skip to main |
skip to sidebar
Showing posts with label
#PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe.
Show all posts
Showing posts with label
#PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe.
Show all posts
Crude $50 gave way, intraday charts showing lower highs and lower lows, now the question is, how sufficient is a 5% pullback?
If the morning is slow to moderate in terms of volatility, I like buying $49.70 with small size, risking .25 to make .50, or selling the $50.45 price risking .25 to make .75.
$51.00 (***)
$50.75 (*)
$50.45 (**) First Higher Target + Bears need to Defend
$50.00 (**) Pivotal
$49.70 (**) First Lower Target + Support
$49.39 (*) Second Lower Target
$49.08 (*) Third TGT + Some Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Crude now having trouble with the $51.00 handle, increasing the likelihood we get a test of the $50.00 psyschological/technical level today. Given the EIA # today, going to have to widen entry criteria at least somewhat depending on volatility.
My ideas for the day do not include holding any position into the 9:30 # without a break even stop. However, a first hour (8:00-9:00 cst) or 10:30 - later test of $50.00 I like buying risking .15 to make .45. I’d also attempt to buy $49.70 anytime today, risking .25 to make .75.
From the sell side, I like selling $51.00 and adding at $51.20, risking .25 on the ave, while targeting .75.
$51.25 (***) TGT 3 + Strong Resist
$51.00 (**) TGT 2 + Stronger Resist
$50.75 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist
$50.50 (*) Early Pivot
$50.20 (*) First Lower Target
$50.00 (**) Second Target + Support
$49.70 (**) Thirdy Target + Support
$49.10 (***)
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Small rally in bond market overnight, but a persistent market trying to lift a bid, another two handles higher and I think it will be a gift for shorts.
As for today, I like shorting the 151’20 price with smaller size and adding at 151’26, risking 16 ticks on the ave to make 32 ticks minimum. As an alternative, I could see having a smaller position buying 150’15 and adding small at 150’04, using a 12 tick stop on the ave to make 24-32 ticks. However, I like the sell much better.
151’26 (***) TGT 3 + Strong Resist Zone Begins
151’20 (**) Higher TGT 2 + Better Resist
151’08 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist
150’31 (*) Early Pivot
150’15 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support
150’04 (**) Lower TGT 2 + Some Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
One of my ideas triggered yesterday, buying $51.10 looking for a .50 move, and we just barely got that overnight, and this morning Crude is looking weak after making a lower high, now it’s making a lower low as it appears that the $50 price could be tested soon.
I think over $50, and I still have to look to buy dips. My idea for the day is buying $50.20 small and adding at $50.00, risking .25 to make .75.
$51.60 (*) Second TGT + Some Resist
$51.30 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist
$51.00 (*) Early Pivot
$50.50 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support
$50.20 (*) Lower Target 2 + Some Support
$50.00 (***) Pivotal
$49.70 (**)
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. Somewhat of a mixed bag since yesterday in the Treasury complex and so the bias has to remain to the trend which is lower. Yesterday, If you took both trade ideas then we did well on both sides, however the short idea from the 150’29 ave need a break of 150’10 to get the full handle, I am bidding 150’13 on half and moving stop to break even.
For today: I only want to be short below 150’10. Only new idea today is selling 151’04 with small size, risking 16 ticks to make 32 ticks.
151’20 (***) TGT 3 + Resist
151’08 (**) TGT 2 + Resist
150’30 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist
150’21 (*) Early Pivot
150’10 (*) First Lower Target + Some Support
149’26 (*) Second Target
149’10 (***) Third Target + Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hello. Crude oil futures been holding the $50 handle as a floor, thus leading to higher prices.
I like buying the $51.10 level, risking .25 to make .50 or selling $52.85 (the halfway marking beween $52.70 and $53.00) risking .25 to make .75
$53.00 (***)
$52.70 (**) TGT 3 + Resist
$52.40 (*) TGT 2 + Some Resist
$52.10 (*) First Higher Target
$51.80 (*) Early Pivot
$51.40 (*) First Lower Target + Small Support
$51.10 (*) TGT 2 + Small Support
$50.20 (**)
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Weakness continuing in the fixed income futures markets overnight, hard to turn the bonds around ahead of the FOMC meeting. This week’s calendar is busy, but nothing that will be a big heavy hitter, as we start to anticipate next week’s meeting.
I like buying 149’14 with smaller size risking 8 ticks to make 16 (minimum) or shorting 150’24 with smaller size and adding at 151’02, risking 12 ticks on the average to make a full 32 tick handle.
151’20 (***)
151’02 (***) TGT 2 + Stronger Resist
150’24 (**) Target above the pivot + Some Resist
150’11 (*) Early Pivot – sets bias
149’22 (*) First Target Below + Some Support
149’14 (**) TGT 2 + Stronger Support = worth a buy with smaller size
148’31 (***)
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Crude taking small breather, shorts feel more comfortable coming back in above $50-$51. Bulls need to build a floor above $50, bears need to return that as a ceiling.
$51.80 (**) TGT 3 + Resist
$51.52 (*) Higher TGT 2
$51.25 (*) First Higher Target + Some Resist
$50.74 (*) Early Pivot – Sets Bias
$50.20 (**) First Lower Target + Support
$50.00 (**) Psychological ## Target 2 + Support
$49.75 (***) TGT 3 + Support
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hello again. The buy the rumor last week seems to be resulting in a sell the news now as OPEC deal seems less certain. I’m watching the Jan 17 contract.
Please note I am settling into giving CL commentary so give me a couple days to “break in” please.
$47.00 (***) Target 2 + Stronger Resist
$46.65 (**) First Daily Target + Resistance
$46.10 (*) Early Pivot – Sets Bias
$45.75 (*) First Lower Target
$45.20 (**) TGT 2 + Some Support
$45.00 (***) Longer Term Pivot
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. Buyers broke through resistance area overnight in European session. Now bulls need to convert that to support and march upward to the contract high, then 2200 this week. Bears, best case perhaps is a failure at the contract high that would push the index future today back down below yesterday’s close.
2200 (*) Big Round Target
2197 (**) Weekly Target on Strength
2192 (**) Initial Daily Target / Can Bears Defend Here???
2185 (*) Top of Support Zone Where Bulls Need to Establish Floor
2182 (**) Bottom of Support Zone
2176 (**) Support Bulls Need To Hold For Weekly Bias
2174 (*) Failure Here Targets Last Weeks Low
2165 (**) Last Weeks Low Area
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Yesterday may have been the slowest day of the year when considering volume and cash hours range and given the light calendar again today, along with weak Globex volume and narrow overnight trade, today may challenge yesterday’s uneventfulness.
At this point, bulls are doing what is necessary, converting the prior ceiling area of 2170-2172 to a floor.
Downside levels. Support area begins with 2176 (*) through 2173 (*), I see an alternative support zone at 2172 – 2168 below this targets 2162 (*)
Higher levels: Above 2178 targets 2180 – 2181 (*) where initial resistance is, then 2183 (*). If above 2183 then target is 2185 (*).
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. Overnight, price action looks somewhat similar to Monday with a bid early in the Asian session followed by selling during the Euro frame. The ESU back in last weeks range as 2160-2155 looks again as support with 2170 as resistance.
The calendar today is slow, and the attention grabber this week is NFP. Best case for bulls is a decisive successful retest of last week’s low area followed by a strong bid pushing the Sep mini to new contract high prints in the cash session. Bears need selling to follow through on today’s open, and to make sure the mid morning bounce is weak and push lower into the close, converting the former 2155 area support into resistance.
I doubt either side will get what they are looking for, futhermore I doubt that even a break of 2155 or 2175 will be much to be excited about. I go into today’s open unbiased and opportunist driven.
Downside prices: 2157 (*) Globex low area ought to represent a fair pivot early, followed by the 2153 (**) area that bulls must hold. If 2153 is converted to intraday resistance then target becomes 2146 (***) where I do expect bulls to hold first touch.
Higher prices: 2167 (**) will be a real test for any rally on the open and above that 2171 (**) will given more resistance. I’m not expecting price to break that area but if so then attention will turn to the 2178 area.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. U.S. equity futures with a muted reaction to BoJ overnight. Today is the EOM trade, July has downside bias EOM historically for equities. For now, still in this range, until it breaks it’s a rinse and repeat of the entire week. Ps. When it does break I think it will headfake.
Lower prices: 2158 (*) support begins 2154 (**) support get’s stronger. *If* ESU somehow converts the 2155 area to intraday resistance then 2146 (***) is the target and where I expect buyers to arrive.
Higher prices: 2163 (*) begins the supply zone, while 2166 (**) represents even stronger supply. *If* somehow 2166 is converted to support intraday then 2170 (*) becomes first target followed by 2172 (*).
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. I could likely copy and paste what I have written the first two day’s of this week. Demand zone is still 2155-60 and supply zone is 2165-70. Trading the open has been the strength this week (at least for me).
Prices below are as follows: 2165 (*) as my early pivot, then initial support at 2160 (*) followed by 2155 (**). A clear break below that targets 2146 (***) where I would expect buyers to come in. Below 2146 I would not be buying.
Above: 2170 (**) seems to be itching for a RTH test how the ESU handles that area will be the tell today for me. Above is 2172 (*) 2175 (*) and 2178 (*) as targets.
Bottom line, it’s Fed day. Best trade will be early before everything goes quiet. Last Fed meeting the reaction was fairly muted and I would not be surprised to see a *relatively* muted reaction today.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. Tight range last week, should be at least *somewhat* better this week with the EOM trade and FOMC.
Downside levels are 2164 (*) which is fair to lean on for a very early buy followed by 2161 (*) and 2157 (**) which was last week’s dip buying marker. Below that is 2154 (*) which is last line of defense before 2146 (***) which is the weekly risk marker for bulls.
Higher levels begin with the 2172 (*) high overnight, followed by the 2177 (**) area where I would expect for gains to reach resistance today.
For the moment, I still prefer to buy the dips until proven wrong, but selling new highs has been working, but I’d do that with smaller size.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. More of the same, light calendar & low Globex volume. European markets not holding a strong bid this morning. Yesterday afternoons price action was somewhat interesting but with no real follow through in the last hour or overnight, it seems to be just orderly action at this point, mere noise.
Downside prices: 2157 (**) for initial support this morning, followed by 2153 (*). Bulls cannot afford to lose the 2153 spot or I’d expect to see at least see a move back to last weeks 2146 (**) spot.
Upside, the 2163 (*) is pivotal early for bulls to cross then first target is 2170 (**) then 2175 (**).
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
