Friday, June 10, 2016
Another weak session overseas caught up with the S&P as the ESU6 pushed to the 2091 area from Monday afternoon’s low. Today, there will still be considerable roll volume and a light economic calendar, and as been the recent case, the globex range will likely be broader than the RTH range.
For me, Friday’s are the least engaging day of the week, my statistics also show it as the most difficult day to counter trend trade intraday.
Therefore, I will be watching the 8:30 opening print and lean toward buying intraday dips above the open, and selling rallies below the open. The one exception could be if the contract opens weaker, I will look for a first hour low to buy.
Upside levels are the 2092-2094 (*) range where price consolidated late this morning followed by the 2098-2100 (***) area offers very heavy resistance, first touch of this area creates a good opportunity to short. Above that 2106 (**) would likely find price exhausted and offer solid resistance.
To the downside, 2087 (*) is first area of support followed by 2084 (*) and last Friday’s post NFP low of 2074 (**). If price managed to reach that 2074 area, it would likely show some exhaustion and dip buyers would pile in infront of next week expiration week which is statistically bullish.
Posted by Hamzei Analytics, LLC at 9:18 AM
Thursday, June 9, 2016
Normally trading/holding below weekly value is a no brainier for me to look for Short trade entries but with the June rate decision next week (which will be an absolute game changer for both sides) I am forced to engage in a Strangle strategy rather than a naked Short trade.
As long as NFLX holds within the 98.60-96.80 range today/tomorrow I will most likely engage in a new NFLX Strangle with a September expiration; very possible for me to do so by day’s end today (June 9th). If so I will then be looking for a breach above 101s/102s or a breach below 90s/89s following the June FOMC rate decision.
Posted by Hamzei Analytics, LLC at 2:08 PM
Posted by Hamzei Analytics, LLC at 11:47 AM
Note: I am still trading the Jun mini (ESM6) and my levels will reflect accordingly.
After two days of sub 10 handle RTH ranges today continues the low globex volume, light economic calendar as the index futures roll takes place. I’m not expecting much range today but some price deteriation would not seem out of place as buyers have been unable to extend the range higher.
The floor at this time seems to be in the 2106.50 (**) area with this mornings low at 2108.50. I think this area is worth a look on first touch in today’s regular session but I expect a second touch to lead to a breakdown to 2099.50 (*) and then to 2094.50 (***) where I would expect to see significant support today.
Looking to the upside, there is a great deal of chop from 2114.00 to 2118.00 this week and I would expect early morning gains to be limited to that range. Bears needs to ensure a lower high in that area while bulls need for this mornings globex low to remain a higher low.
For me, I am leaning to looking to sell the 2114.00 – 2118.00 area on first touch and at the moment lean more to selling an opening range below 2110.00 or buying above 2110.00.
Posted by Hamzei Analytics, LLC at 9:21 AM
Wednesday, June 8, 2016
Posted by Hamzei Analytics, LLC at 11:45 AM
Overnight, the ESM6 traded to yesterday’s globex low of 2106.60, bouncing there and maintaining a bid during a weak European session, then reaching a 2114.50 high, just 3.5 handles from Tuesday’s high. If you caught the afternoon video, I suggested that as long as that level held, I considered yesterday afternoon’s selling just “noise,” as buying dried up at a new contract high on a low volume day.
Globex volume is just over 120K into 7:00 am CST while today’s calendar is still relatively light. Heading into the cash open, I maintain my bias for the week. Either look for an early low to buy in the first 90 minutes of the regular session, or buy the open and expect to buy small dips as long as price trades above the 8:30 am CST print. Buy levels to watch are yesterday’s volume POC at 2110.25 (**) and 2106.50 (**). This opens the door to the 2120 target as well as the potential for the weekly R3 at 2128.58.
To the downside, sellers need to push below 2106.50 before I would start to consider selling rallies as a bias. From there, the next levels would be a 2099.50 (*) and then the 2094.50 (***), which I see as significant support of any selling today.
Again, I am not predispositioned to look for fade levels higher, as I don’t intend to fight this higher price action unless I see something at the moment intraday.
Note: Today, I will begin placing asterisks (*) beside levels to designate the intensity of my interest in that price, ranging from one to three asterisks, with one indicating the mildest and three denoting the strongest interest.
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Posted by Hamzei Analytics, LLC at 8:30 AM