Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, September 15, 2015

CLV5 is also in a consolidation wait mode pattern like the overall stock market ahead of the FOMC rate hike decision. CLV5 is now in a perfect set up for a USO strangle while between 46s-43s and especially while trading at/near 44.  

The USO strangle is also being confirmed at the Daily center Sigma and a 50/50 scenario for either 17s or 11s. If CLV5 breaks above 46.05 then above 48s post the FOMC rate decision I will favor a bullish scenario, or if a breach first below 43.35 then below 40s I will favor a bearish scenario.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, September 3, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, September 3, 2015

Now that the dust is settling a bit after Monday’s rally I will be keeping a close eye on CLV5 and looking for a new swing trade &/or strangle opportunity for CLV5/#USO.

My bias is currently more on the neutral side while above 43.00 and below 47.80 and unless a breach of either in the coming days I will most likely start favoring a strangle trade. If above 47.80 I will consider a new swing Short at/near 50.40-51.10 zone or a swing Long at/near 41.85-41.20 zone. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, August 31, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, August 31, 2015

CLV5 bias is now neutral while between 45.30 and 42.85-42.50 zone. If above 45.30 before lower the first upside target that is on the radar is at 46.80 which is a -23.6% Fib target and DR1 as well. Once/if above 46.80 the next upside target I will have an eye on is at 47.95-48.40 zone.

On Friday I did get a profit hedge on to my #USO Long via Call options at the 44.70ish target via short-term Puts which I will hold while/if remaining below 45.30. If above 45.30 I will exit the hedge and then look to re-hedge at higher targets.

If below 42.50 I will definitely keep the hedge on for a potential move to 42.30-41.80 zone where I will look to start scaling out of the Puts/hedge followed by another scale at 41.20-40.90.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, August 28, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, August 28, 2015

Yesterday I tweeted (@mocktrade) that I started a new longer-term swing #USO Long position via Call options and I would add to the position if CLV5 continued trending lower to 36s/35s. I also mentioned I would be more on the bullish side if CLV5 first moved above 41.00 which was the case yesterday.

41.00 is now first support but in order to remain bullish CLV5 must now get and hold above last week’s value area (VA) +43.30 which was basically yesterday’s high. If so I will then have an eye on 44.40-44.70 zone to hedge my current #USO profit with shorter-term #USO Puts. Ideally I would like to go into the weekend with this hedge.

If CLV5 does breach below 41.00 today and then if also breaching below 40.60-40.40 zone my thinking will then go back to adding to the #USO Calls at 36s/35s especially once/if below 39.60-39.30 zone. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, August 20, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, August 20, 2015

If CLV5 can get through the low volume area (LVA) above 43.30 I have an eye on a potential new swing Short via USO Puts just below the CLV5 44.00 level. If reached I will build/add to the position at 44.35 and 44.80 with a stop just above CLV5 45.00.

If CLV5 is unable to reach 44s I will then expect more downside to mid-41s then 39s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, August 12, 2015

I am currently watching 44.55-45.15 zone as the first key resistance for CLU5. All lower 
targets I have been posting and mentioning over the past few weeks have all been achieved so now I am looking for bounces to either re-swing Short and/or confirmation for upside potential from oversold conditions.

If above 45.15 I will then have an eye on last week’s value area high (VAH) at 46.60; until above 46.60 my bias will remain at slight bearish to neutral but if above 46.60 I will then have a bullish bias for a target at 48.00-48.20 zone.

If below 43.00 before higher potential lower targets are at 42.10-41.90 zone then 40s/39s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, August 5, 2015

CLU5 mainly traded sideways yesterday and with index futures already having a big move in the overnight/premarket session CLU5 may be the better one to trade today over equity indexes; unless trapped index Longs use this morning's rally to sell. If CLU5 does have good movement today I will expect either an upside move (with legs) above yesterday’s first resistance at 46.65 or a move (with legs) below today’s first support at 45.70.

If above 46.65 the first upside target is at 47.30-47.40 zone or if below 45.70 the first lower target is at 45.00 then 44s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, August 4, 2015

CLU5 is getting dangerously close to the 44s target mentioned last week and as long as holding below 46.50-46.65 zone there will be high odds of continuing lower to 44s-42s zone especially once/if below 45.50. If below 45.50 the first lower target that is on the radar is at 44.70-44.60 zone.

If above 46.65 the next resistance is at 47.15-47.30 zone. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 31, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 31, 2015

Earlier in the week I mentioned 48.90 being a key level for CLU5 in order to have chance for higher or not. 48.90 was breached but CLU5 is now currently trading back below which means CLU5 is also back below last week’s value area (VA).

CLU5 must now first regain 48.25-48.45 zone then 49.10 otherwise there is still potential to continue lower to 45s/44s and possibly 42s as well especially once/if below 46.80. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, July 29, 2015

First resistance for CLU5 today is at 48.25 then at 48.65; until above either there is still high odds and/or potential for CLU5 to continue heading towards 45s/44s especially once/if below first support at 46.90 then below 46.65-46.45 zone.

If above 48.65 the next upside target for CLU5 is at 49.10-49.20 zone and if above the potential for 45s/44s will likely be negated which will then put 49.75-50.25 zone as the next upside target.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Not much change in my CLU5 thoughts as yesterday; as long as below 48.90 CLU5 is likely to continue stair stepping lower to 45s/44s; however there is some support at 46.90 and until below 46.90 there will be potential to head higher towards 47.85-48.15 zone. If above 48.15 the next upside target is at 48.55-48.65 zone with 48.90 as line in sane (LIS).

If continuing lower the first lower target for today is at 46.15.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options StrategistHamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, July 27, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, July 27, 2015

CLU5 will now have to first get above 48.15-48.35 zone then above 48.60-49.10 zone in order to negate the stair step formation continuing lower to 46.60 then 45s.

If above 49.10 there is a good amount of resistance at 51.05-51.25 zone which must be regained otherwise any rallies &/or pops this week will likely just be intraday Short opportunities. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 24, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 24, 2015

Eye is on 49.80 for CLU5 today if above 49.05; if CLU5 does not breach above 49.80 there is still potential for CLU5 continuing lower to 47.50 (possibly today) then 45s/44s in the coming days/weeks.

If above 49.80 the next area of interest is the low volume area (LVA) at 50.50. Once/if above 50.50 the bulls will surly have 51.40.51.60 zone on the radar as the key area to regain in order to have chance of heading back towards 53s then 55s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#ES_F #NQ_F & #IWM Bias Update & Levels for Thuesday, July 23, 2015

Tweet #ES_F #NQ_F & #IWM Bias Update & Levels for Thuesday, July 23, 2015

Right now all three indexes ESU5/SPY, NQU5/QQQ, and TFU5/IWM have macro lower highs to be Short against, especially in TFU5/IWM which has been a bearish divergence for most of this week other than yesterday.

Today I will be looking to start new swing Short positions in all three indexes if any or all three indexes bounce to +3Sigma or even at center Sigma and I will do so as long as ESU5 holds below 2114s, NQU5 holds below 4635s, or IWM holds below 125.80. Once/if above these mentioned levels I will negate my short-term Short swing bias, and then re-engage at higher mapped out levels depending the daily and 60min Sigma & CI indicators.

Once engaged in the swing index Shorts I will then be looking for ESU5 to breach below 2098s-2094s zone to confirm the Short bias, NQU5 below 4578, and IWM below 123.55 otherwise there will be better chance of more sideways chop and grind before another attempt to make new ATHs.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, July 23, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, July 23, 2015

Until CLU5 is first above 49.75-49.80 zone then above 50.35 there is still potential for lower. If so 48.70 is a potential lower target for today and then 46s/45s in the coming days/weeks.

Although the CLU5 short-term and macro charts are indicating lower I am not stalking a new swing Short until/if at higher levels; I am also not ready to get Long yet either until once/if back above 49.80 or at lower levels.  

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, July 22, 2015

CLU5 is now breaching the key 50 level and until first above 50.50-50.65 zone then above 51 there is potential to head towards 46s in the coming days/weeks.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, July 21, 2015

What was support is now resistance; until CLQ5 gets back above 51s there is still potential for lower with 49.90 as a must hold today otherwise 49.40-49.30 zone then 48.50 are targets likely to be reached before higher.

To negate reaching lower targets CLQ5 must first get and hold above 50.50 to breach the current downtrend channel then also get above 50.75-51.10 zone. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, July 20, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, July 20, 2015

On Friday I mentioned I would have an eye out for a potential shakeout after CLQ5 breached below 51 and right now a shake scenario is not looking so good to get and hold back above 51s.

First support today for CLQ5 is at 50.30 and if breached odds will favor more downside within the current downtrend channel, but if 50.30 holds the bulls will then need to first get above 51.20 then above 51.65-52.05 zone in order to negate lower to 48.50 then 47.40.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 17, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 17, 2015

CLQ5 finally breaches below 51; now I will have an eye out for a potential shakeout just below 51 in order to think bullish which means CLQ5 must first get through and hold back above 50.90-51.50 zone to confirm a shake otherwise 49.80 then 48.50-47.75 zone will be potential lower targets. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, July 16, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, July 16, 2015

The 51s support for CLQ5 remains key for swing Long potential; however current bias is still more on the neutral side while above 51s and below 53s but as I said earlier this week everyday day that goes by above 51 I favor the swing Long potential more and more.

If a breach and close below 51 I also think downside could be limited to 48.50-47.75 zone so my interest in Shorting CLQ5 will not come until higher levels.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC