Comments for Timer Digest as of Friday, August 8, 2008

Tweet Comments for Timer Digest as of Friday, August 8, 2008

Dear Jim,
As I wrote you two days ago (before the close -- see below), both of those events happened today but not first without a sharp sell-off (yesterday), which brings us to this point:

we did observe outside bar reversals on vol indices (VXO and VXN) today... but our proprietary volume and breadth indicators are not looking very terrific here. putting all of this together and noting that the rally from March 17th low had more upward pressure, we read this as a very skeptical market. considering that seasonality wise, the more volatile part of the year is ahead of us and not behind us, the market may be bracing for another shoe to drop in financial/housing/energy markets.

given that next week is August Options Expiry, we need to see more volume before we can press it. we will, but when it's time (IOHO) !!

I have attached our Vol Charts:


FH

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From: Fari Hamzei [mailto:Fari@HamzeiAnalytics.com]
Sent: Wednesday, August 06, 2008 1:57 PM
To: Jim Schmidt (Timerdiges@aol.com)
Subject: my comments for Wednesday August 6, 2008

we are about to see our SPX channel breakout confirmation...........with a close above 1292.00, STAY LONG or GET LONGER. Volume is key determinant here.

NDX (and QQQQs) will go up to test their 200-day MovAvg in the coming days.


All the best;

Fari Hamzei
Founder
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Comments for Timer Digest as of Friday, August 1, 2008

Tweet Comments for Timer Digest as of Friday, August 1, 2008

Fari Hamzei

With the non-event July Non-Farm-Payroll behind us (except Jobless Rate spiking to 5.7%), the worry is now on GM, MER & C. If you do the math, GM has about 60-day cash on hand to pay its bills. That is awfully tight for a company with $180Bils in Revs. CDO write-downs for MER will force another round of write-downs for C and other major large international banks (22 cents on a Dollar sale by MER vs 50 cents on a Dollar held on books by C, and alike). Vikram Pandit, one of the best and brightest on Wall Street, has an uphill battle ahead of him in the next few quarters. The Credit Bears continue to Rule this Market.

Technically, the market structure has not changed. Look at NDX for month of July. It went completely sideways. The TechLand guidances have been very perturbing to many investors, small and large. The only bright spot seems to be the BioTechs (see BBH components).

Bottom Line: We expect more or less sideways action during the remaining dogs days of the Summer. Come Labor Day and the final push for the Presidential Elections, we should see some follow thru in the Equity Markets. Direction is unknown at this point.

Comments for Timer Digest as of Friday, July 25, 2008

Tweet Comments for Timer Digest as of Friday, July 25, 2008

Fari Hamzei

We are getting cautiously optimistic that we are in the process of building a bottom. While our credits woes are not over yet (see news on Chrysler completely pulling out of Auto and SUV LEASES today and S&P downgrade of FNM & FRE Subordinated Bonds and Preferred Stocks) and summer trading this year could be rather gut-wrenching, we are fully cognizant of the fact that Bear Market Bottoms take time to build. They are not an event. Rather, they are an evolution.

With RUT and NDX catching a bid here today following better than expected news in new home sales, consumer confidence, durable goods and lower crude oil prices, we are hopeful that our Equity Markets will finally make a turn here for good.
Having said that, for now the best advise is to "Stay Defensive and Collapse Your Bet Size" !!!

Below is our Timer Chart.

Comments for Timer Digest as of Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Tweet Comments for Timer Digest as of Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Fari Hamzei

We are going thru a mild rebound here but due to lack of volume, lack of panic and lack of rise in VIX, it is troubling us here.

Stay defensive. The flush is not over yet, in our opinion.

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday, June 20, 2008

Tweet Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday, June 20, 2008

Fari Hamzei

Volatility has increased in line with our projections. We are currently extremely oversold. We should see another bounce this week. Whether it is a dead cat bounce or not we do not know at this point.

In our opinion, this was not a complete FLUSH of the weak longs.

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Tweet Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Fari Hamzei

Our Market Pulse Indicator (MPI) is getting ready to setup for a [ROYAL] FLUSH of the weak longs. Once we are thru that painful process, we should be ready for a blast off. The window is 2 to 5 days. Brace Yourself.

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday, June 13, 2008

Tweet Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday, June 13, 2008

Fari Hamzei



Well, first they told everyone LEH and YHOO were in trouble, and so the market sold hard. By Wednesday night, we were extremely oversold with NYSE McClellan Osc reading of -245. Today, of course, with good retail sales and inline CPI, it was a brand new day, and with MSFT, GS and LEH leading the way, we closed with a -108 reading on the same indicator. We are not out of the woods yet, but the next leg has a positive bias to it -- as long as GS Earnings Report is well received Tuesday morning before the market opens.


NDX is retesting its 200 day Moving Average but key to this market is XLF and XBD behavior (Banks and Broker/Dealers).


Go WSox !!!

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Tweet Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Fari Hamzei

Our Market Pulse Indicator is getting in the rebound region. NYSE McClellan Osc closed at -241 and its NAZZ brethren closed at -141. We are deeply oversold here and next week is June Options Expiration Week. The puts bought in the last few days must go worthless by next week. So expect at least a dead cat bounce here.

The caveat is XLF. The Financials are in deep trouble. Best example is LEH (short bias) and SKF (long bias).

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday June 6th, 2008

Tweet Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday June 6th, 2008

Fari Hamzei

What a day it was........DJIA -394, SPX -43 & NDX -64 !!

As we warned you earlier this week (on Wednesday) to stay nimble as we have a very bumpy road ahead of us. Next week undoubtedly, we shall observe some form of Fed and/or PPT Intervention in our financial markets. But first, we have to go thru Monday and it could be a very tough day.

With Vol Indices at +3 sigma and major equity index averages at -2 sigma, we should be close to a local bottom once NYSE McClellan Oscillator dips below -150. This by no means can be construed as THE bottom for this leg down. We closed today at -110 for this popular indicator.

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday May 30th, 2008

Tweet Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday May 30th, 2008

Fari Hamzei

On Tuesday, it seemed as if the PPT (Presidential Working Group on Financial Markets: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets) was recalled from the Hamptons to buy some SP Futures (by the VEEP), when we dropped below the 1375 levels on the June basis. And, buying they did, ahead of the month end window dressing deadline. By late this afternoon, SP 500 Futures closed the month at 1402.50 at the critical zero(0) sigma level.

Both our Market Pulse Indicator (pointing up), the 5-day vs 10-day TRIN (pointing down) and Vol Indices (easing) point to at least a 1 to 3 days more move upward in this leg. But a failure by SPX (the Cash Index) at 200 day MA (1425.2 area) will be ominous for this fragile market.

So Stay Defensive.........in the mean time, we like select oil services and technology names here.


This and more will be discussed interactively in our webinar on Saturday, May 31st at 11:00 CDT. Click here to get free access: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/222922774

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on May 12, 2008

Tweet Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on May 12, 2008

Fari Hamzei


Today, finally the Shorts were handed their heads, as Nasdaq-100 (NDX) closed above its MR1 (Monthly Resistance One) Level. This is a multi-month breakout and almost a new high for 2008. SPX is poised to do the same shortly (its MR1 is at 1418xx) and then next it will challenge its 200 Day Mov Avg now approximately standing at ~1429.

Stay LONG....we like oil services and select techland names here.

There will be no mid-week comments from me as I will be speaking at The Three Gurus Event (http://www.thethreegurus.com/) in Las Vegas.

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday May 2nd, 2008

Tweet Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday May 2nd, 2008

Fari Hamzei

As we wrote last night for our MSA List Members, we felt that early this week, FED knew the April NFP will come in better than consensus estimate and that is why they signaled they may be done lowering rates for now... historically, any time FED stopped lowering the FF rates, it boded well for all Equities. So, STAY LONG as SPX yesterday broke a multi-month breakout channel...

and Trade with Courage.

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 25, 2008

Tweet Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 25, 2008

Fari Hamzei

With a bid to the Financial (most sold sector in Q1) last two days, we shall stay the course. Our Market Pulse Indicator (MPI) is a bit stretched but with SPX trading very clearly in the Zone (+1 to +2 sigma), all is well with our Long SPX Position on April 10 (~1360). Our next target for DJIA sits at ~13075 (200 day MA) to ~13150 (+3 simga) confluence.

Tweet

Fari Hamzei


"And, Nostradamus, shall lead them...."

With SPX and NDX closing at two sigma, and McClellan Oscillator readings of 168 and 94, we are a bit stretched. But there is huge bid to the market and I doubted this bid will wane till we go thru AAPL Earnings Report on Tuesday AH.

DJIA, having gone thru our 12,700 multi-month channel breakout target, is now poised to hunt down the current levels of +3 sigma (12,987) and 200 Day MA (13,093) confluence.


By the way, next Wednesday morning, Alexis Glick, the very cute & very smart anchor (a five sigma event by itself) for FOX Business Network has invited me to her "The Opening Bell" segment @ their NYC HQ, so there will be no mid-week commentary from me. Alexis, a former head of NYSE Floor Operations for Morgan Stanley & Co and a Columbia grad, is as smart as they come. We just linked her blog to to this blog.

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 11, 2008

Tweet Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 11, 2008

Fari Hamzei

Technically, the damage caused pre-open today by Jeff Immelt & Co was heavy, GE being the 3rd largest US company by market cap. SPX closed below zero sigma (20 day MA) and NDX stopped exactly at zero sigma. McClellan Oscillators closed at -30 and -36 for NYSE and NAZZ, respectively. With this backdrop, next week could be pretty tough for the longs. We have Q1 Earnings, Tax Selling and April OX. Sounds like the script was written in a backroom of Central Casting.

As you know, we went long as of Thursday close (1360.54). While we are not panicking yet, nonetheless, we are alarmed at the huge miss by one of the most reliable reporting companies (and still the only original member of Dow 30).

But next week is another week, and God willing, we shall fight another battle.

Notice of the Change of Our Market Bias

Tweet Notice of the Change of Our Market Bias

Fari Hamzei


From: Fari Hamzei [mailto:Fari@HamzeiAnalytics.com]
Sent: Friday, April 11, 2008 4:42 AM
To: Jim Schmidt (Timerdiges@aol.com)
Subject: Timer of the Year Competition



Dear Jim,

We are going LONG SPX as of Close of Thursday, April 10 @ 1360.54.
Please confirm the receipt of this email.




All the best;


Fari Hamzei
Founder
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

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This Timer Chart is for our readers.

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 4, 2008

Tweet Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 4, 2008

Fari Hamzei

As of this writing (1 hour before the close on Friday, April 4th), we are in an extremely overbought condition (+195 reading on NYSE McClellan Osc and +137 for NASDAQ) -- thus, a pause is in order next week before the April OX, the following week!!!

Given that the equity markets reacted well to the March Non-Farm Payroll's -80K bad news, this tell us that six months down the road, we should be trading higher. Again we re-iterate our belief that the bad news is priced in and the Street is viewing the FED rescue of BSC from a near catastrophe as pro-active.

On a pull-back, we plan to go long SPX again for your coveted "Timer of the Year Competition."

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Editors' Note: Per March 31st, 2008 Issue of Timer Digest, Fari is ranked 1-1-2 in the Nation among 150 market timers. That is 1st in the last 3 months, 1st in the last 6 months and 2nd in the last 12 months.

Notice of Change of Market Bias

Tweet Notice of Change of Market Bias

From: Fari Hamzei [mailto:Fari@HamzeiAnalytics.com]
Sent: Tuesday, April 01, 2008 2:12 PM
To: 'Timerdiges@aol.com'
Subject: Notice of Change of Market Bias


Dear Jim,

For your coveted Timer of the Year Competition, we are going NEUTRAL on S&P-500 Stock Cash Index (SPX) at the CLOSE today. Please confirm your receipt of this email.

Fari Hamzei
Founder
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

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Additional notes for our readers:
Our reasoning is very simply -- we are up some 90+ handles since March 17.
It is too good to give up and we are very overbought here with NYSE McClellan Oscillator (A/D Line) reading of ~155 and SPX is at +2 sigma ....Fari

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday March 28, 2008

Tweet Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday March 28, 2008

Fari Hamzei

When the McClellan Oscillators hooked earlier this week, the short-term trade was to sell the market indices. Don't be fooled, the longer trend is still up and we should be oversold shortly as this is all part of the bottoming process.

Stay the course and enjoy the Spring Madness...

Markt Timing Bias Change

Tweet Markt Timing Bias Change

March 17, 2008

Fari,

We have logged your S&P 500 Buy signal as of the 03/17/08 Close.

Thanks,

Jim

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In a message dated 3/17/2008 3:59:26 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time, Support@HamzeiAnalytics.com writes:


Dear Jim,

For your coveted Timer of the Year Competition, we are going LONG S&P-500 Stock Cash Index (SPX) at the CLOSE today. Please confirm your receipt of this email.

Cheers............

All the best;

Fari Hamzei

Founder

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

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