Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, July 14, 2015

CLQ5 swing bias remains at neutral while above 51s but definitely starting to favor a new swing Long trade more and more each day that goes by holding above 51. I did try to front run a Long entry yesterday against the 51.40 support level but my order was just missed.

Today I will look to do the same and scale into a Long within the 51.70-51.40 zone if reached and if so the first upside target is at 52.85 then at 53.30-53.50 zone.

A breach below 51.40 then if below 50.90 the 49.50-47.75 target zone will then be on the radar.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, July 13, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, July 13, 2015

CLQ5 swing bias remains at neutral while above 51s; however with 51s holding again during the Sunday overnight (OVN) session and also pre-market odds are favoring an upside move to at least the first resistance at 53.50-53.80 zone. If above 53.80 today or this week 54.70-55.10 zone will then be on the radar.

If CLQ5 does push below 51 I will expect upside to temporarily be negated but even so the downside could be limited to 49.50-47.75 zone which means it will likely be better to consider new Shorts from higher levels rather than on a break below 51.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#FXI Update & Levels for Friday, July 10, 2015

Tweet #FXI Update & Levels for Friday, July 10, 2015

Yesterday I was in hope #FXI would reach 43.20-43.75 zone to engage in a new swing Short which I would have done so with a tight stop because if above 43.75 I see potential to 45.05-45.55 zone which would be an even better/more ideal Short entry.

#FXI is close to the 43.20-43.75 zone but being a Friday with potential of Greece and/or Chine weekend headline risk I will hold off until next week before engaging in a #FXI trade. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Mid-day Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 10, 2015

Tweet Mid-day Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 10, 2015

Swing bias for CLQ5 is still neutral between 54s-51s and even more so while below 53.55; however if 51 is not breached soon I will begin to favor a swing Long to 54.70-55.10 zone then 56s once/if above 55.10.

CLQ5 does have some room for lower but downside could be limited to 48.50-47.75 zone if 51 is breached before a meaningful bounce which means swing trades on the Long side from here will likely have higher profit potential than Shorts or my interest in Shorts will not come until at or above 54s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, July 9, 2015

Tweet #PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, July 9, 2015

Yesterday the low 51s was mentioned as a potential support area for CLQ5 and while above a bias will be more on the neutral side while also holding below 54s.

Now that CLQ5 closed above & now trading well above 51s odds favor potential bullish follow through as long as remaining above 52.25-51.45 zone, and while above 51.45 upside targets are at 53.90s then 54.70-55.10 zone.

Once/if upper targets are reached there will still be potential to Short lower high formations anywhere below 56.05-57.30 zone.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Tweet #PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Bias for CLQ5 is now Neutral after reaching the 51s target which now has a first support at 51.15. While above 51.15 the neutral bias will remain until at least pushing and holding above 54.45. If above 54.45 there is still a good amount of resistance at the 56.05 to 57.30 zone before considering a macro bullish bias.

If 54.45 contains CLQ5 upside (or while holding below 53.10) there is still potential for lower and if so 49s then 47s will become the next potential targets.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#ES_F Update & Levels for Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Tweet #ES_F Update & Levels for Tuesday, July 7, 2015

As of now the thin profile and low volume area (LVA) above 2078s is containing ESU5 upside which means there is now very good chance ESU5 is heading to the key 2026s-2020s zone while holding below 2057s/58s this week and definitely while/if holding below 2046s today.

Only a move/hold/close above 2058s will negate lower to 2026s/25s and lower with ease.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Tweet #PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, July 7, 2015

CLQ5 is getting extremely close to the 51s target and while below 53.75 or below 54.40-54.70 zone as line in sand (LIS) 51s will likely get reached sometime today.

If above 54.70 there is still a good amount of resistance from 56.40 to 57.30 to get through before considering a macro bullish bias. If below 51 today/this week 49s will then become the next lower target. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, July 6, 2015

Tweet #PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, July 6, 2015

CLQ5 is starting to get a bit oversold but while below 55.30-55.65 zone there is still potential for lower; if so 53.20s will be the first lower target for today then 51s sometime this week.

If above 55.65 there is a good amount of resistance at 56.40-56.80 zone then 57.30. Only above 57.30 will lessen the chance for CLQ5 reaching 51s and lower this week. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, July 2, 2015

Tweet #PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, July 2, 2015

Yesterday CLQ5 just missed the 56.45 target mentioned all week and until first above 57.90-58.20 zone CLQ5 is likely to continue pushing lower today; if so 55.95 is a target then 55.60 55.40 zone.

If above 58.20 the next resistance level is at 58.90 and then key resistance at 59.40.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Thursday, July 2, 2015

Tweet #PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Thursday, July 2, 2015

No change in ESU5 levels, bias, and thoughts as yesterday which was somewhat expected being a short holiday week ahead of NFP. Right now ESU5 is balanced between 2078s & 2060s; until either is breached my bias will remain neutral.

Once/if above 2078s the bulls will then need to get through 2084s-2086s zone in order to have upside with legs and potential to re-test 2098s-2100s zone, and/or once/if below 2062s-2060s zone the bears must first get through 2053s/52s for chance to resume selling below this week’s low at 2046s; if so 2037s-2035s zone will be the first lower target then 2026s/2025s.

This week has been a very nice change for two way day-traders from most weeks this year. Even yesterday which started out very choppy ended up giving a good Short and also a good Long; both were +10 points. My hope is that NFP does not give the 2015 bulls an edge otherwise there will be chance that the fun this week (as a two way day-trader) will be short-lived and next week the market will go right back to the usual slow chop & grind RTH sessions during the entire first half of 2015. Rather see the complete opposite during the 2^nd half of 2015.  

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Tweet #PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, July 1, 2015

CLQ5 still seems to be heading towards the 56.45 target while below 59.90-60.00 zone and until first above the low volume area (LVA) at 59.05-59.35 zone there will be better chance of pushing lower to at least 58.25-58.05 zone then a retest of 57.90.

If below 57.90 the next lower for today will be at 57.55. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Tweet #PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Finally and very happy seeing good ESU5 two way price action with range and energy so far this week during RTH which is all that matters for traders. Not sure if the rest of the week will be the same with NFP approaching and also being a short holiday week but if the 2^nd half of the year is the exact opposite of the first half everyday does not need to be as good as the past two days.

For today first support for ESU5 is value at 2060s/59s. If holding above value during the RTH session there will be high odds of reaching the key resistance/threshold I have mentioned all week at 2084s-2098s zone once/if above 2077s/78s.

If back in value during RTH the 80% Rule will apply to the downside with potential to reach 2052s-2050s zone. If below value (-2050) the +30 point rally from yesterday’s RTH low will likely just be a “dead cat bounce” and the selling will resume to the first lower target at 2037s-2035s zone then 2026s/25s, which is a must defend by the bulls otherwise a deeper pull-back/correction is more likely.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Tweet #PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, June 30, 2015

CLQ5 still looks to be heading towards the 56.45 target especially while below the low volume area (LVA) at 59.15-59.55 zone.

If above 59.55 the bulls definitely have some work to do to get above 60.15-60.30 zone and until then the potential to reach 56.45 this week will remain intact.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Tweet #PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Yesterday I mentioned ESU5 2086s-2098s as a key resistance/threshold zone for determining if this week would or would not have potential to see the usual full recovery after a big overnight (OVN) gap down. This zone still remains key for this week but after yesterday’s (Monday) bearish price action the key zone is now at 2084s-2098s.

Today has chance of digesting yesterday which means the possibility of an inside day or a dead cat bounce; this means to not expect the same day with such range and energy as yesterday which also means the potential for runners is low. When the potential for an inside is high it is important to scale out of trades and lock in profits earlier than the norm.

If ESU5 remains above 2053s/52s today there will be good odds for the inside day or dead cat bounce scenarios and if so the first resistance to have an eye on is at 2073s-2075s zone then 2084s-2086s zone.

If ESU5 pushes below 2052 sometime today followed by a breach of yesterday’s low/2047s (which is not a shake) the first lower target for today is at 2038s/37s then the must hold for the bulls to avoid a deeper pull-back/correction is at 2025s/24s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, June 29, 2015

Tweet #PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, June 29, 2015

Last week CLQ5 was unable to get and hold above the first key resistance at 62s and now looks to be heading to the 56.45 target mentioned last week.

First resistance for today is at 59.55-59.65 zone then at  59.95-60.15 zone; until above these levels/areas CLQ5 will have better chance to retest 58.60-58.30 zone then also have potential to reach 57.60 and lower.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Monday, June 29, 2015

Tweet #PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Monday, June 29, 2015

For three years straight there have been many overnight gap downs to only be fully recovered sometime within the next trading session the following day, and after three years today is going to be very interesting to see if the US stock market can or will again have such a recovery after last night’s (Sunday) opening gap down following the headlines out of Greece over the weekend.

After the cash open today I will have an eye on two ESU5 areas which are 2060s/59s and the key threshold at 2086s-2098s zone; however before being able to reach 2086s and above ESU5 must first also get through the low volume area (LVA) just above 2080s.

If ESU5 is unable to get above 2080s the bulls will then need to defend 2060s/59s otherwise the odds will increase to not have the usual full recovery post a OVN gap down and if so the next lower targets will be at 2049s-2042s zone then a must defend by the bulls at 2026s/25s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, June 26, 2015

Tweet #PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, June 26, 2015

CLQ5 now breaching the 59.25 target mentioned yesterday and also breaching the uptrend line from 56s.

Until first above 59.45 then above  59.70-59.90 zone the targets on the radar remain at 58.30 and 56.45.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Friday, June 26, 2015

Tweet #PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Friday, June 26, 2015

Once again zero bearish overnight (OVN) follow through after a RTH session closing at the lows; not only has this happened twice this week but OVN/pre-market is already indicating the potential for a “yesterday never happened” as RTH approaches. If today is going to be the same usual and scripted Friday of a morning move (up or down) followed by several hours of low energy chop & grind before a scripted late day or last hour ramp into the close there is very good chance I may not even look at a ESU5 chart today and just focus on a more realistic CLQ5 chart.

Right now ESU5 is testing value at 2098s; once/if back in value during the RTH session the 80% Rule will apply to the upside with potential to reach the other side of value at 2106s-2108s zone if first breaching above 2101s/02s. Once/if above 2108s will be when I lose full interest in US equities today. 

If today is not the usual full recovery post a previous bearish RTH session the bears will need to defend anywhere below 2102s; if so 2088s/87s will be the first lower target today then 2082s.If below 2082 the bulls will not be in any danger for real change while holding and closing above 2075-2066 zone. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

#ES_F Update & Levels for Thursday, June 25, 2015

Tweet #ES_F Update & Levels for Thursday, June 25, 2015

Although value at 2112s contained ESU5 upside both overnight (OVN) and also in the per-market session it seems buyers I not willing to give up defending the 2100 area until a Greece deal is certain or not; however the bulls are not succeeding to get and hold above today’s initial balance (IB) at 2105s or at least not yet. There is now good chance the RTH session could be range bound between 2108s & 2100s while in Greece wait mode again.

Once/if above 2108s I will expect a move to 2115s-2118s zone or once/if below 2100 the next lower target is at 2096s/95s. If a breach below 2095 the final for the bulls to defend is 2091s-2088s zone in order to avoid the possibility of change.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC