March 7, 2013 HFT Bonds and Notes commentary with @GCavaligos

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HFT Bonds with Daily video from Bonds Strategist, George Cavaligos. Take a look at what we do here: http://tinyurl.com/cxr5s6b

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March 6th 2013 HFT Bonds & Notes Commentary with @GCavaligos

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March 4, 2013 HFT Bonds & Notes commentary with @GCavaligos

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Market Timing Charts Revisited -- as of Friday Close, February 5th, 2010

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Fari Hamzei

I had one of the greatest trading weeks in a while.  IMHO, more than once, I got very lucky.  These charts & comments were posted earlier today on our Open Twitter Feed ( http://twitter.com/hamzeianalytics ).

Let's start with our Timer Chart.

Notice the "Hammer" candlesticks with very low McClellan Oscillators readings after down/up volume ratio spike day (Thursday).  And both CIs are GREEN with NAZZ's having a flat slope -- most likely Monday will be an UP day IMHO.  Also worth noting is that SPX bounced off of MS1 (monthly support one) while trading below -2 sigma during Friday RTH.

Above is Vol of the Vols Chart with an intraday spike of VXO to +3sigma and VXN to +2sigma.  It was nothing out of ordinary, when we take into account the intraday volatility and range of the preceding few sessions and then Friday being Jan NFP (historically a high risk/high reward trading day).

Our coveted SP1_MoMo Chart: when we look carefully, we see a weak bullish divergence here between MoMo vs SP1, further vouching for a small dead cat bounce here.

% of SPX Components above their respective 200 Day MAs in the chart above is sinking fast. IMHO, for now, the PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE is **DOWN**.

See you all in the morning - bright and early -- Go Saints Go !! 

HOTS Weekly Options Commentary

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Peter Stolcers

This week the market fell into a very tight 30 point trading range on the S&P 500. In the absence of news, light directionless trading set in. The economic releases came in slightly better than expected, but everyone knows they are hindsight. It is the future the Fed is concerned about.

This same scenario will unfold next week during the first four days. The economic releases are very light and they include the ISM numbers, building permits and auto sales. PEP, WAG and RIMM are the only earnings worth mention.





The fireworks will let loose on Friday with the release of the Unemployment Report. The weak number last month paved the way for the Fed to lower interest rates. If there is an increase in unemployment, the market will have a negative reaction. On the other hand, solid employment could prove that last month’s decline was an aberration. If this unfolds, the market will make a run at the all-time high.

I still suspect that the market is headed higher. Global growth is fueling our economy and housing only makes up 5% of our GDP. Earnings are right around the corner and we have not had an earnings warning outside of the home building sector. BSC and LEH were supposedly “exposed” to sub prime and both posted decent results. As companies release earnings, their guidance for next quarter will have a tremendous influence on the market.

This market can swing either way. While we wait, we will stay balanced.

Editor's Note: To take advantage of our high performance Options Trading Service (HOTS), click here.

Timer Digest Market Commentary

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Fari Hamzei

Once you study our Timer and Vol Index Charts, two issues are worth noting:

First our Timer Chart shows (mentioned here last Friday) that we are short-term overbought and due for a pause -- which BLS delivered today with the first negative NFP data in 4 years (and a massive revision to July NFP data).


Secondly, our Vol Indices chart sets the volatility retest targets both in shape and intensity (when overlaid with Sigma Channels).



Given that the seasonality data calls for September being a negative month, dollar being at 15-year low and CFC announcing a 20% layoff after the close today, we hope you have been SHORT this market and getting ready to lower your buy stop.


Just remember: the second mouse gets the cheese !!

HOTS Weekly Options Commentary

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Peter Stolcers
February 4, 2007

Overall, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters… some tentative signs of stabilization have appeared in the housing market… readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months, and inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time… however, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain inflation pressures." These were the Fed’s comments. Last week, a 3.5% GDP growth rate was much stronger than the 2% recorded in the third quarter, and it handily beat the 3% expected by economists. The jobs number on Friday was in line and average hourly earnings increased by less than expected. These economic highlights pushed the Dow Industrial and Dow Transport averages to new historic highs. Monday, the ISM is released and it is the biggest number in a “light” week. On the earnings front, the news was good last week and cyclical stocks rallied on strong numbers. New earnings releases are starting to tail off and here are a few highlights for next week: HUM, ISE, DVN, AET, BRCM, WLT, and PNRA. From a technical standpoint, the SPY made a new multi-year high and it is grinding higher. Tech stocks are not participating, but that can change quickly. A strong economy and solid earnings will keep a bid to this market. It may not run higher, but at very least, it will maintain this level until something changes.

GO CHICAGO BEARS!