Showing posts with label DJIA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DJIA. Show all posts

Saturday, November 24, 2012

Market Timing Charts for Week Ending Friday, Nov 23, 2012

Market Timing Charts for Week Ending Friday, Nov 23, 2012SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Timer Chart: SPX 200-Day MA (1383) was overcome this week and next target now becomes 1416 (+1 sigma) which should signify the move up is about to get traction -- then more importantly, the  50-bar MA at 1426 (and within +1 to +2 sigma) is the KEY TARGET.  

We like the color and slope of CIs here.  Worth noting is McClellan Oscillators are at +145 for NYSE and +98 for NASDAQ.  We have ways to go before these readings become overbought.

Last Friday's outside bar reversal in SPX was a very effective bullish signal. The day before, on Nov 15th, the McClellan Oscillator registered -272.  This is a typically fairly close to the "launch-pad" mode.  We had one last year the day before Thanksgiving (Nov 23rd) which followed by 750 pts move in DJIA in three trading days.

Wyckoff Chart:  DJ Utils price action is still alarming while DJ Trans is back up to its 50-day MA.  And RUT is about to close above its 200-day.  RISK is coming back in, albeit, very slowly.  Fiscal Cliff is the issue, ioho.

SP1_momo Chart: On Friday Close, our DAILY timing model went to a BUY.  We are now on BUY-BUY (WEEKLY & DAILY).   The reversal came at SPX -2 sigma on weekly chart.

Our momo Indicator closed at +6.90.  We will be watching for +10 line as a short-term overbought line-in-the-sand.

TRIN Chart:  NYSE's 5-day TRIN is fast approaching a SELL signal (short-term over-bought) while NASDAQ's is crossed that threshold.

VIX & VXN Chart: Volatility Indices have peaked.  Keep an eye on their CIs' slope and color.

WEEKLY Support, Pivot & Resistance (SPR) Levels:   As you see we are beginning a move up.  We will update this chart via @HunterKillerSub Monday within the first hour of RTH, so you will have the key SPR levels for next week.

Above are the WEEKLY SPR Levels for 30-year(T-Bonds Futures), TLT (30-yr ETF) and 10-year (T-Notes Futures) -- courtesy of our HFT Bonds Chart Streamer.  Again, we will update this chart on @HunterKillerSub within the first hour of RTH, so you will have the key SPR levels for next week.

And last, but not least, here are the key SPR Levels for major ETFs which will be update Monday within the first hour of RTH via @HunterKillerSub.

And for the MAC+ enthusiasts, here is our beloved MAC+ Indicator.  As you notice, this past week, MAC+ needed no JP5.  It led the ES pretty much every day by about 30-seconds and kept us out of trouble.  Friday's performance was outstanding as volume was thin and MAC+ unrelenting.

Long Live AWACS .........

This week, Percent Components of SPX above their respective 200-day MA, rushed back up over its 50-day MA.  20-day MA at 68% is the next target. We are in a congested area and this indicator is givig no clear signal, yet.  A move above 75% is worth watching.

Bottom Line:  This Thanksgiving and last, while similar in structure, they do not offer same price action.  The Fiscal Cliff has put a damper on stocks and made bonds rally.  While we believe the Fiscal Cliff will be avoided in its pure form, the immediate road ahead should be viewed with higher expectations of volatility, tax selling and news-driven chaotic trades.

Have a great weekend ..............

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Stock Market Timing Charts

Stock Market Timing ChartsSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Timer Chart: Down Volume to Up Volume Ratios are not at capitulation levels but CIs are flat. 1380 is 200-day MA and next key test for SPX.  NDX today broke 200-day with AAPL totally unloved.

Wyckoff Chart: As you all recall from our last market timing webinar, our main concern here has been the sell-off in DJ Utils in the last two weeks. And, today we saw DJIA, DJ Trans & RUT punch thru their respective 200-day MAs.
SP1_momo Chart: Our weekly and daily timing models for SPX are still BUY on WEEKLY and BUY on DAILY (as of yesterday close). If 200 bar MA is punched thru (1380), next target becomes 1343.  Keep in mind, these levels are adaptive.  

Vol of the Vols Chart: Very minor bump in vol indices.  Data still does not support any specific scenario yet.

No signal on TRIN Chart.

MAC+ Chart: Our MAC+ [synthetic] indicator was outstanding today. It was the main reason we were done trading for the day before 0900 CT.  Just look at the 5-min MAC+ (right hand side chart) avalanche staying within -1 to -2 sigma channels.  The 30-min MAC+ also went straight down (center chart).

As we pointed out on Saturday on @HunterKillerSub, next target is 55%.  Today we closed at almost 61%.

Bottom line:  We should continue lower till Down Volume to Up Volume Ratios signal a capitulation.

Saturday, April 19, 2008

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Fari Hamzei

"And, Nostradamus, shall lead them...."

With SPX and NDX closing at two sigma, and McClellan Oscillator readings of 168 and 94, we are a bit stretched. But there is huge bid to the market and I doubted this bid will wane till we go thru AAPL Earnings Report on Tuesday AH.

DJIA, having gone thru our 12,700 multi-month channel breakout target, is now poised to hunt down the current levels of +3 sigma (12,987) and 200 Day MA (13,093) confluence.

By the way, next Wednesday morning, Alexis Glick, the very cute & very smart anchor (a five sigma event by itself) for FOX Business Network has invited me to her "The Opening Bell" segment @ their NYC HQ, so there will be no mid-week commentary from me. Alexis, a former head of NYSE Floor Operations for Morgan Stanley & Co and a Columbia grad, is as smart as they come. We just linked her blog to to this blog.

Sunday, March 9, 2008

A Few 30 Minutes Charts Worth Noting

A Few 30 Minutes Charts Worth NotingSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Brad Sullivan

These charts were posted on Thursday March 6, 2008 at 1215 CST in our SuperPlatinum Virtual Trading Room.

Thursday, May 31, 2007

Equity Index Update

Equity Index UpdateSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Brad Sullivan

The index markets reversed overnight worries from a Chinese decline and pushed significantly higher. In fact, the SPX joined the All-Time High Club as the index finally pushed through the 1527ish previous high close registered in March of 2000. Now the index has the intraday highs of 1552 and change in its sights. Without question yesterday’s sharp move caught many traders flat-footed. Given the China news, and the fact that this time there was a catalyst for the decline (raising the stamp tax on stock transactions from 0.1 to 0.3%) it should have come as no surprise that the indices were not going back down the Feb. 27th path. However, to predict new highs across much of the board was not something many were thinking when the SPM was trading around 1516.

And there lies the proverbial rub of the index trade in our current climate. By most measures we are overvalued/stretched and should be looking for a moderate decline. However, the indices keep on chugging higher and for those fighting the tape it has been a painful experience both psychologically and financially. As I pointed out last week in a couple of comments, the indices were stretched on a variety of readings…normally this plays out 1 of 2 ways: either a sharp decline or a moderate decline followed by sideways action. Neither of these scenarios is playing out. The decline was shallow, but only a couple of sessions of range oriented action followed. This leaves me with a scenario that rarely comes into play and that is the blow-off rally. Simply put, the DJIA and SPX have POTENTIAL to stretch this rally significantly higher throughout the summer. There are now 3 options on the board and it should make for some very interesting trading over the next 6 to 8 weeks.

For today’s session here are the levels in SPM I am focusing on: The first area of resistance should be found between 1535.50 and 1537.50…above this look for a push towards 1541. I would be looking for the zone between 1540.50 and 1542.50 to establish a moderate short line. Above 1545 on a 30 minute close, the white flag is waived on this transaction.

On the downside, support should be found in our old resistance zone of the low 1530’s…essentially look for support between 1533.50 to 1531. If this zone fails to hold, look for selling to accelerate towards 1528. Support is found within the 1529 to 1527 zone and again from 1525 to 1524. Clearly any move towards this area would leave many scratching heads.

All told, with the month end and tomorrow’s employment report, I would asses the odds of a significant move higher or lower as remote. Keep it close to the vest, but be ready to play if something changes during the session.

Friday, May 25, 2007

Equity Index Update

Equity Index UpdateSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Brad Sullivan
Thursday May 24, 2007

The SPX index failed to close above the All-Time High close yesterday, and for the third consecutive session this index could not generate any “follow” buying. Accordingly, late selling has hit the market each session, pushing the index below its ATH close from March of 2000. The question on everybody’s mind is pretty simple…are we beginning to move into a resistance area that will hold prices down for the next few weeks?

On any technical measurement, the indices are clearly overbought – IN THE SHORT TERM. Consider the performance of the major indices from their respective March trading lows (seems so long ago doesn’t it?) to their recent highs. The DJIA is up about +12.8%, the Midcap 400 is up 11.5%, the SPX is up 11.2%, the NDX is up 9.9% and the Russell 2000 is higher by +8.8%. All of this taking place in about 9 trading weeks. That is a tremendous rally in both net change and velocity (measured in time). The odds are favoring a pause/contraction/slowing of this move. However, let’s keep in mind that ODDS only tell part of the story and if this is a stealth/blow off move to the upside there is plenty of room left in higher price zones.

As for today’s trade, the housing reading at 9:00cst should add some intraday volatility and the Durable Goods reading was able to push the SPM from -2.50 at 1523 to the current +0.50 at 1526. In addition, all eyes remain squarely focused on the holiday coming up this weekend as well as any happenings in China, where it appears that Mr.Greenspan does not have the same pull as he did several years ago. His overtly bearish comments on the Chinese market produced a settlement of -0.5% in their session…not exactly the earth shaking response one would anticipate.

Here are my levels for the SPM today…We are called to open within my key support zone from 1524 to 1526, I anticipate this zone to be the transitional area for a red light/green light type of session. Above it, is green light (buying) and below it is red light (selling). Above this zone we should hit resistance between the 1528.50 and 1530 area, followed by 1532.50 to 1534. The levels above 1528.50 have been probed for 3 consecutive sessions with yesterday’s action creating a new contract high…however, the failure to close any of these 3 sessions in positive territory has to be considered a NEGATIVE. Whether or not strong selling appears at LOWER pricing zones remains to be found, however, what should be important from a trading perspective is the ability to sell this market in the lower 1530’s for a move lower by the close of trading. In other words, we are not finding a boat of sellers at 1520 (assuming we get there) but we are finding them at 1533. It is the opposite of momentum, one in which a trader can sell higher highs and profit. Keep this thought in mind the next two sessions.

On the downside…below the opening support zone, 1522 to 1520 is CRITICAL support. If we move below this zone on a 30 minute closing basis it should create a trade towards the bottom end of the old resistance zone 1518.50-1515. That zone is now neutral/transition…below this is key support between 1512.50 and 1510. Barring an outlier news event, I see no reason to chase ‘em down below this level.

I have included a chart on the DJIA and its 200 day MA “extension.” We are holding at the highest levels since the start of 2006, but more importantly, the highest levels since the 1980’s. Is this a sell signal? Possibly, but remember this…in 1999 the NDX went to +51% above its 200 day MA.

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