Friday, June 24, 2016
Friday, June 24, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe
Good morning. I don’t have much to say so my comments will be brief. Yesterday I mentioned my memories from September 29, 2008 when a congressional bank bailout vote was suppose to be approved, and the reaction from surprised traders when it failed. That day, I saw panic when the market got it wrong and I saw a similar expression last night as the “sell the news” became reality.
The ESU6 went limit down at 1999.00 after making a 2119.50 high early in the globex session. What more can be said? My view…well…either there will be some stock dump on the open especially by European funds… or a dip buying rally…and both could be in the cards given enough time.
Levels? Micro levels are not going to be suitable as the volatility has sliced through what may have seemed to be areas of significance. Not sure which macro levels can be trusted either. So I will stick with what we do know. To the downside, the 1999.00 (no asterisks) low, followed by what would be a RTH limit down around 1959.00-1960.00. Upside, the 2043 European high is initial interest marker, followed by 2050, 2085, 2100 and 2120.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Thursday, June 23, 2016
#NFLX Bias & Levels Update for Thursday June 23, 2016 by @mocktrade
NFLX target at the
78.6% Fib (89.80) achieved yesterday along with also reaching the bottom of the wedge today at 88s,
which is likely to now hold ahead of the Brexit vote. If the wedge does not
hold or contain and if NFLX sees more selling today 87.95 will become a potential lower target before 86.50-86.15 zone which includes today’s
daily support (DS3).
For me NFLX has a
ways to go before I can become extremely bullish; the Brexit overall market
reaction will definitely have to work in favor for NFLX buyers. If NFLX can
at least first get back above the 92s/93s area then above last week’s value
area/+95.05 following the Brexit vote I will expect NFLX to then reach the 97s/98s
area, otherwise failing to get above 95.05
will equal odds more in favor for NFLX reaching
the 80s/79s target in the coming
weeks.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
#AMZN Bias & Levels Update for Thursday June 23, 2016 by @mocktrade
I do not currently have a position nor a Strangle in AMZN ahead of the Brexit vote but I am
seeing AMZN as a definite stock
which should be hedged just in case the overall US stock market’s reaction is
bearish for equities following the Brexit vote regardless of stay or not.
What I am taking note to is while AMZN has been the strongest of the FANG stocks (especially compared
to NFLX & GOOGL) AMZN has now also
failed to breakout to new highs for more than 6 straight weeks along with
volume decreasing dramatically over the past 6 weeks as well except during the one
day AMZN sold off a bit this past
Friday.
Decreasing volume at/near ATHs is usually not a good sign for further upside with legs (or at
least is a sign for limited upside) no matter how solid a stocks fundamentals are,
which is also usually a sign odds are more in favor for a meaningful pull-back before
resuming higher.
If not for the potential of a positive market outcome following
the Brexit vote my mindset would definitely be thinking AMZN should be heading to 685s-682s
zone before making another attempt at new ATHs;
however if equities rally post the Brexit vote a AMZN bearish scenario will likely be negated and new ATHs will also be very likely, but with
AMZN struggling to make new highs
for so long (6+ weeks) on decreasing volume I would be hedging my AMZN exposure via short-term Puts if I
was currently in a Long position.
If an AMZN
bearish scenario does follow the Brexit vote and if also breaching below 682s the hedge via Puts would protect
the potential for/if AMZN started to head to the next lower target at 665s-660s zone.
If below 660s the line in sand (LIS)
for buyers would be 649s-647s zone
otherwise odds will favor a move to 630s/29s
and possibly lower.
Ethan Premock Futures & Options Strategist at Hamzei
Analytics, LLC
Thursday, June, 23, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe
Good Morning. Further polls have suggesting more breathing room for the Bremain camp and European equities responded with a solid rally. The FTSE now has its best five day return since the February lows and the S&P Sep futures travelled back up to 2100. I learned on September 29, 2008 to never assume an outcome of a political event and with all the risk on flavor, my concern is after the buy the rumor becomes fact, there will be a sell the news response.
I am still trading small this week without much of a market feel, and the next two days are not generous to conviction minded traders. The results of the Brexit vote will not be known until after hours, any info beyond that fact is unknown to me.
Levels I am watching to the downside are the 2093 (**) low from late this morning, below that I believe the door is open to trade back to the 2089 (**) area which offers next support followed by 2085 (**) then 2078 (***). Upside, is 2098 (**) then the 2102 globex high (*) and I don’t have anything of substance until 2120 (**).
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Wednesday, June 22, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTrader
Good morning. All is quiet, and by equity behaviour this week one wouldn’t have an indication of the possible volatility ahead tomorrow. Globex volume on the September mini is a whopping (sarcasm) 135K at 7:23 CST; and given yesterday’s eleven handle cash range and now globex range trading inside of that, I would expect a very quiet day.
Last I saw, there were four Brexit polls expected to be released today, and to the best of my knowledge, none of them have hit the wires as of yet.
Bias…what bias? Looking for a tight range and to hopefully fade the edges. My concern? Well…quiet day until polls are released, then a whipsaw. Will it happen….I don’t know; the markets seems to have lost interest now as sentiment has turned strongly to the Bremain camp since Sunday. The polls indicate that the British population has swung from a heavy lean to EXIT to now a heavy REMAIN stance. The polls are untrustworthy, and if the EXIT vote passes or polls start suggesting such, it will seem to catch this risk-on market off guard.
Levels to the downside are 2078 (**) I expect to hold on first touch, and then 2074 (*) followed by 2071 (**) and 2059 (***). Upside levels of interest are 2086 (**) then 2092 (**) and 2099 (**).
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
#NFLX Bias & Levels Update for Tuesday June 21, 2016 by @mocktrade
Over the past couple of weeks I mentioned that
if not for the June rate decision being a possible game changer my bias for NFLX was more on the bearish side due to the
auction chart favoring a move/breach below the key 92.00 support.
NFLX has now
breached below the 92.00 support (and did so today) which I now expect NFLX to continue lower while/if holding below weekly value resistance for the remainder of the week just below 93.50 with 95.15-95.70 zone as the line in sand for sellers.
If above 95.70
either pre or post the Brexit vote I will then look at 98s as a potential upside and very important target for buyers to
get through in order for me to fully change to a bullish bias; however for now or
until if/then or until/if first above 95.70
my current bearish bias will remain with potential to reach the 78.6% Fib target at 89.80 before the bottom of the wedge at
88.45-87.95 zone, which will be a
most hold to avoid a possible NFLX disaster
with risk of a move below 80s/79s.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Anlytics, LLC
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Anlytics, LLC
Tuesday, June 21, 2016 Morning Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTrader
Good morning. Global markets still appear to be somewhat resilient as the risk off trade somehow still finds momentum. Yesterday after the close, a couple of Brexit polls were released showing mixed results. With still a large number of voters still undecided, this vote will come down to the wire and uncertainty will persist this week as the markets are held captive by each poll.
In my prospective, it’s hard to imagine the ESU6 making a higher high today and instead I am looking for a lower high and possibly a lower low. At some point, risk concern ought to come back into equities IMHO. There is a Brexit poll to be released at 7:30 am CST (in just a few minutes from what I am hearing) and this of course could shift the balance of equities going into the cash open.
Levels to the downside 2078 (**), 2074 (*) and 2071 (**). Below there the market will aim for a gap fill to 2059 (***). To the upside, 2088 (**) should offer good initial resistance, followed by yesterdays 2092 (**) area high.
My bias is to sell this rally but I will attempt to continue to be as pragmatic as possible and remain on the side of the intraday trend.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
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