Comments on Aussie Dollar by @JimIuorio

Tweet Comments on Aussie Dollar by @JimIuorio

Attached is a daily chart of March Aussie Dollar (ADH3).

Yesterdays move was significant and represents a longer term policy shift by the Australian Central Bank.  Today's retracement appears to be an opportunity to establish short interest.  I like the ADH3  

102.5-102 put spread for an outlay of 16 ticks.  Max loss is 16 ticks or $160 and max gain is 50-16 = 34 ticks or $340.  We will have 4 weeks on this trade as it expires on March 8th.

Jim

Comments on Japanese Yen by @JimIurio

Tweet Comments on Japanese Yen by @JimIurio

Attached is a daily chart of March Japanese Yen.

The move lower has been staggering, dramatic and probably appropriate.  However, moves like this never go on perpetually and the bear market rallies tend to be quick and vicious.  The 15% decline since Nov 9th has convinced me that it is time to take a low risk shot at the upside.  This is a stark deviation from my normal style and not sure I would expect sane people to follow me in.  If I was taking this shot (and i did) I would look at the JYH3 113 calls for 17 ticks...those calls have until March 8th to perform.  17 ticks (or $212.50) is the exposure for 1 JYH3 contract.

Jim

Comments on Aussie Dollar by @JimIuorio

Tweet Comments on Aussie Dollar by @JimIuorio

Attached is a daily chart of March Aussie Dollar (ADH3).

Friday's price action showed a clear rejection of a trend failure. This type of technical analysis flies in the face of tradition and is a clear example of the algo headfake.  At present level (103.95), we would adopt a half bullish bias and change that to full on a settle above 104.41.  We would return to neutral on any trade below 103.46 on downside or a trade of 105.35 on upside. The fundamental argument would be continued Fed stimulus coupled with an improving picture in China.

Jim Iuorio

Update by @JimIuorio for #Euro #Currency #Futures

Tweet Update by @JimIuorio for #Euro #Currency #Futures

Attached is a daily chart of march Euro Currency Futures (ECH3).

We have met our upside objective and would return to neutral at 135.40. Although the fundamental story in the Euro remains interesting with the better than expected information coming out of the    

3-month LTRO results, the chart has reached trend line resistance so i would exit and seek opportunities elsewhere.

Good trading today,

Jim

Euro Currency Futures Update by @JimIuorio

Tweet Euro Currency Futures Update by @JimIuorio

Attached is a 30-day chart of the March Euro Currency Futures.

As said on Thursday, I have a bullish bias in full.  The upside objective is 135.40....a settle below 133.90 will return to neutral. The fundamental argument includes decent numbers from Germany and a higher than expected repayment of LTRO money.   

 

There also appears to be a exodus from the safety of US Treasuries. Although this could be fueled by several factors there is potential for the market to interpret as a clear "risk on" signal putting a tailwind into the Euro trade.

Comments on Australian Dollar by @JimIuorio

Tweet Comments on Australian Dollar by @JimIuorio

Attached is a daily chart of the December Australian dollar.

  

The currency appears to be on the verge of a downside breakout after lower than expected Australian consumer confidence and the World Bank lowering global growth estimates due to expected slow down in China.  If the March Aussie Dollar trades below 104.76 we will adopt a negative bias with an initial downside  objective of 104.23. A settle above yesterday's close of 105.08 would return us to neutral.   

The Canadian Dollar trade that we have had on for some time is nearing key downside level.  A settle below 101.00 in  CDH3 would return us to neutral.

Update on the Canadian Dollar by @JimIuorio

Tweet Update on the Canadian Dollar by @JimIuorio

Attached is a 50-day chart of the Canadian Dollar.

This morning's positive employment data in Canada and mildly positive U.S. data has put a bid back into the currency.   We maintain a long bias with an objective of 101.60 and a stop out level below yesterday's low of 100.62.

Have a great Friday,

Jim

Canadian Dollar Update by @JimIuorio

Tweet Canadian Dollar Update by @JimIuorio

Attached is a daily chart of March Canadian Dollar.

Although we maintain our long bias we would take this opportunity to exit half of position at these levels (101.38).

We are breaking with our initial upside objective because of the gap open and the markets tendency to fill in those gaps.  Also, when the market gives you a gift like this you tend to feel dumb if you don't take some advantage...will come back with a more detailed strategy soon.

 

Happy New Year,

Jim Iuorio

@JimIuorio commenting on Canadian Dollar

Tweet @JimIuorio commenting on Canadian Dollar

Attached is a daily chart of December Canadian Dollar.

We maintain a positive bias as the "risk on" trade has shown no clear signs of reversing. Later in the day, we will hear from the Fed and expectations are for an increase of asset purchases.  This creates a possibility of disappointment.   We would be inclined to cover half of our long position before the Fed release.  For the other half of our position we would set a stop below 100.95 on a closing basis.

Good luck today..