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Showing posts with label
#PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe.
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Showing posts with label
#PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe.
Show all posts
Good morning everyone and Happy New Year! Overnight the trends continue, equity futures, crude and dollar higher, meanwhile bonds and gold lower. Volume has been low around 150K, the calendar is busy this week. Shouldn’t take too long to know how for real this rally is. At the moment, my only bias in the S&P’s is to be patient.
2273 (***)
2268 (***) Third Higher Target + Resistance
2261 (*) Second Higher Target
2255 (*) First Higher Target
2250 (*) Early Pivot
2244 (*) First Lower Target + Support
2240 (**) Second Lower Target + Bulls Better Hold
2228 (***) Third Lower Target + Some Support
2212 (***) Weekly Bear Objective
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Impressive rally in crude oil overnight. I can’t find anywhere to sell with forthought, and I have no conviction to step in front of this trend, therefore looking to buy a dip. I like buying the levels below today, risking .20 to make $1.00
$54.50 (*) Support
$54.00 (**) Support
$53.50 (***) Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
No surprise that the Treasury market resumes it’s down course as the dollar and equities rally, and gold trades in the red. The week offers a decent calendar, and the modest rally in bonds over the last few sessions maybe enough to give it fuel to new lows.
My bias is clear to sell rallies at this point. I like selling 149’24, risking 8 ticks to make 32 ticks, or selling 150’10 risking 8 ticks to make 32. If I cannot grab a rally to sell, I will attempt to sell through the 149’02 level, depending on how the chart sets up. I think its reasonable to target a full handle on any short at this point. Bears should have enough for that, and if not, my bias maybe wrong.
151’14 (***)
150’24 (**) Resistance + Third Higher Target
150’10 (**) Resistance + Second Higher Target
149’24 (*) Resistance + First Higher Target
149’10 (*) Last Print
149’02 (**) Overnight Low, the 149’00 level was pivotal for bulls to hold. I don’t think they can/will on the retest + First Lower Target + Some Support
148’16 (**) Second Lower Target + Some Support
148’02 (***) Third Lower Target + Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. I like selling 150’11, small risking 6 ticks to make 12, and/or buying 149’22 small risking 8 ticks to make 16.
151’14 (***) Third Higher Target + Resistance
150’28 (*) Second Higher Target
150’11 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist
150’02 (*) Early Pivot
149’22 (*) First Lower Target + Support
149’16 (*) Second Lower Target + Small Support
149’04 (*) Third Lower Target + Some Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hello. I like selling $54.20 today risking .20 to make .50 also selling $54.50 risking .20 to make .75. I also like buying $53.40 risking .15 to make .50 and buying $53.05, risking .20 to make .50.
$54.50 (***) Third Higher Target + Best Resist
$54.27 (**) Second Higher Target + Better Resist
$54.04 (*) First Higher Target + Resist
$53.80 (*) Early Pivot
$53.60 (*) First Lower Target + Support
$53.38 (**) Second Lower Target + Support
$53.04 (***) Third Lower Target + Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. Last day of the year can often be wild card, can be quiet all day and rowdy at the end of day, or can be busy all day. Easiest thing is to trade what we see.
2273 (***)
2267 (**) Third Higher Target + Resist
2261 (*) Second Higher Target
2256 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist
2250 (*) Early Pivot
2240 (**) First Lower Target + Support
2232 (**) Second Lower Target + Support
2212 (***) Just for fun
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
I like selling $53.20 risking .20 to make .50, or selling $53.60, risking .20 to make .75 or buying $52.07 smaller, risking .15 to make .35.
$53.60 (***) Third Higher Target + Resist
$53.20 (**) Second Higher Target + Resist
$52.78 (*) First Higher Target + Small Resist
$52.55 (*) Early Pivot
$52.07 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support
$51.82 (*) Second Lower Target
$51.57 (**) Third Lower Target + Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Bond market still trying to lean higher with unimpressive volume during a disinterested pre holiday week. The cash bond market closes at 1:00 pm cst time today.
150’05 (***) Third Higher Target + Resistance
149’27 (*) Second Higher Target
149’18 (*) First Higher Target
149’09 (*) Early Pivot
148’26 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support
148’18 (**) Second Lower Target + More Support
148’10 (*) Third Lower Target + Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
I don’t have an early pivot to set bias today. I like selling $53.00 on a bounce and adding at $53.20, using a .25 stop to earn $1.00. I think buying $52.13 with a .20 stop to make .50 is a fair trade.
$53.40 (***) Third Higher Target + Better Resist
$53.20 (**) Second Higher Target + Good Resist
$53.00 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist
$52.13 (*) First Lower Target
$51.85 (*) Lower Target 2
$51.57 (**) Third Lower Target + Better Support
$51.11 (***) Pivotal
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. Very quiet overnight in terms of range and volume. Today’s calendar is light as Chair Yellen address is not expected to be of market interest. The seasonality and being a Monday suggests that buying early weakness and holding into some upper target areas as a swing trade this week could work.
2273 (***) Pivotal
2268 (**) Third Higher Target + Better Resist
2264 (*) Second Higher Target + Fair Resist
2261 (*) First Higher Target + Small Resist
2256 (*) Early Pivot
2250 (**) First Lower Target + Support
2247 (**) Second Lower Target + Support
2243 (***) Third Lower Target + Bulls Must Hold
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hello. Once again, bonds trying to hold up in a quiet overnight session. This week has a mixture of quiet but also some noticeable economic reports. Bonds have to rally back up to 150’00 at least some point.
I like selling the 148’15 price today, risking 8 ticks to make 16 minimum, if there is momentum lower then I’d attempt for 24 ticks. Or I can buy 147’18, risking 8 ticks to make 24.
149’09 (***) TGT 4 + Resist
`148’28 (*) TGT 3 + Some Resist
148’15 (**) TGT 2 + Fair Resist
148’06 (*) First Higher Target + Small Resist
147’28 (*) Early Pivot
147’21 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support
147’14 (**) Target Two + Better Support
147’04 (***) TGT 3 + Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. Bulls did what they needed, rebuilt a floor at 2250 and is using that to push higher. It’s an expiration Friday with bulls in charge, not out of the cards for a grind up to new highs or at least pushing close to 2270. Going to return to quiet and thin.
2273 (**) Third Target + Resist
2269 (*) Second Target + Some Resist
2264 (*) First Higher Target
2260 (*) Early Pivot
2256 (*) First Lower Target + Small but maybe good enough support
2252 (**) Second Lower Target + Support
2248 (***) Third Lower Target + Bulls Better Show up
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Volume finally moving into the Feb contract with the overnight volume slightly higher than the Jan. So all levels are CLG7 now.
I like buying $51.60, risking .20 to make .50 or selling $52.88, risking .20 to make .50 and selling $53.15, risking .25 to make $1.00
$53.18 (***) TGT 3 + Resist
$52.88 (**) TGT 2 + Resist
$52.55 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist
$52.36 (*) Early Pivot
$51.97 (*) First Lower TGT
$51.58 (**) TGT 2 + Support
$51.10 (***) TGT 3 + Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Return to orderly Treasury future trade yesterday. The 30 year trying to build at least a temporary floor. Over the last few weeks it has been normal to see about three sessions sideways to higher leading to a 2-3 handle bounce and then sellers reinitiate. I think the path of less resistance today, is weakness during the morning at least.
I like being short right now 148’24 as volume comes in at the open with a 8 tick stop looking for the first lower target. I like buying 148’12 small, with the potential of adding at 148’02, risking 10 ticks on the average, while looking for a bounce back to 149’00, or 24-25 ticks.
I like selling 149’16 and adding at 149’24, using a 12 tick stop on the average while looking for 32 ticks.
149’24 (***) Third Target + Best Resist
149’16 (**) Second Target + Better Resist
149’08 (*) First Higher Target + Small Resist
149’00 (*) Early Pivot
148’12 (**) First Lower Target + Some Support
148’02 (***) Second Lower Target + Better Support
147’04 (***)
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning everyone. Very quiet overnight trade preparing for FOMC. The market doesn’t seem to be expecting much of a response today, and I agree. However, markets often times defy expectation.
2290 (***) TGT 4 + Resist
2282 (*) TGT 3
2274 (**) TGT 2 + Resist
2269 (*) First Higher Target + Small Resist
2265 (*) Early Pivot
2260 (*) First Lower Target + Small Support
2255 (*) TGT 2
2249 (**) TGT 3 + Better Support
2240 (**) TGT 4 + Support
2233 (***) Pivotal
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hello. Volume is still in the Jan CL future so I am continuing to use that. Crude seems to be lingering lower to fill the gap from Friday’s close. This market is technically bullish, as well as fundamentally and seasonally bullish (short term, with some variations). Crude could be vulnerable to some excitement today with EIA # and FOMC.
Only place I am looking to buy is $51.50, risking .25 to make $1.00. I like selling $53.10, risking .20 to make .50
$53.40 (***) TGT 5 + Resist
$53.20 (**) TGT 4 + Resist
$53.00 (**) Third Higher TGT + Resist
$52.80 (*) Second TGT + Small Resist
$52.53 (**) First Higher Target + Some Resist + Bears Make their stand here
$52.18 (*) Early Pivot
$51.90 (*) First Lower Target + Small Support
$51.48 (***) Second TGT + Pivotal Support + Bulls can’t lose
Below $51.48 I’m watching round numbers $51.00, $50.50, $50.00 etc
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hello and welcome to FOMC day. I expect a quiet morning trade before the volatile afternoon. It’s difficult (for me) to anticipate the market reaction to this Fed day. I have internal reasons to suspect either a quieter than usual reaction or stronger than usual reaction. My levels today are a little more macro, in the event of a more substantial reaction.
Before noon, I like buying 149’08 risking 8 ticks to make 16 or buying 148’18 risking 8 to make 24. Or selling 150’02 risking 8 to make 16.
*The above ideas are only good pre Fed and assume flat into the meeting *
I believe the stronger levels to be relevant today, but obviously cannot anticipate what I would do having yet to see the reaction to FOMC.
151’14 (***) TGT 4 + Resist
150’29 (***) TGT 3 + Resist
150’12 (**) TGT 2 + Resistance
150’02 (**) First Higher Target + Resistance
149’22 (**) Early Pivot
149’08 (*) First Lower Target + Fair Support
148’18 (**) Lower TGT 2 + Good Support
148’07 (*) Lower TGT 3 + Fair Support
147’10 (***) TGT 4 + Pivotal
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Seems like crude gave bulls a gift yesterday giving them an opportunity to buy in regular session. Now bulls need to make higher lows and higher highs. I like fading the resistance zone, starting small at $53.70 adding small at $53.80 and $53.90. Risking .25 on ave to make .75 on ave. I like buying $52.60 small, risking .20 to make .50.
$54.50 (***) Target 3
$54.20 (*) Target 2
$53.90 (**) Top of Resist Zone
$53.80 (*) First Higher Target
$53.70 (*) Resistance Zone Begins
$53.45 (*) Early Pivot
$53.00 (*) First Lower Target
$52.60 (*) Second Lower TGT + Some Support
$52.15 (**) TGT 3 + Better Support
$51.80 (*) TGT 4
$51.50 (***) TGT 5 + Pivotal Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hello. Light calendar today. Quiet, buy the dip action in the 30 year overnight. Looking at yesterday’s rally and some overnight follow through, I think bonds could continue to see higher into the FOMC decision.
I am willing to buy lower with smaller size. 148’23 and adding at 148’16. Risking 12 ticks on the ave to scale at 16 and 24 tick profits. I like selling the 149’22 price small, adding small at 149’28 and 150’02 (if necessary) risking 10 ticks on the ave to make 24 ticks.
150’02 (***) Target 3 + Good Resist
149’28 (*) Target 2 + Still in Resist Zone
149’22 (***) First Higher Target + Good Resist
149’09 Price as of this writing (just a reference)
148’23 (**) Early Pivot – Bias Long Above + Short Below
148’16 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support
148’08 (*) Lower TGT 2 + Some Support
147’26 (*) Target 3
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Crude recapturing $50 handle yesterday now aiming for higher prices. I like selling the $51.95 price risking .35 to make 1.00, also like selling the $52.20, risking .25 to make 1.00. I like buying the $51.00 handle risking .25 to make .50.
$52.20 (***)
$51.95 (**) Second Higher Target + Resist
$51.55 (*) First Higher Target + Small Resist
$51.20 (*) Early Pivot
$50.95 (**) First Lower Target + Support
$50.70 (*) Second Target
$50.45 (**) Third Target + Support
$50.00 (***)
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC