Showing posts with label Tim Ord. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tim Ord. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

The Ord Oracle on SPX and Gold

The Ord Oracle on SPX and GoldSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Tim Ord

Momentum is the name of the game for now and right now most momentum indicators are still moving higher (NYSE Summation index and Cumulative advance/decline line on chart above). Yesterday the SPX jumped through the 875 resistance and for now the 875 area made provide support. If the Momentum indicators don’t turn down for near term then the market may head to the January high near 940 level. We have draw a line from the 940 range which could turn into a Neckline of a Head and Shoulders bottom where the left shoulder came back at the November 08 lows. If the SPX tests the January highs on higher volume then that would be a very bullish development and give credit to the Head and Shoulders bottom pattern. A pull back still would be expect and could pull back down where the Left Shoulder bottom which is near 740 range. There is an old adage that says “Sell in May and Go away” and may hold true this year also. We will watch the Bullish Percent index, Summation index, Cumulative Advance/decline line and MACD closely for the next clues for a downturn in the market.

Above is the Venture Composite index ($CDNX). This index has around 528 small mining companies that are mostly small gold miners along with some small oil companies. This index is a gold proxy for small junior gold miners’ performance. In the middle window is the ratio between CDNX and XAU. When this ratio is rising is shows that the small gold miners (CDNX) is outperforming the big gold miners (XAU). In generals we expect this ratio to continue to rise for the longer term. What this ratio implies is that the smaller gold companies will outperform the larger gold companies in the months and possible years to come. However, we will wait to buy these issues until the pull back is complete. See next chart.

Above is GDX. We have labeled what we believe is the correct count for Elliott Wave. An Elliott Wave 5 was completed at the February high near 38. Currently GDX is performing a consolidation in the from of an ABC and GDX is about to start the next 5 count down in the “C” leg. The “C” should end near 27 which is also the bottom of Wave 4 and an Ideal place where normally consolidation end. From the 27 level, GDX should start another Elliott wave 5 count up that should not be less then the first Elliott wave 5 count up that started in October 08. The Elliott 5 count up from the 08 low traveled 22 points. Add 22 points to the next possible low near 27, would give an upside target to 47 at a minimum. A lot of times Wave 3 of larger degree (that is what the next wave up will be) is extended. Our view is that it will reach near 57. We still expect a pull back to possible 27 over the next several weeks so we will put off any new buys until then.

Friday, January 4, 2008

Gold and Silver Index (XAU)

Gold and Silver Index (XAU)SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Tim Ord

Above is the weekly chart of the XAU dating back to 1984. Significant lows form in the XAU when Price Relative to Gold ratio reaches below .20. We have market those instances with blue arrows in the Price Relative to Gold window. In all cases that condition marked a low in the XAU and went on to rally and in some cases the rally last over a year and produce over a 100% gain. On December 17 the Price Relative to Gold ratio reached below .20 but closed above .20 on the close of that week. We still consider this a bullish sign as the ratio is picking out a lower degree bullish turn in the market. The last time this ratio on the weekly timeframe closed below .20 was at the August 2007 low which marked the start of the major turn up. Another short term bullish sign is the weekly Stochastic RSI. Since we are dealing with the weekly Stochastic RSI, we are dealing with an intermediate term timeframe. The week of December 17, the Stochastic RSI, closed below .20 and has turned up which implies the XAU was making a low. The weekly bullish Stochastic RSI reading is coming on the heels of major support at 160 on the XAU along with Price Relative to Gold ratio hitting intra week below .20. A major trading range developed in the XAU dating back to 1984 that had support near 60 and resistance near 160. The XAU broke above 160 which should now act as support. One way to get a target price for the next resistance area on the XAU is take the distance between the high and low the trading range and add that number to the breakout area. The distance between the high and low of the trading range is 100 points and add that to the breakout area of 160, a target of 260 is achieved. A major rally up has started on the XAU from the August 2007 low. A minor wave down from the November 2007 highs to December 2007 low end a corrective wave. The next significant high may reach to 260 on the XAU.

Editor's Note: Look for Tim's new book due in February 2008 titled “The Secret Science of Price and Volume” to be published by John Wiley & Sons.

Friday, October 5, 2007

Bull Run in the Silver and Gold Index (XAU)

Bull Run in the Silver and Gold Index (XAU)SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Tim Ord

The $XAU chart above dates back to 1985. At the bottom of the chart is the Price Relative to gold Ratio (PRTG). PRTG ratio measures the premium or discount the $XAU is selling against gold. This ratio identifies when gold stocks are cheap or expensive compared to the yellow metal gold. When PRTG ratio is near .20 or below then gold stocks are out of favor and cheap and at a good buy. When PRTG is near .30 range or higher then gold stocks are in favor and expensive and near a high. The time to buy gold stocks is the transition from cheap heading to expensive. To identify this buying zone, we have drawn a red trend lines connecting the highs on PRTG and where PRTG has exceeded those downtrend lines and have triggered buy signals. These buy signal on the monthly PRTG ratio where triggered in early 1993, late 2001, early 2003 mid 2005 and in the last couple of months a bullish crossover has occurred and has triggered a buy signal and the buy signal is still on going. Even though a “Shakeout” did occur in August of this year the month PRTG buy signal remained intact. Therefore the bigger trend is up.

Above is the Breadth statistics for the HUI as of the close yesterday. We keep tabs on this study because its giving good insight of what is going on the HUI index. The bottom window is the % of stocks above its 50 day moving average. When this percentage is near 0% the market is near a low and when near 100% the market is near a high. The next window up is the % of stocks above its 10 day moving average. Again the same percentages work the same way. When both the 10 DMA and 50 DMA are both at extremes (either near 100% or 0%) the market is near a turn and head in the opposite direction. We have circle in blue where the 10 DMA and 50 DMA where near 100% and helped to pick out the highs in the HUI. Recently both the 10 DMA and 50 DMA turned down near the 100% range and suggest the market was near a short term high. The HUI tested the previous high of 9/21 and the McClellan Oscillator was far below its previous high and a negative divergence similar to the negative divergence at the previous highs on the HUI. The negative divergence on the McClellan Oscillator helps to confirm the 10 DMA and 50 DMA for a short term top. We have support coming in near 160 on the XAU and the next support below that is the 147 range. We will be watching these areas for a bullish setup on the XAU. Also on the last COT (Commitment of Traders) report, the Commercials have back off its bullish stance and now are short term bearish. Also Seasonality for Gold in the month of October is bearish.

Therefore they may be a pull back this month but the pull back should be bought. We have support coming in near 160 on the XAU and the next support below that is the 147 range. We plan to go long the XAU on the next buy signal.

Editor's Note: watch for Tim Ord's upcoming book, "The Secret Science of Price and Volume", to be published by John Wiley & Sons, in February 2008.

Wednesday, August 8, 2007

Rydex S&P

Rydex S&PSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Tim Ord

The following chart is the Cash flow ratio for the Rydex S&P. Since early 2003 bottoms have formed on the SPX when this ratio reached 1.10. Yesterday’s close came in at 1.11 and in bullish territory.

The next chart is the Trin 5 dating back for three years. The Trin or sometimes called ARMS index is the ratio of advancing issues divided by advancing volume then this ratio is divided by declining issues divided by declining volume. The Trin 5 is the closing Trin added up for five days. When the Trin 5 reaches past 7.5 the market is near an intermediate term low. We have marked on the chart with red arrows going back for three years when the Trin 5 reached 7.5 or higher. You can see the Trin 5 has a good history of picking out intermediate term lows. The Trin 5 closed yesterday at 8.18 and implies the NYSE is near or at a bottom now.

The next chart is the NYSE going back for three years with its McClellan Oscillator and Summation index. When McClellan Summation index reaches below -500 it implies the NYSE is very oversold and near an intermediate term low. We have marked on the Summation index with a red arrow when the Summation index reached the bullish -500 range. Once the Summation index turns up from below -500, it implies the NYSE has seen its low. The Summation index has not turned up yet but is in an area where bottom form.

The market is at an important junction and is about ready to start an intermediate term advance. We are long the SPX on 8/2/07 at 1472.20.

Editor's Note: watch for Tim Ord's upcoming book, "The Secret Science of Price and Volume", to be published by John Wiley & Sons, in February 2008.

Thursday, April 12, 2007

NYSE and NASDAQ Markets

NYSE and NASDAQ MarketsSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Tim Ord

The NYSE Market:
Below is the NYSE McClellan Summation index and the McClellan Oscillator dating back for three years. The NYSE market becomes overbought when the Summation index reaches above +3500. The Summation index has been in the +3500 range since last October which implies the NYSE has been overbought since last October. Tops form on the NYSE when the NYSE makes higher highs and the Summation index makes lower highs. Recently the NYSE just tested its previous high of late February and the McClellan Summation index is making a lower high for the third time. The next time the NYSE Summation index turns down it will mark the top in the NYSE.

The NASDAQ-100 market:
A similar bearish setup occurred for the NDX. However, we believe a top is in for this index. There is a gap on the NDX near the 1808 level and that level is being tested on much lighter volume and triggering a bearish signal. Therefore is unlikely NDX will rally through the gap level which implies the February high will be the top. The same bearish scenario is present with the NDX McClellan Summation index as with the NYSE McClellan Summation index. The NDX made higher highs as the Summation index made lower highs. After the second lower high turned down on Summation index as the NDX made higher highs produced the sell signal. This sell signal was triggered near the February high. Strongest part of the decline may come when the Summation index turns down the next time.

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Nasdaq-100 Cash (NDX)

Nasdaq-100 Cash (NDX)SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Tim Ord

Today the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) rallied strongly into our targeted area near 1810 range. We have been targeted the 1810 for the last couple of weeks in that a significant high volume gap form their on 2/27. Most large high volume gaps are tested. High volume Gaps are also like magnets, drawing the market towards them. Once the market gets to the gap the gap turns into resistance. Today’s test is just a bit short getting into the gap level but tomorrow most likely the gap will be tested. If the gap at the 1810 range is tested on 10% or greater lighter volume, and then close below the gap level, a sell signal will be triggered. We have an intermediate term sell signal in force now and the gap test will be a shorter term sell signals.

On chart is of the Nasdaq 100 in the Ord-Volume format. The Ord-Volume format takes the average daily volume in each leg and display that result on the graph with a line chart. The average daily volume in a leg measures the energy that leg has. By comparing the up leg and down leg energy you can see which way the market is pushing. Referring to the Ord-Volume chart, a big expansion of energy came in on the February decline which increased 26% from the previous up leg and shows the trend has turned from up to down. The current rally leg has 21% less energy then the previous down leg and shows the down leg is still dominant and in force. The gap is being tested so far on 30% less volume and implies the gap will hold as resistance. If volume does not pick up to 318m shares tomorrow a sell signal will be triggered.

Today’s is Spring Equinox and can mark significant turns in the market. We are expecting the market to be down most of this year. We have an intermediate term downside target to the 1400 on the NDX which is a 22% decline from current levels.

Thursday, March 8, 2007


NYSE, NASDAQ and GoldSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Tim Ord

NYSE Market:
Below is the McClellan Oscillator for the NYSE.

When the McClellan Oscillator gets below -200 a bounce is likely to materialize for the short term. The Summation index touched the -300 level on the current decline. We have labeled in the past where readings below -300 have produced rallies. Resistance lies near the 9300 which equates to the 1442 range on the SPX and may be the area where the next top forms. Next week is option expiration week which usually has a bullish bias and the SPX could rally into late next week. The bigger trend is down and we are expecting an intermediate term decline to take the SPX down to near the 1140 range. Also notice on the chart above as the NYSE made higher highs the Summation Index made lower highs and this negative divergence help pick out the top of March 2005 top, September 2005 top, May 2006 top and the February 2007 top. We are short the SPX at 1381.95.

Nasdaq 100 Market:
Below is the daily Nasdaq 100, ($NDX) chart.

The NDX McClellan Oscillator has hit into an area where short term lows have occurred in the past (check the NDX chart above). Therefore there is a good possibility the NDX may bounce during option expiration week which is next week. Resistance lies at the gap level that formed near the 1810 range last week. Gaps are like magnets, drawing the market to them. Therefore a possible bounce to the gap level during option expiration week is possible. If the gap at the 1810 range on the NDX is tested on lighter volume then that will create a bearish signal. If a bearish signal is triggered at the 1810 level on the NDX then that would be a good place to add to short positions. We hold an average short position on the Nasdaq at 2378.59. Our downside target on the Nasdaq is near the 1900 level.

Gold Market:
On the recent decline that started from the late February high the energy has increased over 30% compared to the previous up leg going into the late February high and shows there is more force to the downside and implies the trend has turned down. For short term a bounce may materialize. On Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Resistance now lies at the gap level near the 41.30 range and our downside target is the 32 range. The anniversary of last years high comes in May. A lot of the time previous important highs and lows in the past mark important turn in the future. Therefore there is a possibility the market may hold down until the May time frame. The next major impulse wave up may start near the 32 on GDX and 115 range on the XAU. We are neutral on the XAU for now.

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