Comments on Aussie Dollar by @JimIuorio

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Attached is a daily chart of March Aussie Dollar (ADH3).

Friday's price action showed a clear rejection of a trend failure. This type of technical analysis flies in the face of tradition and is a clear example of the algo headfake.  At present level (103.95), we would adopt a half bullish bias and change that to full on a settle above 104.41.  We would return to neutral on any trade below 103.46 on downside or a trade of 105.35 on upside. The fundamental argument would be continued Fed stimulus coupled with an improving picture in China.

Jim Iuorio

Thoughts on Currency Futures by @JimIuorio

Tweet Thoughts on Currency Futures by @JimIuorio

We are looking at no specific trades yet today but will monitor a couple of formations closely.

The Canadian Dollar appears to be in a corrective upswing in a broader downtrend. I would consider a negative bias if it trades up to 100.08. 

The Aussie Dollar sits precariously on long term trend support.  Trade of 103.38 will be an indication of further weakness.

We will be watching the Yen, as always, for any indication of a bottom or a reversal pattern.

Jim

WEEKLY Support, Pivot & Resistance Levels for $US_F, $TLT & $TY_F

Tweet WEEKLY Support, Pivot & Resistance Levels for $US_F, $TLT & $TY_F

Canadian Dollar Update by @JimIuorio

Tweet Canadian Dollar Update by @JimIuorio

Attached is a daily chart of March Canadian Dollar.

Although we maintain our long bias we would take this opportunity to exit half of position at these levels (101.38).

We are breaking with our initial upside objective because of the gap open and the markets tendency to fill in those gaps.  Also, when the market gives you a gift like this you tend to feel dumb if you don't take some advantage...will come back with a more detailed strategy soon.

 

Happy New Year,

Jim Iuorio

Thoughts on Canadian Dollar

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Attached is a 40 day chart of December Canadian Dollar.

There has been some consolidation at the upper end of a well defined trend channel.  A trade above 100.42 would signal a breakout and we would initiate a long bias.  Upside objective would be 101.20.  Stop out level would be a trade below 99.90.

A rally in Canada would most likely coincide with a continuation of the "risk on" rally that began on Friday.  The current tailwinds for risk assets are hopeful rhetoric on the fiscal cliff and the potential for increased Fed liquidity.

Update for Our Aussie Dollar Position

Tweet Update for Our Aussie Dollar Position

Attached is a 40 day chart of December Aussie Dollar.

On Thursday, we initiated a short bias at 103.06.  Compromise on the "Fiscal Cliff" issue has outweighed Middle East tensions and opened the door to "risk on."  This has provided a tailwind to the Aussie Dollar.  If ADZ2 settles above 103.70, we will abandon our short bias.

Comments on #Aussie #Dollar

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Above is a daily chart of December Aussie Dollar futures.

Since early October the Aussie Dollar has benefited from the perception that China was poised for a significant rebound.  It appears now that the confidence has been shaken. Yesterday's outside day down followed by additional weakness today, suggests further downside. 

We will consider shorting Aussie now (103.06) with an initial target of 101.90. A settlement above 103.65 will stop us out.  Good luck....Jim                 

                                                               

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More on Euro Currency

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Above is a 40 day chart of December Euro Currency.

Yesterday we mentioned a stop-out level of a settle above 127.44.  We reiterate that today.  

It is definitely with some frustration as we feel the fundamental picture for the Euro is still negative.                                        

                                                                

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Comments by @JimIuorio on #Euro #Currency

Tweet Comments by @JimIuorio on #Euro #Currency

Attached is a 30 day chart of December Euro Currency.

Although we still have a bearish sentiment, the relative stagnation over the last 2 days is disconcerting.  At this point, if we get a settlement above 127.44 would cover    

HALF of short position.  With current equity market weakness, we believe that old highs of 124.70 are a reachable objective on the downside.        
                                                                                      

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Comments on Euro Currency

Tweet Comments on Euro Currency

Attached is a chart of the ECZ2.

The RISK OFF trade remains in tact as treasuries and the dollar are bid this morning.

Good news out of china has slowed the Aussie's decline and makes our short bias in the euro that much more attractive. Price action in the ECZ2 is still negative and we would look to take profit on half of our short at 126.25 (approx 50% retracement of the up trend that began in July).            

                                                                                                                                                    

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This free trial is open to all for the rest of 2012.    

                                             

                                  

Update 2 for Euro Currency by @JimIuorio

Tweet Update 2 for Euro Currency by @JimIuorio

Attached is a chart of December Euro Currency (ECZ2).

We maintain our short bias and will do so until we have settlement above 128.25.

We still believe that fiscal cliff uncertainty will force the dollar higher and the market may recycle      European headlines that could disproportionately weaken the Euro.  We are not suggesting that there are not real and new problems in Europe.  We are only pointing out the markets tendency to justify moves with hand picked headlines.    

                                                                                                                          

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This free trial is open to all for the rest of 2012.