#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, July 2, 2015

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Yesterday CLQ5 just missed the 56.45 target mentioned all week and until first above 57.90-58.20 zone CLQ5 is likely to continue pushing lower today; if so 55.95 is a target then 55.60 55.40 zone.

If above 58.20 the next resistance level is at 58.90 and then key resistance at 59.40.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Thursday, July 2, 2015

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No change in ESU5 levels, bias, and thoughts as yesterday which was somewhat expected being a short holiday week ahead of NFP. Right now ESU5 is balanced between 2078s & 2060s; until either is breached my bias will remain neutral.

Once/if above 2078s the bulls will then need to get through 2084s-2086s zone in order to have upside with legs and potential to re-test 2098s-2100s zone, and/or once/if below 2062s-2060s zone the bears must first get through 2053s/52s for chance to resume selling below this week’s low at 2046s; if so 2037s-2035s zone will be the first lower target then 2026s/2025s.

This week has been a very nice change for two way day-traders from most weeks this year. Even yesterday which started out very choppy ended up giving a good Short and also a good Long; both were +10 points. My hope is that NFP does not give the 2015 bulls an edge otherwise there will be chance that the fun this week (as a two way day-trader) will be short-lived and next week the market will go right back to the usual slow chop & grind RTH sessions during the entire first half of 2015. Rather see the complete opposite during the 2^nd half of 2015.  

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, July 1, 2015

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CLQ5 still seems to be heading towards the 56.45 target while below 59.90-60.00 zone and until first above the low volume area (LVA) at 59.05-59.35 zone there will be better chance of pushing lower to at least 58.25-58.05 zone then a retest of 57.90.

If below 57.90 the next lower for today will be at 57.55. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Wednesday, July 1, 2015

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Finally and very happy seeing good ESU5 two way price action with range and energy so far this week during RTH which is all that matters for traders. Not sure if the rest of the week will be the same with NFP approaching and also being a short holiday week but if the 2^nd half of the year is the exact opposite of the first half everyday does not need to be as good as the past two days.

For today first support for ESU5 is value at 2060s/59s. If holding above value during the RTH session there will be high odds of reaching the key resistance/threshold I have mentioned all week at 2084s-2098s zone once/if above 2077s/78s.

If back in value during RTH the 80% Rule will apply to the downside with potential to reach 2052s-2050s zone. If below value (-2050) the +30 point rally from yesterday’s RTH low will likely just be a “dead cat bounce” and the selling will resume to the first lower target at 2037s-2035s zone then 2026s/25s, which is a must defend by the bulls otherwise a deeper pull-back/correction is more likely.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, June 30, 2015

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CLQ5 still looks to be heading towards the 56.45 target especially while below the low volume area (LVA) at 59.15-59.55 zone.

If above 59.55 the bulls definitely have some work to do to get above 60.15-60.30 zone and until then the potential to reach 56.45 this week will remain intact.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Tuesday, June 30, 2015

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Yesterday I mentioned ESU5 2086s-2098s as a key resistance/threshold zone for determining if this week would or would not have potential to see the usual full recovery after a big overnight (OVN) gap down. This zone still remains key for this week but after yesterday’s (Monday) bearish price action the key zone is now at 2084s-2098s.

Today has chance of digesting yesterday which means the possibility of an inside day or a dead cat bounce; this means to not expect the same day with such range and energy as yesterday which also means the potential for runners is low. When the potential for an inside is high it is important to scale out of trades and lock in profits earlier than the norm.

If ESU5 remains above 2053s/52s today there will be good odds for the inside day or dead cat bounce scenarios and if so the first resistance to have an eye on is at 2073s-2075s zone then 2084s-2086s zone.

If ESU5 pushes below 2052 sometime today followed by a breach of yesterday’s low/2047s (which is not a shake) the first lower target for today is at 2038s/37s then the must hold for the bulls to avoid a deeper pull-back/correction is at 2025s/24s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, June 29, 2015

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Last week CLQ5 was unable to get and hold above the first key resistance at 62s and now looks to be heading to the 56.45 target mentioned last week.

First resistance for today is at 59.55-59.65 zone then at  59.95-60.15 zone; until above these levels/areas CLQ5 will have better chance to retest 58.60-58.30 zone then also have potential to reach 57.60 and lower.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Monday, June 29, 2015

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For three years straight there have been many overnight gap downs to only be fully recovered sometime within the next trading session the following day, and after three years today is going to be very interesting to see if the US stock market can or will again have such a recovery after last night’s (Sunday) opening gap down following the headlines out of Greece over the weekend.

After the cash open today I will have an eye on two ESU5 areas which are 2060s/59s and the key threshold at 2086s-2098s zone; however before being able to reach 2086s and above ESU5 must first also get through the low volume area (LVA) just above 2080s.

If ESU5 is unable to get above 2080s the bulls will then need to defend 2060s/59s otherwise the odds will increase to not have the usual full recovery post a OVN gap down and if so the next lower targets will be at 2049s-2042s zone then a must defend by the bulls at 2026s/25s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, June 26, 2015

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CLQ5 now breaching the 59.25 target mentioned yesterday and also breaching the uptrend line from 56s.

Until first above 59.45 then above  59.70-59.90 zone the targets on the radar remain at 58.30 and 56.45.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Friday, June 26, 2015

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Once again zero bearish overnight (OVN) follow through after a RTH session closing at the lows; not only has this happened twice this week but OVN/pre-market is already indicating the potential for a “yesterday never happened” as RTH approaches. If today is going to be the same usual and scripted Friday of a morning move (up or down) followed by several hours of low energy chop & grind before a scripted late day or last hour ramp into the close there is very good chance I may not even look at a ESU5 chart today and just focus on a more realistic CLQ5 chart.

Right now ESU5 is testing value at 2098s; once/if back in value during the RTH session the 80% Rule will apply to the upside with potential to reach the other side of value at 2106s-2108s zone if first breaching above 2101s/02s. Once/if above 2108s will be when I lose full interest in US equities today. 

If today is not the usual full recovery post a previous bearish RTH session the bears will need to defend anywhere below 2102s; if so 2088s/87s will be the first lower target today then 2082s.If below 2082 the bulls will not be in any danger for real change while holding and closing above 2075-2066 zone. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

#ES_F Update & Levels for Thursday, June 25, 2015

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Although value at 2112s contained ESU5 upside both overnight (OVN) and also in the per-market session it seems buyers I not willing to give up defending the 2100 area until a Greece deal is certain or not; however the bulls are not succeeding to get and hold above today’s initial balance (IB) at 2105s or at least not yet. There is now good chance the RTH session could be range bound between 2108s & 2100s while in Greece wait mode again.

Once/if above 2108s I will expect a move to 2115s-2118s zone or once/if below 2100 the next lower target is at 2096s/95s. If a breach below 2095 the final for the bulls to defend is 2091s-2088s zone in order to avoid the possibility of change.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#CL_F Update & Levels for Thursday, June 25, 2015

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CLQ5 was unable to hold the gains from Tuesday’s pop and until first above 60.35-60.65 zone there is high chance of retracing lower to 59.25.

The bulls must defend above 59.25 otherwise 58.30 and 56.45 will be on the radar as potential lower targets. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, June 24, 2015

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Unless first below 60.50 there is good chance CLQ5 will/should continue higher from the move off the 59.50-ish support yesterday. If so or in order to move higher with ease CLQ5 must first get and hold above 61.30.

Once/if above 61.30 the first upside target will be the low volume area (LVA) at 61.75-ish then the key resistance at 62.10.

If below 60.50 today a must hold to keep a bullish bias is 60.10 otherwise the possibly of move to 59.95-59.80 zone will increase.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Wednesday, June 24, 2015

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US stock market still balanced while in wait mode for Greece deal headline.

Due to ESU5 already recovering most of the OVN drop as RTH approaches I will expect two possible scenarios for today; either a straight up move right out of the gate from the cash open to 2117s-2120s zone and then staying balanced between 2020s-2112s or a retest of the overnight (OVN) low at 2108s which will either hold or have a small shake before a slow grind back to balanced and above 2112s just like yesterday followed by several hours of chop & grind while RTH waits on the Greece headline/rumor in order to have the legs to squeeze to new ATHs.

Once/if new ATHs are in the cards or once/if above 2120s the first upside target is at 2025s-2127s zone then 2134s-2136s zone. Only chance for the usual RTH script being negated today is if a move and hold first below 2105; if so 2101s/2100s will be the next lower target followed by a must hold by the bulls at 2097s-2095s. A move/hold/close below 2095/04 is the only hope for the possibility of real change.  

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, June 23, 2015

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After yesterday’s late day bullish move my bias for CLQ5 is now neutral; however as long as above 59.50 there is better odds CLQ5 will have bullish follow through from yesterday’s upside move. If so and in order to continue higher with ease the high volume area (HVA) at 60.45-60.65 zone must get breached to the upside then 60.80-60.95 zone as well, otherwise CLQ5 may stay balanced/neutral between 60.65 and 59.50.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Tuesday, June 23, 2015

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ESU5 is balanced while above 2112s and likely just in wait mode while waiting on a Greece deal (or not) headline. This means high odds of another scripted and boring RTH session until a Greece deal headline and/or rumor hits the wire which also means to expect nothing more than the same day/every day morning move (up or down) followed by several hours of low energy chop & grind before a late day or last hour bullish move.

Seems week after week the US stock market gets more boring as each week goes by; this is because there is absolutely zero fear and without fear the slow, low volume, low energy grind to new ATHs will continue until the central bank/currency war bubble burst.

For today if ESU5 gets below 2112 during RTH the threshold that needs to hold for the usual scripted market to continue is 2106s-2103s zone. As long as above 2103 the bulls are in no danger of not reaching new ATHs this week; if so 2125s/26s will be the first upside target for today then 2132s.

It is very doubtful to see below 2103 before a Greece headline but if below 2103 either pre or post a Greece headline/rumor the final for the bulls to defend today is 2092s-2088s zone.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Monday, June 22, 2015

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Once again whatever spooked the market one day is magically fixed by the next trading session; unfortunately the hope that the Friday close gave for potential change this week was very short-lived which also means RTH this week will most likely and again be nothing more than the same day/every day scripted market of a morning move (up or down) followed by several hours of low energy chop & grind before a late day or last hour scripted bullish move.

For now ESU5 is trading above value/+2111s and as long as holding above value during RTH new ATHs should come with ease to 2128s-2132s zone, but if below value after the cash open the 80% Rule will apply to the downside with potential to reach 2103s-2100s zone. If below 2100 the threshold today to ensure the usual every day script is 2095; as long as holding above 2095 the RTH BTDers will remain in control today and possibly also this entire week.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Friday, June 19, 2015

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For now the ESU5 overnight (OVN) session is indicating higher; as long as holding above today’s key threshold 2108 more upside will or should come with ease. While above 2108 the upside targets are 2123s/24s then new ATHs at 2128s-2132s zone.

If below 2108 the profile is very thin which will equal good chance to fill and test 2104s/03s. If a breach below 2103 the bulls will still have nothing to worry about as long as remaining and closing above 2101s/2100s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Thursday, June 18, 2015

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The key threshold for ESU5 today is 2084s-2080s zone. As long as holding above 2080 today and also tomorrow there is no need to waste time and energy mapping out lower levels after Yellen once again gave the “all clear” for stocks at her press conference yesterday with “economic data remains too weak to hike rates”; this means logic and reality trading is out the window along with also being a must to be Long or get Long almost anywhere while ESU5 is trading above the 2080 level.

Not if but once ESU5 breaks above 2100/01 the current downtrend will be breached which then puts 2107s/08s as the first upside target for today, and then once ESU5 closes above 2108s the countdown to new ATHs will begin sometime next week.

Not that I was expecting a rate hike announcement yesterday but my personal thoughts are the Fed lowered their GDP forecast to negate the rate hike chatter until Greece is resolved or the Fed already knows what is going to happen with Greece and they cannot or will not raise rates in hope US stocks will ignore the Greece outcome.  

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Wednesday, June 17, 2015

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After yesterday’s straight up plus 34 point ES move from last week’s value area low (VAL) 2063/62 to last week’s value area high (VAH) 2095/96 I will not expect any exciting price action before FOMC later today. For now ESU5 is trading above yesterday’s value area (VA) +2088s and as long as above 2088s/87s there is chance of more upside to 2097s/98s. If above 2098s either pre or post FOMC there will be good chance to reach 2104s/05s today.

If ES gets back in value/below 2088s/87s during RTH the 80% Rule will apply to the downside with potential to reach the other side of value at 2078s/77s if first getting through the first lower target for today at 2083s/82s.

If there is going to be any decent downside today with legs it is highly unlikely to occur before FOMC but if below 2077 post FOMC the final for the bulls to defend is 2071 otherwise the odds will increase for yesterday being nothing more than Shorts covering ahead of FOMC and odds for a move/hold/close sometime this week below the key 2062 will also increase.

My plan yesterday after the cash open was to either get Short if ES held below value/-2071s due to Monday’s overnight (OVN) bearish price action or get Long once/if back in value for the 80% Rule. Unfortunately due to the immediate pop right at the cash open I missed the initial move to the 2083s target I mentioned in the pre-market yesterday so I then considered getting Long if ESU5 re-tested the VAL at 2072s/71s to confirm the Long but the rotation from 2083s only went to 2075s before the bullish trend day grind continued throughout the entire rest of the day (ROD).

I do not and never chase a trade so yesterday ended up being a “sit on hands day” for me. For today I will not be looking to aggressively engage in trades before FOMC unless ES gets back in value and if so I will look for Long opps at the 2083s/82s or 2078s/77s targets before FOMC if indicators confirm the trades.   

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC