Thursday, July 30, 2015

Index #ES_F #SPY & #AAPL #FB Bias Update and Levels for Thursday, July 30, 2015

Index #ES_F #SPY & #AAPL #FB Bias Update and Levels for Thursday, July 30, 2015SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

So far the theme this earnings (ER) season has been rally of good ERs like NFLX GOOGL AMZN GPRO and then fade in the next few trading sessions or if at/near ATHs with high expectations pre-ERs stocks like AAPL and FB stall and/or drop if not blowout ERs.

Putting ERs aside or when ERs are unable to lead the S&P500, SPY, ES-emini index to new ATHs on heavy volume and when Fed events like FOMC this week become the only reason indexes catch a bid and do so on extremely low volume can only mean one thing which is a “topping process” or at least that is how it was pre-QE3. What most people, traders, and investors don’t know is if even when continuing higher new ATHs on very low volume is still a topping process; it’s all about volume to confirm the strength of breakouts and breakdowns.

Without a new catalyst such as ERs bringing in new buyers on heavy volume and when indexes only bid on Fed hope US equities will not be able to push much higher without some sort of meaningful pull-back or correction. Unfortunately my personal belief is QE3 has destroyed the honesty of historical stock market patterns which also unfortunately means the current mindset of the US stock market is BTD will never fail, but just like when no one believed the housing real estate market in 2004-2008 would ever stop reality always catches up and when the time comes the drop in US stocks will likely be a lot more than just a pull-back or correction.

I see the tweets throughout ever trading session and I can tell most people, traders, and investors believe stocks will never crash again; same mindset of most Americans just before the housing bubble burst in 2008 and also just before the bubble burst in 1999/2000 as well. I lived, traded, and bought/sold real estate in both the and housing bubble and I can a sure you this time is no different and is just a normal 7 to 8 year cycle. I will be willing to bet all the guest who go on CNBC and say “this time is different” will be the same guest who say “all signs where there for stocks to crash” which they will do so after the fact.

For now and as I tweeted yesterday (@mocktrade) the only index that breached the lower high threshold was ESU5, and until all others follow the lower higher formation in the indexes and almost all names who have reported ERs should continue as follows:

IWM while below 122.40-122.90 zone 118s remain a potential target.

ESU5 will have to first get and hold below 2080 to head towards 2050s otherwise 2108s-2112s zone more likely.

NQU5 until above 4582s-4585s zone there is potential for lower.

AAPL while below 125s a first potential targets remain at 121.80-121.55 zone then at 117s.

FB while below 97.60 and especially while below 96.75 the lower targets are at 90.40 then 88s.

AMZN must get back above 549/550 to avoid lower.

NFLX must get back above 110.55 to avoid lower.

GPRO must get back above 63.25 to avoid lower.

Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Disclaimer and Terms of Service

© Copyright 1998-2023, Hamzei Analytics, LLC. Hamzei Financial Network is published by Hamzei Analytics, LLC, Naples, FL 34112, (310) 306-1200. The information herein was obtained from sources which Hamzei Analytics, LLC believes are reliable, but we can not and do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Hamzei Analytics, LLC or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities or commodities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Neither Hamzei Analytics, LLC nor its principals intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security or commodity. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security or commodity based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment or trading advice. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or conclusion on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Always consult your financial adviser(s) before making any investment or trading decisions.