As I wrote you two days ago (before the close -- see below), both of those events happened today but not first without a sharp sell-off (yesterday), which brings us to this point:
we did observe outside bar reversals on vol indices (VXO and VXN) today... but our proprietary volume and breadth indicators are not looking very terrific here. putting all of this together and noting that the rally from March 17th low had more upward pressure, we read this as a very skeptical market. considering that seasonality wise, the more volatile part of the year is ahead of us and not behind us, the market may be bracing for another shoe to drop in financial/housing/energy markets.
given that next week is August Options Expiry, we need to see more volume before we can press it. we will, but when it's time (IOHO) !!
I have attached our Vol Charts:
From: Fari Hamzei [mailto:Fari@HamzeiAnalytics.com]
Sent: Wednesday, August 06, 2008 1:57 PM
To: Jim Schmidt (Timerdiges@aol.com)
Subject: my comments for Wednesday August 6, 2008
we are about to see our SPX channel breakout confirmation...........with a close above 1292.00, STAY LONG or GET LONGER. Volume is key determinant here.
NDX (and QQQQs) will go up to test their 200-day MovAvg in the coming days.
All the best;
Hamzei Analytics, LLC