#ES_F #NQ_F & #IWM Bias Update & Levels for Thuesday, July 23, 2015

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Right now all three indexes ESU5/SPY, NQU5/QQQ, and TFU5/IWM have macro lower highs to be Short against, especially in TFU5/IWM which has been a bearish divergence for most of this week other than yesterday.

Today I will be looking to start new swing Short positions in all three indexes if any or all three indexes bounce to +3Sigma or even at center Sigma and I will do so as long as ESU5 holds below 2114s, NQU5 holds below 4635s, or IWM holds below 125.80. Once/if above these mentioned levels I will negate my short-term Short swing bias, and then re-engage at higher mapped out levels depending the daily and 60min Sigma & CI indicators.

Once engaged in the swing index Shorts I will then be looking for ESU5 to breach below 2098s-2094s zone to confirm the Short bias, NQU5 below 4578, and IWM below 123.55 otherwise there will be better chance of more sideways chop and grind before another attempt to make new ATHs.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#FXI Update & Levels for Friday, July 10, 2015

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Yesterday I was in hope #FXI would reach 43.20-43.75 zone to engage in a new swing Short which I would have done so with a tight stop because if above 43.75 I see potential to 45.05-45.55 zone which would be an even better/more ideal Short entry.

#FXI is close to the 43.20-43.75 zone but being a Friday with potential of Greece and/or Chine weekend headline risk I will hold off until next week before engaging in a #FXI trade. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#ES_F Update & Levels for Tuesday, July 7, 2015

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As of now the thin profile and low volume area (LVA) above 2078s is containing ESU5 upside which means there is now very good chance ESU5 is heading to the key 2026s-2020s zone while holding below 2057s/58s this week and definitely while/if holding below 2046s today.

Only a move/hold/close above 2058s will negate lower to 2026s/25s and lower with ease.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Thursday, July 2, 2015

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No change in ESU5 levels, bias, and thoughts as yesterday which was somewhat expected being a short holiday week ahead of NFP. Right now ESU5 is balanced between 2078s & 2060s; until either is breached my bias will remain neutral.

Once/if above 2078s the bulls will then need to get through 2084s-2086s zone in order to have upside with legs and potential to re-test 2098s-2100s zone, and/or once/if below 2062s-2060s zone the bears must first get through 2053s/52s for chance to resume selling below this week’s low at 2046s; if so 2037s-2035s zone will be the first lower target then 2026s/2025s.

This week has been a very nice change for two way day-traders from most weeks this year. Even yesterday which started out very choppy ended up giving a good Short and also a good Long; both were +10 points. My hope is that NFP does not give the 2015 bulls an edge otherwise there will be chance that the fun this week (as a two way day-trader) will be short-lived and next week the market will go right back to the usual slow chop & grind RTH sessions during the entire first half of 2015. Rather see the complete opposite during the 2^nd half of 2015.  

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Wednesday, July 1, 2015

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Finally and very happy seeing good ESU5 two way price action with range and energy so far this week during RTH which is all that matters for traders. Not sure if the rest of the week will be the same with NFP approaching and also being a short holiday week but if the 2^nd half of the year is the exact opposite of the first half everyday does not need to be as good as the past two days.

For today first support for ESU5 is value at 2060s/59s. If holding above value during the RTH session there will be high odds of reaching the key resistance/threshold I have mentioned all week at 2084s-2098s zone once/if above 2077s/78s.

If back in value during RTH the 80% Rule will apply to the downside with potential to reach 2052s-2050s zone. If below value (-2050) the +30 point rally from yesterday’s RTH low will likely just be a “dead cat bounce” and the selling will resume to the first lower target at 2037s-2035s zone then 2026s/25s, which is a must defend by the bulls otherwise a deeper pull-back/correction is more likely.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Tuesday, June 30, 2015

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Yesterday I mentioned ESU5 2086s-2098s as a key resistance/threshold zone for determining if this week would or would not have potential to see the usual full recovery after a big overnight (OVN) gap down. This zone still remains key for this week but after yesterday’s (Monday) bearish price action the key zone is now at 2084s-2098s.

Today has chance of digesting yesterday which means the possibility of an inside day or a dead cat bounce; this means to not expect the same day with such range and energy as yesterday which also means the potential for runners is low. When the potential for an inside is high it is important to scale out of trades and lock in profits earlier than the norm.

If ESU5 remains above 2053s/52s today there will be good odds for the inside day or dead cat bounce scenarios and if so the first resistance to have an eye on is at 2073s-2075s zone then 2084s-2086s zone.

If ESU5 pushes below 2052 sometime today followed by a breach of yesterday’s low/2047s (which is not a shake) the first lower target for today is at 2038s/37s then the must hold for the bulls to avoid a deeper pull-back/correction is at 2025s/24s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Monday, June 29, 2015

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For three years straight there have been many overnight gap downs to only be fully recovered sometime within the next trading session the following day, and after three years today is going to be very interesting to see if the US stock market can or will again have such a recovery after last night’s (Sunday) opening gap down following the headlines out of Greece over the weekend.

After the cash open today I will have an eye on two ESU5 areas which are 2060s/59s and the key threshold at 2086s-2098s zone; however before being able to reach 2086s and above ESU5 must first also get through the low volume area (LVA) just above 2080s.

If ESU5 is unable to get above 2080s the bulls will then need to defend 2060s/59s otherwise the odds will increase to not have the usual full recovery post a OVN gap down and if so the next lower targets will be at 2049s-2042s zone then a must defend by the bulls at 2026s/25s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Friday, June 26, 2015

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Once again zero bearish overnight (OVN) follow through after a RTH session closing at the lows; not only has this happened twice this week but OVN/pre-market is already indicating the potential for a “yesterday never happened” as RTH approaches. If today is going to be the same usual and scripted Friday of a morning move (up or down) followed by several hours of low energy chop & grind before a scripted late day or last hour ramp into the close there is very good chance I may not even look at a ESU5 chart today and just focus on a more realistic CLQ5 chart.

Right now ESU5 is testing value at 2098s; once/if back in value during the RTH session the 80% Rule will apply to the upside with potential to reach the other side of value at 2106s-2108s zone if first breaching above 2101s/02s. Once/if above 2108s will be when I lose full interest in US equities today. 

If today is not the usual full recovery post a previous bearish RTH session the bears will need to defend anywhere below 2102s; if so 2088s/87s will be the first lower target today then 2082s.If below 2082 the bulls will not be in any danger for real change while holding and closing above 2075-2066 zone. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

#ES_F Update & Levels for Thursday, June 25, 2015

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Although value at 2112s contained ESU5 upside both overnight (OVN) and also in the per-market session it seems buyers I not willing to give up defending the 2100 area until a Greece deal is certain or not; however the bulls are not succeeding to get and hold above today’s initial balance (IB) at 2105s or at least not yet. There is now good chance the RTH session could be range bound between 2108s & 2100s while in Greece wait mode again.

Once/if above 2108s I will expect a move to 2115s-2118s zone or once/if below 2100 the next lower target is at 2096s/95s. If a breach below 2095 the final for the bulls to defend is 2091s-2088s zone in order to avoid the possibility of change.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Wednesday, June 24, 2015

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US stock market still balanced while in wait mode for Greece deal headline.

Due to ESU5 already recovering most of the OVN drop as RTH approaches I will expect two possible scenarios for today; either a straight up move right out of the gate from the cash open to 2117s-2120s zone and then staying balanced between 2020s-2112s or a retest of the overnight (OVN) low at 2108s which will either hold or have a small shake before a slow grind back to balanced and above 2112s just like yesterday followed by several hours of chop & grind while RTH waits on the Greece headline/rumor in order to have the legs to squeeze to new ATHs.

Once/if new ATHs are in the cards or once/if above 2120s the first upside target is at 2025s-2127s zone then 2134s-2136s zone. Only chance for the usual RTH script being negated today is if a move and hold first below 2105; if so 2101s/2100s will be the next lower target followed by a must hold by the bulls at 2097s-2095s. A move/hold/close below 2095/04 is the only hope for the possibility of real change.  

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Tuesday, June 23, 2015

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ESU5 is balanced while above 2112s and likely just in wait mode while waiting on a Greece deal (or not) headline. This means high odds of another scripted and boring RTH session until a Greece deal headline and/or rumor hits the wire which also means to expect nothing more than the same day/every day morning move (up or down) followed by several hours of low energy chop & grind before a late day or last hour bullish move.

Seems week after week the US stock market gets more boring as each week goes by; this is because there is absolutely zero fear and without fear the slow, low volume, low energy grind to new ATHs will continue until the central bank/currency war bubble burst.

For today if ESU5 gets below 2112 during RTH the threshold that needs to hold for the usual scripted market to continue is 2106s-2103s zone. As long as above 2103 the bulls are in no danger of not reaching new ATHs this week; if so 2125s/26s will be the first upside target for today then 2132s.

It is very doubtful to see below 2103 before a Greece headline but if below 2103 either pre or post a Greece headline/rumor the final for the bulls to defend today is 2092s-2088s zone.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

WEEKLY Support Pivot Resistance Levels for $ES_F & $NQ_F

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Updated Hourly Charts of ES, NQ & ETFs with WEEKLY SPR Targets

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@FuturesTrader71 on Overcoming the Obstacles to Consistency

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Fari Hamzei

Playback Link for the @FuturesTrader71 Webinar:

http://hamzeianalytics.com/Educational_Webinars.asp

How Precision Market Timing can help you to nail a High Gamma Trade

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Fari Hamzei

If you saw my Twitter posts starting last Friday after the Close, then my Market Timing Commentary here on Monday Night and then culminating on Wednesday evening with more Twitter Updates, starting about 528 pm Central Time, you knew why I was HEAVY LONG SP-500 Futures (entry 1039) and small amount LONG Nasdaq-100 Futures (entry 1678), holding overnight and into Q3 GDP numbers this morning:

1) McCellan Osc readings for NYSE and NAZZ Markets
2) Down to Up Volume Ratio Spikes
3) Sigma Channels Reading for SPX, NDX, RUT and DJ Trans Indices
4) Put/Call Ratios (dollar weighted) for key High Beta Big Cap stocks
5) Vol of the Vols --- Sigma Channels readings for VXO and VXN
6) Intraday TICK Exhaustion Analysis -- on-the-run

This resulted in gain of 9.5 handles per ES contract on avg -- and max was 11 handles per contract. As you can tell from time & sales data, NQs were also very profitable.

Of course we traded post GDP release -- last long trade taken was exited at 2:57 pm CDT today at 1062 (per our HFT Tweeter Feed).

It was a glorious day and a great week so far. Hope you all enjoyed it. Here are our Timer and Vols Charts as of tonight's Close. Remember, tomorrow is another day and another battle. Go get some rest.

Go YANKEES Go !!

How a pro index futures trader trades ES, DAX, etc

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Fari Hamzei


@FuturesTrader71 Impromptu Webinar on how he trades $ES_F

https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/Educational_Webinars.asp

If this is your first time playing back our GoToWebinar videos, you need to install the Citrix Codec on the top of the page.

How Do I Make Great Futures Trades with ...

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by James Falvo of FINZ.tv

http://finz.tv/posse/2009/09/25/how-do-i-make-great-future-trades-with-hamzei-analytics-hft-service-9-25-09/

Proprietary Indicators and Market Timing Video

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Fari Hamzei

http://hamzeianalytics.com/Educational_Webinars.asp

Scroll down to Sept 26, 2009
Webinar Agenda (Slides) are posted too

Real-Time Lessons with Q&A in Hamzei Analytics High Frequency Trading Chatroom

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Fari Hamzei

Real-Time Lessons with Q&A in Hamzei Analytics High Frequency Trading Chatroom


http://finz.tv/posse/2009/09/24/real-time-lessons-with-qa-in-hamzei-analytics-high-frequency-trading-chatroom-9-23-099-24-09/

Real Time Trading Lessons

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Fari Hamzei

James Falvo and Jeffrey Lin of FINZtv just posted this on the Twitter:


Real-Time Lessons with Q&A in Hamzei Analytics High Frequency Trading Chatroom 9.15.09 :: POSSE Trader Journal http://bit.ly/4eK1zP



I thought you may want to take a peek at it.