Attached is a chart of December Euro Currency
futures.
After a dramatic run-up, the contract appears to be in
corrective down trend. We feel the current trajectory could
take us toward an objective of 126.60. This level is both
approximate trend line support and .50% retracement of the
rally that began on 7/24. We are looking at the ECX 127.5-126.5
put spread for 32 tick entry point.
This trade expires Nov 9th
and has a potential maximum gain of 68 tics (100-32=68).
The
fundamental argument includes rising yields in Spain and weaker than expected data from Germany. For several years the pattern
out of Europe has been fairly consistent wherein periods of
relative calm are followed by a rash of negative data and unrest.
It feels like the cycle may be repeating...