#FB Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015

Tweet #FB Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015

For me FB is back to being dead/boring money and seems to always be while trading above 88. However regardless of being boring FB has definitely been one of the strongest &/or did not have much bearish follow through compared to most stocks during the most recent market sell off/pull-back.

Post FOMC rate decision I will have an eye on Daily center Sigma which is also last week's value area low (VAL) at 89.30 to help determine a bias and the potential for continuing higher to the +3Sigma target at 99s/100s once/if first getting above the 93.60 target and then also above 95.40.

If failing to hold above Daily center Sigma the next area which must hold is 85.50 otherwise -3Sigma becomes a potential target at 79s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#NFLX Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015

Tweet #NFLX Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015

NFLX is definitely looking like it is going to need some help from a favorable FOMC rate hike decision especially while trading below last week's value area/-97.45, otherwise the lower targets for NFLX are at 91s, 87s, then -3Sigma target at 78s/77s.

If getting back in value NFLX would then have to make it through and above the other side of value at 101.30 in order to have chance of breaching the current downtrend by getting back above Daily center Sigma at 105s/106s. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#AAPL Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015

Tweet #AAPL Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015

AAPL is getting a nice headline pop today but in order for AAPL to continue higher with ease post the FOMC rate hike decision APPL will need a Daily close above the key resistance at 122.40-122.80 zone which is the bottom of the previous balanced area before the most recent earnings (ERs) drop which is also Daily +3Sigma as well.

Post the FOMC rate hike decision later this week the first key area of support I will have an eye on is last week's value area high (VAH) at 113.30. As long as holding above 113.30 the odds will increase for higher in AAPL this week.

If below 113.30 the line in sand (LIS) is the other side of value at 110.65. If a Daily close below value this week the Daily Sigma is currently showing a -3Sigma target at 99s; however AAPL will also have to get through the low volume area (LVA) at 104s for chance and potential of achieving the -3Sigma target at 99s.      

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Index #ES_F #SPY Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015

Tweet Index #ES_F #SPY Bias Update and Levels for Monday, September 14, 2015

Not expecting any major and/or meaningful moves in any index ahead of the FOMC rate hike decision this week. ESZ5 +30-50pts or -30-50pts from where ESZ5 is current trading should and will likely mean absolutely nothing ahead of this week’s FOMC due to the potential of a rate hike or not.

I still find it completely hilarious (as I have mentioned before in a previous blog post) at how the entire/overall US stock market remains 100% at the mercy to a +1/8^th or +1/4^th (.25) point interest rate hike. I cannot stress enough that a .25pt rate increase will have no dramatic negative impact to the US economy nor will it have any impact to the 82% of Americans who do not participate in the US stock market.

Not only will a +.25 rate hike have zero impart to the US economy a no .25pt rate hike this week (or in December) will not help any of the concerns and uncertainty in global economies especially China. All a .25pt rate hike is to US investors and trades is the likelihood and potential end to easy/free money and the beginning of the end to the “bad econ data is good for stocks” era.

My current thoughts are Shorts are going to cover no matter if the Fed does a rate hike or not due to no rate hike is good for stocks and if a rate hike CNBC will then be none stop that a +.25pt rate hike equals and suggest the US economy is now in the all clear.

Even if the initial reaction to rate hike is bearish I still think the market will find a reason to rally before a real and meaningful trend is determined. This means what will matter and be more important to me is the follow through in either direction and/or rejection reversal post the rate hike decision more so than the initial reaction.

For now the key ESZ5 areas I have an eye on pre-FOMC are 1970s-1975s zone and 1918s-1915s zone, and while in between these areas ESZ5 and the indexes will be in wait mode for FOMC rate decision.

Post FOMC the only chance of follow through to new ATHs is once/if a Daily close above 2032s/33s. A rejection of 2032s/33s or if macro lower highs begin to form below 2032s/33s my macro bias will favor a real correction of 10% or more which will occur in the coming weeks and will also occur during regular trading sessions rather than as a pre-market short-lived flash crash.

If no Daily close above 2032s/33s post the FOMC rate hike decision I will be looking for a Monday pre-market flash crash low test followed by an October low test as well once if below the 1860s-1850s support zone.

ES/S&P500 emini Futures still has a Daily -3Sigma target below -1800 but (and of course) there will definitely be potential for that to change if EZU5 turns to full bull mode post FOMC rate hike decision.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, September 3, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, September 3, 2015

Now that the dust is settling a bit after Monday’s rally I will be keeping a close eye on CLV5 and looking for a new swing trade &/or strangle opportunity for CLV5/#USO.

My bias is currently more on the neutral side while above 43.00 and below 47.80 and unless a breach of either in the coming days I will most likely start favoring a strangle trade. If above 47.80 I will consider a new swing Short at/near 50.40-51.10 zone or a swing Long at/near 41.85-41.20 zone. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, August 31, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, August 31, 2015

CLV5 bias is now neutral while between 45.30 and 42.85-42.50 zone. If above 45.30 before lower the first upside target that is on the radar is at 46.80 which is a -23.6% Fib target and DR1 as well. Once/if above 46.80 the next upside target I will have an eye on is at 47.95-48.40 zone.

On Friday I did get a profit hedge on to my #USO Long via Call options at the 44.70ish target via short-term Puts which I will hold while/if remaining below 45.30. If above 45.30 I will exit the hedge and then look to re-hedge at higher targets.

If below 42.50 I will definitely keep the hedge on for a potential move to 42.30-41.80 zone where I will look to start scaling out of the Puts/hedge followed by another scale at 41.20-40.90.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, August 28, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, August 28, 2015

Yesterday I tweeted (@mocktrade) that I started a new longer-term swing #USO Long position via Call options and I would add to the position if CLV5 continued trending lower to 36s/35s. I also mentioned I would be more on the bullish side if CLV5 first moved above 41.00 which was the case yesterday.

41.00 is now first support but in order to remain bullish CLV5 must now get and hold above last week’s value area (VA) +43.30 which was basically yesterday’s high. If so I will then have an eye on 44.40-44.70 zone to hedge my current #USO profit with shorter-term #USO Puts. Ideally I would like to go into the weekend with this hedge.

If CLV5 does breach below 41.00 today and then if also breaching below 40.60-40.40 zone my thinking will then go back to adding to the #USO Calls at 36s/35s especially once/if below 39.60-39.30 zone. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Index #ES_F #SPY Bias Update and Levels for Monday, August 24, 2015

Tweet Index #ES_F #SPY Bias Update and Levels for Monday, August 24, 2015

On Friday I mentioned that I was thinking a zig zag corrective pattern would be achieved to 1958s for ESU5 sometime this week. I definitely did not think ESU5 would be trading well below 1958 or anywhere at/near the 1900 handle before the cash open Monday morning. However over the past several weeks if I did not say it once I said it 100 times that the day is nearing for the “reality” that US stocks cannot go up forever on the heels of a dovish Fed and the “bad economic data is good for stocks” era.

I now expect all the investors and traders who ignored the fundamentals of both US and Global economic data while the US stock market went straight up since the hope of QE3 back in mid-2012 will now be the ones who tweet or post on blogs the future fundamentals of companies like AAPL, FB, AMZN, TSLA, GPRO, and many others in hope that their stock positions will at least return back to their entry price to get out.

I also expect all the CNBC guest over the past few years who have been piggy backing off a dovish Fed will now be the same who go on TV and say “all signs where there for a crash due to the artificial environment the Fed and central banks created”.

Unfortunately for those who became investors or traders post 2011 where brain washed and trained US stocks will never correct again and investing/trading is like taking candy from a baby; these will be the first to go and out of the bizz followed by at least 50% of the “BTD” chat rooms as well.

Below is an ES chart I posted on twitter during the last week of 2014 in which I mentioned (and have done so many times since then) the profile since the announcement of QE3 is a very thin profile above a macro balanced area compared to the rallies just before the dot.com and housing/financial crisis bubble bursts. This means that when the time comes (which could be now) the drop from the QE3 and/or central bank bubble burst is likely to be much deeper than the previous two bubbles.

During both the dot.com and housing/financial crisis bubbles each formed a macro lower high (red arrows) before their big macro drop/flush. This central back bubble burst is likely to be no different and if so the scenario I am will be looking for is if ESU5 does not have a daily or weekly close above 1958s this week with 2020s as final or line in the sand for the bears I will expect the October low to get breached. If so ES will likely head to the low volume area at mid-1700s where it will bounce and should retest the October low as resistance. If the October low holds as resistance ES will form a macro lower high before heading to the macro balanced area at 1600s/1500s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, August 20, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, August 20, 2015

If CLV5 can get through the low volume area (LVA) above 43.30 I have an eye on a potential new swing Short via USO Puts just below the CLV5 44.00 level. If reached I will build/add to the position at 44.35 and 44.80 with a stop just above CLV5 45.00.

If CLV5 is unable to reach 44s I will then expect more downside to mid-41s then 39s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Tweet Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, August 19, 2015

ESU5 SPY S&P500 went from several weeks of a lower high formation to a macro wedge this week within the 2015 eight month boring range and did so on hope for no ¼ point rate hike in September due to more bad news out of China, Oil making new lows this week, and the lowered guidance from Walmart yesterday.

However and even though breaching the lower high formation the reality of both US and global bearish divergences finally seems to be impacting the potential for new ATHs, which for me that confirmation is not coming from today’s (Aug 19^th) morning sell off but rather due to the fact ESU5 continues and has now failed at getting and holding above Daily center Sigma several times so far in the 2^nd half of 2015. New ATHs are now likely not to be seen unless a very dovish Fed appears (??).

I continue to find it extremely funny (in fact hilarious) at how the entire US stock market is solely and only dependent on a ¼ point rate hike in September (or not) now that 2015 earnings have failed to lead the S&P500 to new ATHs. Everyone knows a ¼ or even a ½ point rate hike after six years of zero interest rates will have little to no impact on the economy and/or any impact to the day to day/pay check to check person which is about 82% of Americans.

What a small rate hike will affect is the easy money the US stock market has made including all of the easy and artificial 800+ S&P500 points on the heels of the “bad is good for stocks” QE3 era. This tells me the other 18% of Americans who participate in investing/trading (including 401ks) could care less about the overall economy and is only concerned about the easy money coming to an end or not, otherwise the reality of global economies, global stock markets correcting, and low oil prices would already have the S&P500 well into a long overdue correction from extremely (and artificial) overbought conditions.

QE3 was nothing more than a way to artificially inflate assets for the “wealth effect” through 401ks which now has the US stock market addicted to the Fed. The “wealth effect” has been so important ever since unemployment hit +9% that I will be willing to bet the government would not waste five years and waste resources to blame a “flash crash” on one trader if a “flash crash” now happened in the opposite direction and was a “flash melt up” for an even better “wealth effect”.

For now the S&P500 remains out of reality due to its Fed addiction but the reality is “reality will catch up” one day just like when realty returned after every American became an expert real estate investor overnight back in 2004-2008. This does not mean stocks like AAPL, FB, TSLA, NFLX, GPRO, DIS, and even TWTR do not have a fundamental “Growth” story and future; it just means these stocks will correct technically regardless of fundamentals when the overall market corrects which is definitely not a matter of “if” and only a matter of “when” reality returns to US stocks.

For the remainder of the week or post Fed minutes I will have an eye on 2088s-2094s zone and 2061s/60s for ESU5, for IWM 121.30 and 118, for NQU5 4546s and 4471s/70s, and for AAPL (a huge market leader) 116.60 and 114.45 then 112.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Friday, August 14, 2015

Tweet Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Friday, August 14, 2015

ESU5 Daily center Sigma is now at 2091s and until a daily close above the Daily center Sigma and also a close above the key resistance zone I mentioned yesterday at 2096s-2098s the lower high formation remains intact. However yesterday I also mentioned 2074s as a key support and if defended the bull case from Wednesday’s reversal rally will likely or should be confirmed.

Buyers did protect 2074s yesterday during RTH but then failed to reach and close above Daily center Sigma which was at 2093s at yesterday’s cash open. Today I will be looking for the same but today’s support I am eyeing is at 2070s/69s unless the Bulls and/or RTH BTDers succeed in getting ESU5 back in value/+2078s; if so the zone which must get breached in order to head towards Daily center Sigma is 2083s-2085s.

If below 2070s/69s before higher the final or line in sand (LIS) for the bulls to defend is 2061s otherwise Wednesday’s rally will be negated and the lower high formation will most likely continue with follow through heading into next week.

Today’s lower high formation threshold for IWM is at 120.75-121.35 zone with a new lower target at 117.40s now that the previous 118s target was reached this week. For NQUS the lower high formation threshold is at 4545s/4546s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Thursday, August 13, 2015

Tweet Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Thursday, August 13, 2015

Today will be all about confirmation to confirm yesterday’s ESU5 rally or if yesterday’s rally will just be a one day event. The ideal scenario for the bull case is a “back test” to value; either a back test to last week’s value area low (VAL) at 2074s or to yesterday’s VAH at 2071s or both. If so and if value holds the bull case will likely be confirmed; however the overnight (OVN) high for ESU5 is exactly Daily center Sigma (yellow) at 2093s and until a daily close above Daily center Sigma the lower high formation I have been mentioning for several weeks will have chance to remain intact.

If ESU5 does get above 2093s today the line in sand (LIS) to keep the lower formation continuing again this week is at 2096s-2098s zone and if reached ESU5 will then have to reverse and close back below Daily center Sigma to avoid the potential of back to the slow, low volume, and chop & grind climb back to new ATHs.

For IWM today’s threshold to remain in the lower high formation is at 121.75-122.10 zone and for NQU5 the threshold is at 4570-4588 zone.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, August 12, 2015

I am currently watching 44.55-45.15 zone as the first key resistance for CLU5. All lower 
targets I have been posting and mentioning over the past few weeks have all been achieved so now I am looking for bounces to either re-swing Short and/or confirmation for upside potential from oversold conditions.

If above 45.15 I will then have an eye on last week’s value area high (VAH) at 46.60; until above 46.60 my bias will remain at slight bearish to neutral but if above 46.60 I will then have a bullish bias for a target at 48.00-48.20 zone.

If below 43.00 before higher potential lower targets are at 42.10-41.90 zone then 40s/39s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Tweet Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Indexes remain in the lower high formation even after yesterday’s extremely low volume rally which for now volume is definitely confirming yesterday was just a Short covering relief rally on the heels of another Greece headline along with help from AAPL trading above last’s value area +116.85.

Not only did ESU5 perfectly form a lower high right at the current downtrend line but the lower high was also formed at Daily center Sigma which will be key for the bulls to regain including also breaching and holding above 2105s as well in order to avoid the lower high formation continuing again this week.

With many individual stocks, sectors, and world stock markets already in correction mode I honestly cannot explain how the S&P500 is still holding within the range of the past eight months other than holding range due to the Yellen Put and/or hope of dovish Fed actions especially now that earnings have failed to lead the S&P500 to new ATHs. However one thing I do know is without volume or a catalyst to equal high volume to new ATHs any new ATHs on low volume will likely just be a repeat of all of 2015 which means new highs will again be short-lived during the topping process.

For today IWM must first regain 123 to negate the lower high formation otherwise 118s is the next lower target, ESU5 must first regain 2096s-2098s zone, and NQU5 must first regain 4586s/87s.  

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Thursday, August 6, 2015

Tweet Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Thursday, August 6, 2015

As bullish as the market felt yesterday after the pre-market ramp following the lite ADP report indexes remain in a lower high formation especially TF/IWM. Earnings were supposed to be the catalyst sending the S&P500 back to making new ATHs but so far the price action in most stocks after reporting earnings has been poor even after an initial earnings rally/pop that fades like in NFLX GOOGL FB & AMZN while almost all other stocks are not getting any type of an earnings rally.

At this point and now that most earnings guidance and most earning reports are not justifying higher stock prices the market is no doubt in some sort of hope that economic data does not improve (pre-market ramp post ADP confirms) so that the Fed remains dovish about a rate hike in the near future in order to keep the easy money in stocks flowing for a fourth straight year in a row. Reminds me of when household incomes did not support the mortgages on stated income loans back in 2004-2008; reality always catches up at some point!!

For ESU5 I continue to watch the 2104s-2108s zone to contain upside for the lower high formation to remain. If so ESU5 must then first get below 2081s-2077s zone then get below 2070 for definite confirmation that the lower high formation is likely to continue today and possibly post NFP tomorrow.

For IWM 125 is still key to remain in the lower high formation and for NQU5 the lower high thresholds for today are at 4618 and 4636.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, August 5, 2015

CLU5 mainly traded sideways yesterday and with index futures already having a big move in the overnight/premarket session CLU5 may be the better one to trade today over equity indexes; unless trapped index Longs use this morning's rally to sell. If CLU5 does have good movement today I will expect either an upside move (with legs) above yesterday’s first resistance at 46.65 or a move (with legs) below today’s first support at 45.70.

If above 46.65 the first upside target is at 47.30-47.40 zone or if below 45.70 the first lower target is at 45.00 then 44s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, August 4, 2015

CLU5 is getting dangerously close to the 44s target mentioned last week and as long as holding below 46.50-46.65 zone there will be high odds of continuing lower to 44s-42s zone especially once/if below 45.50. If below 45.50 the first lower target that is on the radar is at 44.70-44.60 zone.

If above 46.65 the next resistance is at 47.15-47.30 zone. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Tweet Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Tuesday, August 4, 2015

So far the index overnight (OVN) session is still keeping the macro lower high formation intact that was mentioned yesterday which did also play a big role in my Short bias in ESU5 yesterday as well, along with confirmation from bearish divergences in AAPL, Oil/CLU5, and financials. However and once again the bulls found a way to defend an ESU5 bearish close at 2081s which forced Shorts to cover into the closing bell.

If below value/-2084 today I will expect a definite retest of 2081s and if holding again today the bulls could or may avoid further downside for the rest of the week (??) but as long as below 2097s/98s and definitely if holding below 2094s/95s the lower high formation will likely continue lower to today’s first lower target at 2078s/77s then 2071s/70s.

For IWM the first threshold which will need to hold is 123.30 then 124.80 in order to stay in the lower high formation today. For NQU5 the lower high thresholds are at 4614s/15s and then 4645s/46s. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Index #ES_F #SPY & #AAPL #FB Bias Update and Levels for Monday, August 3, 2015

Tweet Index #ES_F #SPY & #AAPL #FB Bias Update and Levels for Monday, August 3, 2015

For now the lower high formation continues again this week in US indexes and also in some key names as well post earnings like AAPL and FB; however the overnight session for index futures and the pre-market session for indexes and stocks has been more on the flat side which means there is no definite confirmation that bearish lower high formation follow through is certain today or at least not yet.

Currently my ESU5 SPX SPY swing bias is leaning more on the Short side against the macro lower high which formed last week at ESU5 2108s. If above 2108s I will negate a shorter-term bearish bias and then start targeting 2114s/15s to start building macro long-term SPY Put positions which I will definitely and aggressively add to the Puts at any new low volume ATH, but if ESU5 gets and holds below the Daily Sigma center (yellow) at 2096s/95s before higher I will expect better chance that the lower high formation will have immediate follow through to the first ESU5 target at 2084s-2082s zone.

For IWM the lower high formation threshold is just below 125, for NQU5 the threshold is at 4646s, AAPL is at 123.90, FB is at 97.60, AMZN is at 549/550, IBB is at 390/391, and GPRO is at 63.30. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 31, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 31, 2015

Earlier in the week I mentioned 48.90 being a key level for CLU5 in order to have chance for higher or not. 48.90 was breached but CLU5 is now currently trading back below which means CLU5 is also back below last week’s value area (VA).

CLU5 must now first regain 48.25-48.45 zone then 49.10 otherwise there is still potential to continue lower to 45s/44s and possibly 42s as well especially once/if below 46.80. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC