Thoughts on #Aussie #Dollar

Tweet Thoughts on #Aussie #Dollar

Attached is a daily chart of ADZ2.

Yesterdays weak close triggered a sell signal in Aussie Dollar.  Stronger than expected economic data from Australia has made that a painful position at the moment.  We would now set 

our stops at 2 separate levels.  If ADZ2 trades above 103.00 we would stop out of half of position and if ADZ2 trades above 103.40 we would stop out of balance....

A side note is that we like to see a little time above the stop level before we pull the trigger in order to avoid an algo head fake where stop hunting programs attemp to flush weaker hands..                

                                                               

                                                               

                                                     

Some further thoughts on #Euro #Currency

Tweet Some further thoughts on #Euro #Currency

Attached is a daily chart of December Euro Currency.

Last week we advocated a long position. We are still comfortable with that position and will 

continue to have an upward bias until a settle below 129.85. 

                                                               

                                                               

                                                               

Thoughts on #Australian #Dollar

Tweet Thoughts on #Australian #Dollar

Attached is a daily chart of December Australian Dollar.

Last week we saw a dissapointing Chinese PMI number and had some comments from an Australian Central Bank official favoring a weaker currency.

Unfortuanately the chart has not yet signaled a short entry point.

If ADZ2 looks like it will settle below 102.34, then we will consider a short position with an near term objective of 101.05 with stop loss on a settle back above 103.50.                                                  

                                                               

                                                               

Thoughts on EUR/USD & CAN/USD

Tweet Thoughts on EUR/USD & CAN/USD

The daily charts in both the EUR/USD and CAN/USD futures are strikingly similar. Both show a consolidation pattern that has continued to compress and is nearing the point where a breakout is imminent...

Although this pattern can precipitate a breakout in either direction, the fundamental story leads me to believe that the upside is more likely.

The ECB has gone "all in" on its bailout strategy and has assured the markets that the Euro will exist, in current form, for the foreseeable future.  Couple that with the pervasive need to unwind long term market shorts and its reasonable to believe that the euro has some upside.  Both currencies will also be affected by the Fed's ongoing dovish stance, which was reiterated recently by another Fed Governor.

In December Canadian dollar (CDZ2) we will look to get long if it trades above 102.30 and then add to those longs above 102.50...A settle below 101.00 and we would be stopped-out...

In the December EuroCurrency we would look to get long above 130.10 and add to those longs above 130.90..a settle below 128.10 is our stop.

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Special Market Report: Oil Prices - Fundamental Data vs. Fear in Libya & Middle East

Tweet Special Market Report: Oil Prices - Fundamental Data vs. Fear in Libya & Middle East

*CORRECTION: Date filmed - Friday, March 4, 2011.  
Dr. Joel Fingerman, founder of http://fundamentalanalytics.com/ joins Hamzei Analytics Educational Video Series from the Floor of the CME Group, to share with us critical oil and gasoline data relevant to the recent $15 jump in crude oil prices from concerns over Libya and the Middle East. Dr. Fingerman notes that the amount of oil Libya supplies is not critical and other OPEC countries can easily replace Libya's production. Also, the U.S. has a high supply of oil and gasoline in stock. So, looking at the NYMEX oil contracts open interest at highs, Dr. Fingerman believes that high oil prices are due to speculation and not based on the fundamentals.




Table of OPEC oil producing countries including Libya

U.S. Oil Stockpile

U.S. Gasoline Stockpile

NYMEX Non-Commercial Net Crude Open Interest

**Filmed Friday, March 3rd at 5:30pm CT from the trading floor at the CME Group.