chance of a bounce should be good in the next day or two.
Here is another look with only SPX data -- that is the above MOs are for SP500 components only -- both for Advance / Decline Issues MO and Up / Down Volumes MO. This is a new chart for us -- datawise -- thus we would refrain making any far reaching comments till we are more comfortable with its behaviour.
What I would keep an eye on is the sigma channels for the major vol indices. While VXN hit our target of -2 sigma and then market sold off, the reversal to the upside should come in the +2 sigma area which would translate to 27 for VXO and 29 for VXN.
Trend Change is always very tough to trade. Best advise is too keep your bet size very small and monitor the market internals very carefully throughout the trading day.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Friday, August 7, 2009
SP1 MoMo Chart -- Market Timing
Our coveted SP1-MoMo chart is featured today on Chart Junkie by @wallCS (on Twitter): http://wallstcheatsheet.com/?p=1165
Best to review before the OPEN.
Follow us on Twitter by clicking here: http://twitter.com/HamzeiAnalytics
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Market Timing Commentary as of Thursday, July 23, 2009
Fari Hamzei
Please Note: These charts are from the end of regular trading hours on Thursday, July 23, 2009.
MSFT, AMZN, AXP, COF, BRCM and JNPR all reported after the 4 pm NYC close today and they all missed, some by little, and MSFT & AXP, by not so little. All were taken to the woodshed for some much-neglected discipline. They are down, some heavy, in the after hours trading. We live and trade in a very frothy world, the management teams, were repeatedly reminded.
And for Reg. FD purposes, our Phoenix Traders went long JNPR Aug A-T-M Puts yesterday at about 2pm EDT. And, today at about 212 pm EDT, we doubled that position, very near the market high. After JNPR reported a double digit fall in revenues, a slide in margins and gave a disappointing outlook, I was asked on Twitter, why AAPL long calls on Tuesday and JNPR long puts today? My answer was simple: trading is all about market intel [something you won't find on CNBC]. We both laughed it out loud.
Let's go thru some charts. First my favorite, Sp1-MoMo chart. "Let's get really overbought" was name of the game today. After all, the venerable money manager Bill Miller of Legg Mason, wrote last night "the worst has passed" and "bargains abound in the US stock market" to his Legg Mason Value Trust fund.
NYSE Advance/Decline Line closed +2088 and SP1 back again above +2 sigma with MoMo at +45. Remember, as I mentioned in the last Friday video, posted further below, we could stay here and see these types of high readings both in relative (SP1) and absolute (MoM0) terms for some time. No guarantee we will just fall off the cliff here just because we are overbought. As always, I look for the requisite "catalyst" in geopolitics, Fed, White House, Wall Street, Pentagon, Big Oil, etc etc.
In like fashion, DJ Trans moved some 4.5 sigmas: (Economy going forward will do well -- what commercial real estate problems, consumer credit, forget about it -- Washington will save 'em too -- and please, quit complaining about retail vacancy rates on Miracle Mile). And, RUT (risk-loving is back, its Index Futures at one point were up almost 4% today) and NAZZ Composite (closing higher 13-days in a row) all screamed in unison: Xmas is here early. Yeah, for sure !!
But not our beloved Vols. There were smarter of the bunch, and they stopped dropping in face of rapid ascend rate in the equities. VXN rode down the -2 sigma line, three days in a row last week, and as expected (as in last Friday video), it pulled backup, albeit, very very slowly until today. Both VXO & VXN closed higher today, as smart money started to buy some puts for downside protection. And Market Makers smelled it and adjusted those bid/asks, albeit by rapid-fire algo trades.One fund rolled UP its SPY August downside protection at 92 strike into December 95 strike, for some 72,000,000 shares of SPY (S&P-500 ETF) it holds. Yes, 720K put contracts on SPY, a "jaw dropper," was one trade today that cleared at the ISE in NYC.
Last but not the least, here is our Timer Chart. With NYSE McClellan Oscillator (MO) at +226 and NAZZ at +144, with CI Indicators lit RED, SPX at +2 sigma, NDX above +2 sigma, we are short-term overbought again. Just look at Up/Down MO for NAZZ, it is almost +210. With Volume, being a coincident indicator, we should brace for a pullback. Now with MSFT latest report, the TechLand recovery roadmap got a lot fuzzier. And with AXP and COF results showing consumer finances remaining in stress, the retail spending should remain below trend.
Now I said the same thing some eight weeks ago and nothing happened. We simply traded in a range. This time, it may be different. Tomorrow could be for the history books as the spin meisters will try to put a fresh new lipstick on this pit bull.
A Note of Thanks: We are immensely indebted to our learned colleague, Steven Sears, the Editor of The Striking Price Column at Barron's for his valuable & speedy research regarding the SPY trade today.
A Note of Thanks: We are immensely indebted to our learned colleague, Steven Sears, the Editor of The Striking Price Column at Barron's for his valuable & speedy research regarding the SPY trade today.
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Market Commentary as of Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Fari Hamzei
We still stand by our May 22nd intermediate bias change, to the short side, which was again re-iterated on our June 12th blogpost here.
What is clear now is the very short-term over-sold condition we are in. The chance of short-term rebound (a dead cat bounce) has increased as we enter the Q2 Earnings Season.
This is evidenced by our MoMo reading (first chart) of below -30 as denoted by the green horizontal line and VXO trading near +3 sigma today (second chart).
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