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Good morning. U.S. equity futures with a muted reaction to BoJ overnight. Today is the EOM trade, July has downside bias EOM historically for equities. For now, still in this range, until it breaks it’s a rinse and repeat of the entire week. Ps. When it does break I think it will headfake.
Lower prices: 2158 (*) support begins 2154 (**) support get’s stronger. *If* ESU somehow converts the 2155 area to intraday resistance then 2146 (***) is the target and where I expect buyers to arrive.
Higher prices: 2163 (*) begins the supply zone, while 2166 (**) represents even stronger supply. *If* somehow 2166 is converted to support intraday then 2170 (*) becomes first target followed by 2172 (*).
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. I could likely copy and paste what I have written the first two day’s of this week. Demand zone is still 2155-60 and supply zone is 2165-70. Trading the open has been the strength this week (at least for me).
Prices below are as follows: 2165 (*) as my early pivot, then initial support at 2160 (*) followed by 2155 (**). A clear break below that targets 2146 (***) where I would expect buyers to come in. Below 2146 I would not be buying.
Above: 2170 (**) seems to be itching for a RTH test how the ESU handles that area will be the tell today for me. Above is 2172 (*) 2175 (*) and 2178 (*) as targets.
Bottom line, it’s Fed day. Best trade will be early before everything goes quiet. Last Fed meeting the reaction was fairly muted and I would not be surprised to see a *relatively* muted reaction today.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. Tight range last week, should be at least *somewhat* better this week with the EOM trade and FOMC.
Downside levels are 2164 (*) which is fair to lean on for a very early buy followed by 2161 (*) and 2157 (**) which was last week’s dip buying marker. Below that is 2154 (*) which is last line of defense before 2146 (***) which is the weekly risk marker for bulls.
Higher levels begin with the 2172 (*) high overnight, followed by the 2177 (**) area where I would expect for gains to reach resistance today.
For the moment, I still prefer to buy the dips until proven wrong, but selling new highs has been working, but I’d do that with smaller size.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Good morning. More of the same, light calendar & low Globex volume. European markets not holding a strong bid this morning. Yesterday afternoons price action was somewhat interesting but with no real follow through in the last hour or overnight, it seems to be just orderly action at this point, mere noise.
Downside prices: 2157 (**) for initial support this morning, followed by 2153 (*). Bulls cannot afford to lose the 2153 spot or I’d expect to see at least see a move back to last weeks 2146 (**) spot.
Upside, the 2163 (*) is pivotal early for bulls to cross then first target is 2170 (**) then 2175 (**).
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC