Showing posts with label Michael Blythe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michael Blythe. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 5, 2016
Friday, July 1, 2016
Friday, July 1, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe
Good morning. First day of a new month/quarter tends to lean toward buying, but after a 5% S&P 500 rally from the Monday lows, it’s difficult to balance between what *may* amount to profit taking to close the week and the strong trend which shows no weakness at the moment. So at this point the bias is neutral.
My intentions for the day are simple. The 8:30 CST cash open, above that price I intend to be a buyer only, below the open I could do anything, however since Monday the ESU6 has not seen much action below the RTH opening print.
Downside prices are 2088 (**) which I see as a very good early indicator, followed by 2085 (**) and then 2081 (*). Below 2080 the path to 2075 appears to be very clear of technical debris. To the upside, 2092 (*), 2100 (**) and 2120 (***) are all that has my attention.
Worth noting that It is the Friday before a three day holiday, can’t close the door on it being a quiet day, even though it’s first of the month. After all, a considerable amount of buy power has been used this week.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Thursday, June 30, 2016
Thursday, June 30, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe
Good morning. Impressive resilience by global equities with a continued (but weaker) bid overnight. At this point convictions are likely useless. I bought some lotto puts into the close yesterday (mentioned in the room) from a pure risk/reward viewpoint as a 85 handle rally *seemed* excessive without any pullback.
For bears, they need for the ESU6 lower high in the European session to help push back through the 2056 Globex low and maybe with the quarter end trade, there could be some push back to 2050 (at least)
Bulls, just need a higher low, which gives them a lot of room at this point, price could retrace back to 2040 and bulls be theoretically OK.
Today I’ll be simple. If price is above the cash open then I will only be long, if below the open then I will lean short but be open to buying because for the moment, it is a buyers market.
Levels to the downside are 2062 (**) and 2056 (*). Below 2056 I don’t have anything until 2045 (*). Upside interest is 2067 (*) which I will use as an early risk marker then 2075 (*) followed by 2080 (***) area which I would expect to see considerable resistance.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
Wednesday, June 29, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe
Good morning. Another run higher for global equities last night that helped the ESU6 push up to 2043.50. The mini is now over 60 handles from Monday’s low and 2050 roughly marks the halfway point from last weeks’s high to Monday’s low. I have a difficult time assuming that equities will make a V-shape recovery and expect at least somewhat of a retest of this weeks lows (at some point) while forcing bulls to make a lower high on the daily chart. Having said this, I am still in a macro sell the rallies mode until 2050-2060 proves support. To me, the risk/reward looks favorable for some lotto type puts and I am starting to price week 1 and week 2 options.
Price levels to the downside are: 2032 (**) 2028 (**) 2023 (*) 2019(*) 2014 (***)
Upside prices: 2050 (**) 2054 (**) 2060 (**) and 2064 (***)
For me, 2041 is the pivotal price heading into the cash open and I lean to trading with whomever controls that area.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tuesday, June 28, 2016
Tuesday, June 28, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe
Good morning. Lighter Globex volume on the way back up overnight, 300K at 7:30 am CST as “Turn around Tuesday” features the S&P Case-Shiller and Consumer Confidence later this morning. Yesterday affirmed the sell the rallies prospective and until bulls can push and hold above 2050 I believe this market will find the path of less resistance to the sell side. In this type of environment the Globex trade often become less of conviction and the cash open/close give the most relevant clues, as yesterday both were lower. Having said that, I have to keep an open mind intraday because even if this rally is sold, it may be difficult to find the top to sell.
Levels to the downside are 20003 (*) then 2000 (*) followed by 1994 (**), 1990 (**) and yesterdays 1981 (**) low. Upside prices are 2010 (**) followed by 2020 (**) and then the 2035 (***) area I expect to see as best place for a lower high on a larger time frame.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Monday, June 27, 2016
Monday, June, 27, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe
Good morning. The inability of the ESU6 to hold above the
halfway point (2059.25) of Friday’s Globex range followed by a close Friday
below the cash open, places me in the sell rallies camp heading into this week.
Bears need a break of the 1999 low from Friday while bulls needs a clear bounce
from that area (RTH would be most meaningful).
Volume is about to hit 500K by 7:30 am CST and it looks like
today’s action will not be small. Given this, I prefer to focus on some wider
price objectives rather than micro intraday. With that said my early risk
marker will be the 2005 (*) Globex VPOC. From the intraday prospective, I will
lean to an early buy above or early sell below that price.
To the downside, the 1999 (**) price has barely held overnight
and has to be seen as the clear defining mark for early price action IMHO.
Below that should open the door for a 10 handle move to the 1990 (**) area
which was the March low (ESM6), and then the 1971 (***) price which is the
March low (ESU6) and roughly marks a 150 handle retracement from last week’s Globex
highs.
Upside prices, 2017 (**) high from this mornings Euro session,
followed by 2023 (***) globex high, and 2045 (*) and 2060 (***).
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Friday, June 24, 2016
Friday, June 24, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe
Good morning. I don’t have much to say so my comments will be brief. Yesterday I mentioned my memories from September 29, 2008 when a congressional bank bailout vote was suppose to be approved, and the reaction from surprised traders when it failed. That day, I saw panic when the market got it wrong and I saw a similar expression last night as the “sell the news” became reality.
The ESU6 went limit down at 1999.00 after making a 2119.50 high early in the globex session. What more can be said? My view…well…either there will be some stock dump on the open especially by European funds… or a dip buying rally…and both could be in the cards given enough time.
Levels? Micro levels are not going to be suitable as the volatility has sliced through what may have seemed to be areas of significance. Not sure which macro levels can be trusted either. So I will stick with what we do know. To the downside, the 1999.00 (no asterisks) low, followed by what would be a RTH limit down around 1959.00-1960.00. Upside, the 2043 European high is initial interest marker, followed by 2050, 2085, 2100 and 2120.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Thursday, June 23, 2016
Thursday, June, 23, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe
Good Morning. Further polls have suggesting more breathing room for the Bremain camp and European equities responded with a solid rally. The FTSE now has its best five day return since the February lows and the S&P Sep futures travelled back up to 2100. I learned on September 29, 2008 to never assume an outcome of a political event and with all the risk on flavor, my concern is after the buy the rumor becomes fact, there will be a sell the news response.
I am still trading small this week without much of a market feel, and the next two days are not generous to conviction minded traders. The results of the Brexit vote will not be known until after hours, any info beyond that fact is unknown to me.
Levels I am watching to the downside are the 2093 (**) low from late this morning, below that I believe the door is open to trade back to the 2089 (**) area which offers next support followed by 2085 (**) then 2078 (***). Upside, is 2098 (**) then the 2102 globex high (*) and I don’t have anything of substance until 2120 (**).
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Wednesday, June 22, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTrader
Good morning. All is quiet, and by equity behaviour this week one wouldn’t have an indication of the possible volatility ahead tomorrow. Globex volume on the September mini is a whopping (sarcasm) 135K at 7:23 CST; and given yesterday’s eleven handle cash range and now globex range trading inside of that, I would expect a very quiet day.
Last I saw, there were four Brexit polls expected to be released today, and to the best of my knowledge, none of them have hit the wires as of yet.
Bias…what bias? Looking for a tight range and to hopefully fade the edges. My concern? Well…quiet day until polls are released, then a whipsaw. Will it happen….I don’t know; the markets seems to have lost interest now as sentiment has turned strongly to the Bremain camp since Sunday. The polls indicate that the British population has swung from a heavy lean to EXIT to now a heavy REMAIN stance. The polls are untrustworthy, and if the EXIT vote passes or polls start suggesting such, it will seem to catch this risk-on market off guard.
Levels to the downside are 2078 (**) I expect to hold on first touch, and then 2074 (*) followed by 2071 (**) and 2059 (***). Upside levels of interest are 2086 (**) then 2092 (**) and 2099 (**).
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Tuesday, June 21, 2016 Morning Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTrader
Good morning. Global markets still appear to be somewhat resilient as the risk off trade somehow still finds momentum. Yesterday after the close, a couple of Brexit polls were released showing mixed results. With still a large number of voters still undecided, this vote will come down to the wire and uncertainty will persist this week as the markets are held captive by each poll.
In my prospective, it’s hard to imagine the ESU6 making a higher high today and instead I am looking for a lower high and possibly a lower low. At some point, risk concern ought to come back into equities IMHO. There is a Brexit poll to be released at 7:30 am CST (in just a few minutes from what I am hearing) and this of course could shift the balance of equities going into the cash open.
Levels to the downside 2078 (**), 2074 (*) and 2071 (**). Below there the market will aim for a gap fill to 2059 (***). To the upside, 2088 (**) should offer good initial resistance, followed by yesterdays 2092 (**) area high.
My bias is to sell this rally but I will attempt to continue to be as pragmatic as possible and remain on the side of the intraday trend.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Monday, June 20, 2016
Monday, June 20, 2016 Morning Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTrader
Good morning. Equity futures gapped higher to open last night as Brexit polls showed what seems to be a momentum shift and possibly now a majority of voters favoring to remain in the EU. I suspect from experience that index futures are going to be vulnerable to whatever headline, poll or statement that hits the wires this week, potentially leading to volatile price action. The economic calendar in the U.S. is fairly quiet this week, so the attention is on all Brexit-related matters.
This price action today will likely favor scalpers, but will present to difficulty for intraday position traders such as myself. In my morning plan, what I can rule out is attempting to sell perceived tops or buying perceived bottoms as a matter of conviction. Unless something significant comes to my attention intraday, I will only attempt to buy pullbacks within uptrends, and sell rallies within downtrends. I will use the cash session opening print, as well as the 0 sigma marker and simple higher highs/higher lows and lower highs/lower lows to define the trend.
Levels I am currently paying attention to on the downside are 2084 (**) as an early pivot marker, follwed by 2082 (*) then 2075 (*) followed by last nights 2072 (*) open, and Friday’s 2060 (*) close. These levels are wide, but after last night’s price action, I believe the more macro intraday levels are most reliable.
To the upside, last week’s 2089 (*) high, followed by 2097 (**). Again, micro support/resistance levels are not suitable today IMHO, and these may be considered levels of interest to watch or targets, more than outright support/resistance projections.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
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